I’d be surprised if the Tigers didn’t make some kind of trade, perhaps a big one, before the end of spring camp.

The team could — could — be staring at an excess of starting pitchers if Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis perform reliably, which is hardly a stretch. Both have had a history of 200-inning seasons and that record was not fatally wounded by last year’s Robertson-Willis crisis.

Today’s writer at MLB Trade Rumors was not impressed by the logic or any decision for pitching-light Detroit to move somebody out of town.

Willis and Robertson each have considerable negative trade value, as they’ll both make at least $7MM in 2009 and 2010. Unless the Tigers are willing to pay most of that, they’d have to trade one of their other starters: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson or Zach Miner. Trading one of those starters would leave the Tigers with a thin rotation.

Myself, I don’t really see this happening. Neither does MLB.com’s Jason Beck in his blog posting today. And we both came to that thought the same way, though he beat me to the blogging punch on the topic.

On the surface, it appears the Tigers have seven starting pitchers competing for five spots. In reality, if all three competing for the fifth spot are throwing well, it certainly couldn’t hurt to have someone in the bullpen who can get some guys out. I’ve already penciled Miner in to return to his long relief role. I think either Robertson or Willis could prove capable as fighters in the  late innings.

On top of that, I think we’re kind of assuming the best here, that all the pitching candidates will have great springs and force the issue. Willis is the big worry. His pitching skills had been deteriorating even before he came to Detroit, and he was having troubles throwing strikes. Once he arrived in Detroit and the season open, he promptly was injured. And when he came back, he still couldn’t find the strike zone. Robertson, I don’t know. I guess I assume he’ll bounce back from a poor 2008, but he’s not going to return to 2006 form. That was his career year. And Miner? I think he’s probably better as a starter than a reliever. Honestly, I think he’ll pitch fine but won’t win the No. 5 spot because the Tigers need one of their lefties in the role.

And we haven’t even gotten into the contracts. Willis is owed $22M over the next two years; Robertson $17M over two years. Given they’re coming off disastrous seasons, it’s going to drive their price down even if they look like Cy Young in spring training, because what GM is going to get THAT excited over six weeks of work in Florida?

So I don’t really see a big trade coming up this spring. If something does happen, I think it’s going to be Miner who gets moved. But I really hope the Tigers don’t deplete their pitching any more than it already appears to be.

Bonus link: Contract info from Cot’s Baseball Contracts

Related posts

• August 19, 2008 -- Daily Fungo Mike’s Questions: Part 1
• August 23, 2008 -- Nate’s in the bullpen, where he belongs
• August 12, 2008 -- Miner good. Tigers bad.
• July 22, 2008 -- So, they can certainly hit…
• June 10, 2008 -- Willis to Lakeland
• June 10, 2008 -- Willis’ struggles: visual evidence
• June 9, 2008 -- Game 63: Day dreary, D-Train dreadful
• May 22, 2008 -- Dontrelle to the bullpen
• May 18, 2008 -- Willis makes successful start in Toledo
• May 13, 2008 -- Injured Tigers coming along
• April 29, 2008 -- Question of the day: Who does Cruceta replace?
• April 27, 2008 -- Games 24-25: Splitting with the Angels
• April 22, 2008 -- A few upcoming questions
• April 18, 2008 -- Game 16: Tribe catches Tigers by the tail
• April 12, 2008 -- Willis to DL
• April 12, 2008 -- Game 10: Bullpen awes
• March 27, 2008 -- WhatchutalkinaboutWillis?
• March 7, 2008 -- Most important Tigers
• March 2, 2008 -- Tigers weekend wrap
• February 12, 2008 -- Holy Toledo: JB
• February 11, 2008 -- Bunt Singles: Maroth signs minor league deal with KC
• January 16, 2008 -- Robertson signed through 2010
• December 6, 2007 -- Bunt Singles: The news keeps coming
• December 5, 2007 -- Upon further review: mass excitement
• December 4, 2007 -- BLOCKBUSTER! Willis, Cabrera Tigers, but high price
• December 4, 2007 -- Winter Meetings Day 2: Smoke and Mirrors begins

I correctly guessed the top six in the order — per Jason Beck’s blog post yesterday — but messed up the 7-8-9 ever-so-slightly. No problem, easy to correct online, so ST09 is up to date.

