« Fun with ZiPs projections for Detroit »
Kurt Mensching
November 3, 2009 at 10:42 AM I mentioned last week Baseball Think Factory has posted its projections for the Tigers.
As always, I take projections with a grain of salt, though the better systems (which this usually is pretty reliable) offer nice ballpark guesses of what to expect.
But since this is the first major projection out for the Tigers, here's a few things of interest/fun I found. Feel free to add more in the comments.
The quote
(T)he team should largely return in 2010, and based on what information we have right now, be the slight favorite in the division.
2010 Projections
- It sees a bounceback for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson after rather poor/injury riddled 2009 seasons. All should return to above average.
- Guillen is an "average" left fielder.
- It's rather skeptical of Alex Avila, projecting an 82 OPS+ (100 is league average). That still puts him above Gerald Laird, whom some expect to bounce back from a bad 2009.
- It really doesn't like Wilkin Ramirez and thinks he'd strike out quite often.
- It puts Ryan Raburn at 27% likely for finishing with .500 slugging. That is the second-best, behind the 48% of Miguel Cabrera. I think a bit too much credit is being given to Raburn's 2009 season.
- Placido Polanco will be slightly below average with the bat (96 OPS+, .292 average, .338 OBP) but "very good" with the glove.
- The system likes Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson a lot more than Rick Porcello. It also likes Jarrod Washburn to be exactly average, which puts him better off than most of the Tigers' No. 4-5 options.
- As for relievers, it really likes Brandon Lyon and Bobby Seay, as well as Rick Porcello Ryan Perry. It actually projects most of the relievers currently in the organization most likely to be on the team to be league average at worst, other than Joel Zumaya (91 ERA+).
Fun comparisons
- Ordonez -- Second most similar is Al Kaline.
- Granderson -- Second most similar is (former Tigers coach) Andy Van Slyke.
- Cabrera -- His first may be Jeff Bagwell, but his third is Bob Watson. Yes, that Bob Watson.
- Avila -- Similar to Tim Derryberry. I point this out because the name made me laugh. The comparison, however, seems unfair.
- Verlander -- His No. 3 is Roger Clemens. His No. 1 is before my time.
Career projections
- Cabrera -- 535 HR, .875 OPS, .295 average
- Granderson -- 256 HR, 127 triples, .254 average
- Verlander -- 4.19 ERA, 232 wins, 3,165 strikeouts
- Jackson -- 4.52 ERA, 2,128 strikeouts