Here is my take on why Leyland thinks what he thinks in his first iteration of the order, and a few of my thoughs, as well. I’ve also noted whether they’re right handed (RH), left handed (LH) and switch (S). For simplicity sake, I chose 8th and 9th in the order.

1. Granderson, CF, LH  — Leyland would like to move Granderson down in the lineup, which makes good sense. But there is no other leadoff batter in Detroit right now, so Grandy continues to bat No. 1
   
2. Polanco, 2B, RH — A contact batter, doesn’t strike out much, has a good chance to move Granderson around the bases to set something up. And it seemed to work fine last year.
3. Ordonez, RF, RH — A  continuation from the lineup Leyland used near daily starting in mid-August, Ordonez and Cabrera move up to 3 and 4, while Guillen and Sheffield move down in the order.
   
4. Cabrera, 1B, RH — There was no way the best batter on the team should have been at No. 5 for as long as he was last year. But he was learning AL pitchers. He’s proven he’s ready. Cleanup gets him more at-bats. I’d almost consider having him at No. 3 to eke out a few more, but I like this spot just fine.
   
5. Guillen, LF, S — Guillen can bat lefty. The Tigers are extremely right-handed oriented. This breaks it up better, rather than front-loading it near Granderson. Plus he swings a pretty good bat. This makes a solid 3-4-5 for Detroit that can compete favorably with just about every team. Hopefully continuing to learn a new position doesn’t hinder him at the plate any, but at least he had all winter to work on it.
   
6. Sheffield, DH, RH — Because Leyland has to play Sheffield somewhere. Sheffield is probably not happy about being so low in the order, but battling injuries, his batting does not justify any higher in the order. If he does start to hit, maybe he moves up, or maybe he’s one of the best No. 6 guys in baseball
   
7. Laird, C, RH — The dropoff is suddenly huge. Basically any way you stack it, 7-8-9 is  a black hole, and based on Leyland’s history, is going to be mix around quite a bit. Personally, based on Lee’s figurings on RBI%, I might rather see Inge bat 7th, but it doesn’t matter much. Laird has a higher OBP, higher SLG. Actually his 08 season was pretty comparable to that of Pudge, who moved all over from 7th to 9th.
   
8. Inge, 3B, RH — The left side of the infield bats last. This just goes to show how badly the Tigers wanted to upgrade their defense in that area. Maybe Inge will relax and hit more like 05-06 when he knows his everyday position. Not that it helped him in 07.
   
9. Everett, SS, RH — Slightly better than a pitcher at the plate. The only reason for batting him anywhere but No. 9 is the belief the 9th batter can set the table for the top of the lineup. Everett will set few tables, but that’s OK, he was brought to Detroit for his defense.
   

My overall take is it’s a pretty decent lineup at the top. It’s going to score some runs. Hopefully the guys don’t behind them in the order and figure the next guy can get it done. There was some rumbling that could have gone on in 08.

Obviously, it’s far too right-handed. The Tigers could really have benefited from dumping Sheffield and finding a left-handed hitter. But that wasn’t going to happen, I suppose. As Beck mentions in his post, this helps give Jeff Larish and his lefty power bat an edge for the 25th roster spot over the rightside-hitting Ryan Raburn. In addition, utilityman Ramon Santiago bats lefty. He had a nice 08, but I doubt he is going to continue tearing up the bases. I hope I’m wrong.

What do you think of the batting order? What would you do different?

Bonus link: The most-often used batting orders by the Tigers in ‘08, per Baseball-Reference.com.

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Of course, this makes some sense when you look at the A.L. East and see 90 win teams all over the place. And that makess sense when you look at the makeup of those teams. Still, it all seems a bit pessimistic.

Interestingly, it predicts the A’s to win the West when the Angels finish below .500. Does this weaken PECOTA’s argument or does it see problems in the Angels that the rest of us are missing? (As someone who roots for Oakland as a secondary team, I sure do hope PECOTA gets the last laugh on that one!)

Why do we even pay attention to these standings? For one, PECOTA is pretty good at guessing these things from year to year. It’s not perfect, but how could it be when pitchers and catchers haven’t even reported?

The second reason: Nate Silver. The genius behind FiveThirtyEight, the site which came close to perfect for predicting the presidential election, is the guy behind PECOTA. When it comes to predictive statistical analysis, he’s an All Star bound for the Hall of Fame.

Of course, comparing the presidential election to baseball standings would be an error. For one, what he did in November, while quite impressive, might compared to guessing the final standings with a week remaining in September. He had a lot of built-up, slow-moving data to rely on. Obviously it’s not that easy, or everyone would be as accurate as Silver. But the point is, he didn’t sit down last summer and put out a perfect prediction.

So this PECOTA projection is for entertainment purposes only at this point. It’s an informed guess, but a lot can still change.

** And on the small-world totally random side, Ian of Bless You Boys helped me realize I had Silver’s father as a professor at Michigan State. He was my favorite in the poli sci department, actually, and wrote me a letter of recommendation for grad school. Weird! **

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I’ve added to the blog-hosting softwear so that you can now read Mack Avenue Tigers on your mobile device easier. You could always read it on an iPhone, I know from experience, but it was a bit unsightly. This simplifies it and should work with any phone.

2) Tigers schedule

The Tigers are going to be on TV for all 162 games again this year (Beck’s Blog). Fortunately for Tigers fans who like winning — but unfortunately for the out-of-state fans — as of right now ESPN’s Sunday Night game isn’t one of them. (I cringed every Sunday night game personally). 156 games are scheduled for FS Detroit, six for Fox Saturday games, which pretty much means a state audience only gets them anyway. The spring training dates for FSN are March 16, 19, 22 and 29.

4. Baseball Prospectus names Tigers’ top prospects

No surprise, starting pitcher Rick Porcello is atop the list as a 5-star prospect (subscription required for his discussion). A decent group are 3-star prospects, including relief pitcher Ryan Perry (ranked No. 3). Shortstop Cale Iorg at No. 2 is a bit of a surprise. Kevin Goldstein said the list was hard to compile because the Tigers have so many mediocre prospects.

More: Ian discusses the list at Bless You Boys.

5. Drew Sharp hardly deserves a response

Alex Rodriguez did steroids. You’ve doubtlessly heard about it so much you don’t need to hear about it more. My opinion briefly: Eh, whatever. The whole era is tainted, what’s another? But Drew Sharp takes that a step farther and declare baseball is no longer a sport because A-Rod attempted to enhance his performance. Hyperventilate much? Hyperbole? Or maybe just Sharp trying to draw attention to himself? I suspect the latter. Anyone who’s ever swung at a fast moving baseball knows why it’s a sport. The end.

Related posts

• February 9, 2009 -- Will the Tigers open 2009 with any rookie pitchers?
• March 5, 2008 -- Tigers split squads sweep Pennsylvania
• March 2, 2008 -- Tigers weekend wrap
• December 15, 2007 -- Bunt Singles: Dec 15

Porcello is obviously the interesting one, and has the better chance of the two for going north to Detroit rather than to Double-A Erie. He cruised through his test in Lakeland — his first year in pro ball — with a 2.66 ERA. He only pitched 125 innings, but Verlander only threw 129 in his only year in the minors, so that may not be too big of a deal. Of course, Verlander was three years older than Porcello at that point and finished the year with half the earned runs. Both had great control, but Verlander threw more strikeouts per nine innings, always a good predictor for major league success.

But the main reason we’re talking about Porcello right now is that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was talking about him on the radio,  as reported by MLB.com writer Jason Beck:

“A lot of people in our Minor League system that know Porcello feel that if he goes out there and he gets the ball every five days in Spring Training, which he will, that he will end up being one of our five best pitchers and in our rotation come the end of spring,” Dombrowski said. “I’m not ready to make that proclamation, but it tells you how highly regarded he is. And he not only has good stuff, he’s mature beyond his years. He’s a very intelligent individual, hard working. He’s a guy on the mound at a young age that knows how to think through situations and just does not throw harder, which is something that’s very difficult to teach. He’s a quality talent and I’ll be interested to see how he progresses this spring myself.”

I feel like we’ll see Porcello a few times during the course of the 2009 season — and I can’t wait. But I also feel like it’s too early in his development for him to come north the whole year. He’s not going to make or break the season for the Tigers, so I’d rather he continue to work on any issues he may have. He can come north in 2010 as an even better pitcher.

Perry obviously didn’t have much chance to pitch in pro ball after the draft.  He struck out 12 and walked 7 in 11-2/3 innings of work in High-A Lakeland. Reports have him expected to open the year in Erie as their closer, which sounds about the right spot for him. While he was a pretty good college closer with a power arm, I would just like to see him put a few more professional innings on his warm before we form an opinion. Of course, seeing him this spring will help some. But even then, it’s still exhibition. If there are any stumbles in the Tigers’ bullpen in 2009 — and let’s face it, there’re going to be stumbles in the Tigers’ bullpen — I expect he’ll be wearing the olde-English D by the end of the year. As we know he’ll be a reliever for his major league career, and he’s already got his pitches, I think it woudln’t hurt to bring him up as soon as he can contribute.

Related posts

• February 9, 2009 -- Bunt Singles: Feb. 9
• June 5, 2008 -- Tigers draft pitchers — lots and lots of pitchers
• March 5, 2008 -- Tigers split squads sweep Pennsylvania
• March 2, 2008 -- Tigers weekend wrap
• December 15, 2007 -- Bunt Singles: Dec 15

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Last year, everything was gravy. The lineup was set. The rotation was set. The team was set to blast off to that World Series victory St. Louis so evil-y denied two seasons prior. The only real question was whether or not Brandon Inge would remain a Tiger, he of the trade demands and refusal give up his starting spot defensively at the third bag.

We know how that turned out.

So this season, there’s a lot more to talk about. Hopefully that bodes well. Here’s five issues to watch in camp and in the early months of the season:

1) The rotation

We know Justin Verlander is a starter. We’re pretty sure Jeremy Bonderman will come back healthy and reclaim his spot.  A relatively confident guess puts Edwin Jackson in the rotation after the Tigers traded Matt Joyce for him this offseason. And you’d be a fool not to assume Armando Galarraga’s spot there is safe.

The issues?  Verlander struggled last year. Bonderman is coming off some pretty tough surgeries. Galarraga never really overwhelmed last year, he just got the job done. It seems reasonable to expect a step back there. Jackson has always had a lot of potential but few see him as anything beyond a No. 4 guy. And, oh yeah, all four of those guys are right handed. You’d kind of like some mixture in your rotation, and you know for sure Leyland would like some mixture in HIS rotation and his opinion counts for a thing or two.

So then you’ve got Nate Roberton (disappointing in 2008) vs. Dontrelle Willis (HUGELY disappointing in 2008) gunning for final spot in the rotation. What if neither guy claims the spot? And about if Zach Miner — righty — pitches best these next few weeks? Issues.

2. The bullpen

Despite what the Tigers say, does anyone believe Brandon Lyon won’t be the closer at the start of the year? Didn’t think so. Beyond that, the bullpen hasn’t been very pretty these past two seasons. Here, we’ve got Joel Zumaya claiming he can come in pitching like Joel Zumaya circa 2006, not Joel Zumaya circa the rest of his career. So we’ll see. We’ve got Mr. Inconsistent in Fernando Rodney. And as for the rest, outside of Bobby Seay as the situational lefty (and sometimes beyond), I don’t think the Tigers really have a great grasp on how the bullpen is going to shake out. I’m sure they’ve got some things penciled in. But things change.

3. The lineup

Let’s start with the black hole:  Any combination involving Brandon Inge and newcomers Adam Everett and Gerald Laird. They’ll back 7-8-9, in some order.

So what about the top six guys? In the past, Leyland has said he’d like to move Curtis Granderson down in the lineup. But there is no lead-off batter in Detroit but Granderson. So then there are four right handers and a switch hitter to make up batters 2-6. One of those guys — Gary Sheffield — sucked last year but claims he is in the best shape of his life, or some such thing. Does Leyland slot him back at No. 3 or drop him down until he sees if he can play? Where do you put Guillen, your switch hitter? Does Cabrera remain your traditional cleanup — No 4 — after moving up from No. 5?

4.) Carlos Guillen in left field.

Need I say more? Just the thought scares the crap out of me. He’s aging. His knees hurt. So now you’re going to put him in the outfield and command him to run around? I know the Tigers have no choice, a few mistakes in roster makeup built up over the past few seasons, and the inability to find a trading  partner to take one of the DHs off the Tigers’ hands are biting them in the butt. But…. yikes!

5) Chemistry

Winning makes good chemistry. I firmly believe that. But like last year when you had a fairly large number of new guys trying to get used to each other, the Tigers have to build up some fast chemistry on the infield.

Fortunately, there’s less to get used to this season than last. When he opened 2008, Placido Polanco looked around and saw three infielders he wasn’t used to seeing. This year, Inge returns to third base, and Miguel Cabrera is comfortable at first. The only thing is acclimating to Adam Everett at shortstop.

Gerald Laird starting at catcher — and to a lesser extent, Matt Treanor backing up at catcher — is the other issue that interests me. I believe we give catchers a bit too much credit sometimes for “calling games.” But there’s something to be said for familiarity with the pitcher. And now, the backstops have almost no familiarity with the folks standing on the mound. (Treanor is said to be Willis’ catcher, which may explain why he’s in Detroit now). So that is maybe a bit worrisome, though not yet hugely so.

BONUS ISSUE) The World Baseball Classic

I add this, because, as Spring Training gets into the thick of the games in March, the Tigers will be one of several teams losing a bunch of players to this international shindig. With so many unanswered questions remaining, this could be an issue.

OR

If you remember, the last WBC was held in 2006, and that year turned out pretty good for the Hometown Nine. As Leyland said at the time, you’d rather have guys who are good enough to play in the WBC, rather than a bunch of guys who aren’t, even if you lose them for a few weeks…

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1)  I thought the Tigers should, if anything, be sellers if there were takers. Not so much because I view their window as closed. Actually, because I view the window as open, but the makeup of the team not … quite … right. So view it as more of a tactical retreat. Now it’s a lot easier to say “trade XXXX” than it is to actual find a trading partner and get the proper value in return. I understand that. On top of that, if you trade that established player, maybe you piss off some of your fan base who don’t see things a year or two down the road. In this era of needing to get the most fans in attendance, you definitely don’t want to do that. So I’m not all that upset that the Tigers couldn’t exchange an older, established player for something younger that might fit in better. But it might have been nice if something did work out.

2) The pitching problems of 2008 were intriguing. You look at a lot of the guys who struggled and thought they should have been better. So, I probably wasn’t as high on making any splashes in the offseason pitching market. I’m actually quite pleased about the Tigers not freaking out and throwing money at the problem. Actually, in my mind, the problem stems more from the standpoitn of management (GM/manager/coaches) not putting the players in the right position to succeed. I hope they have looked at what went wrong and have a better idea about who to slot in where. I also suspect some pitchers will bounce back from poor seasons caused by injury or just otherwise bad years. But bringing in Edwin Jackson to see how he does for a relatively low price was intriguing. I felt like spending big money on a closer was a bad idea. Closers are “sexy” roles in baseball but other than the very few elite ones, and I didn’t view anyone on the free agency list as one of those other than maybe Frankie Rodriguez, you should probably not be paying big money for the position. So signing Brandon Lyon was the right move.

3) So basically, what I’m saying is, a quiet offseason was fine by me. A bit boring, but lord knows, we watched the Tigers try making a few thunderous moves in the past. What did w get? A few too many years of Gary Sheffield. A waste of young pitching to bring in Edgar Renteria.

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And other interesting news: I am in the midst of a career change. Or something. I have left The Mining Journal. Besides getting back to blogging about Tigers baseball here — oh so much to say, too! — I’m also going to write about all the other topics that interest me at kurtmensching.com. I hope you’ll find space on your RSS feeds for both sites, and I’ll work to earn back the readership I gave away when I burned out on writing and lost the ability to blog regularly.

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First the positive — If you’re gonna grab a coach out of another organization for a job promotion, you could do a lot worse than plucking a Minnesota Twin. A franchise that knows how to win consistently on a shoe string does so because it has a solid staff top to bottom. It’s not just the GM or the manager. It’s a strong system of scouts and coaches they have in Minnesota, and they never lack for strong pitching. So, while I know little about Knapp other than the fact he was a minor league pitching coordinator for the Twins, I am going into this move having confidence in his ability to step into Detroit and help make an improvement. Maybe his set of eyes can help the Tigers find some underpriced relief pitching, whether they sign a minor league deal with a guy or find someone with major league experience. I think he’s a good hire.

But could they have done better?

That’s the negative — Leo Mazzone is unemployed and you don’t go for him? Mazzone is best known for being the pitching coach of the Atlanta Braves during the glory years, and though good talent can make a coach look better, the talented hurlers for the Braves gave Mazzone a lot of credit. When he went to Baltimore, I think we saw what happens when there’s just not as much natural talent. But take nothing away from Mazzone, he’s a heck of a coach. The Freep reports he was even interested in the job.

So, I’m excited going forward. You don’t always need to make the biggest name hire. It’s about finding talented people who fit the organization. I’ll just trust that’s what Dave Dombrowski did. But I continue to find it curious that Mazzone did not rate even an interview.

Additional reading: (hat tip Ian)

• Lip Service
• Baseball America

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Why? In short, his arm is gonna fall off! Well, maybe not quite that bad. But he saw a substantial jump in innings over the past few years. In 2006, he tossed 192. In 2007, he threw 256 when you include the Indians’ long playoff run. In 2008, he threw 256-2/3 when you include the Brewers’ playoff run. Ten of his games were complete games. Both years he led baseball in innings pitched. So that’s nearly 513 innings in two years. I don’t doubt that Sabathia can take a higher pitching load than the average guy. And I know there are pitchers out there — very rare, but they exist — who can pitch a load like that without showing some dropoff.

And then there’s the whole American League/National League thing. The A.L. might be the junior circuit, but it’s senior when it comes to talent. Any AL fans looking at Sabathia’s final three months and projecting it back to their teams are making a mistake. Sabathia’s ERA in Cleveland was 3.80 this year. One can only surmise he’s going to pay the piper in some form for all the inning he has thrown. I don’t know if he could be looking at Justin Verlander’s 2008 numbers (PUKE) but he will regress, I am sure.

Add to that he’s looking for a nine-figure contract, that likely pays him $20M pers season for five to seven years, and you see the risk that the “winner” of the Sabathia sweepstakes it taking on.

The Tigers don’t need to add that kind of risk. They’ve got enough risks. And like I said, I don’t think the Tigers would even enter the running, so this post is all academic. The Yankees are said to be looking to make a big push for Sabathia. I say, let them have him.

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WHAT?!

Guillen. The guy who couldn’t play shortstop, so they moved him to first. He butchered any semblance of fielding at first base, and fortunately for Guillen, Miguel Cabrera did likewise at third base, so the switcheroo made sense. And now Guillen is playing in left.

It’s not totally unheard of. Teams aren’t putting their best athletes in left field (see: Barry Bonds, Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, Manny Ramirez, et. al.) But can a guy with a couple of bum wheels and an arm that can’t always direct the baseball to the center of a teammate’s mitt be expected to last the whole season out there? I just don’t think so.

The reasoning is pretty simple, I’m guessing, from the Tigers’ point of view.

Guillen has to play baseball. He’s paid a lot to do that. Brandon Inge is a better third baseman and can’t play catcher worth phooey. Some player-to-be-acquired is a better shortstop than Edgar Renteria. And the home-run hitting Cabbage has put down his claim to first base for the next seven or so years. Oh, and there’s three designated hitters on the team but only one DH slot in the American League.  Unless the Tigers find a way to move Gary Sheffield to another team (or unless Sheffield comes back with a shoulder healthy enough to play left field, which to me remains the better solution), Guillen’s gotta play somewhere. Left field appears to be the position of least resistance.

That is, if his body survives the wear and tear. I seriously wonder if this aging, injured club isn’t just setting itself up to lose a left fielder to the disabled list.

So you can put me down in the category of “don’t like it, but don’t see a real great alternative as this team is currently composed.” Hopefully some things change this offseason.

Related posts

• July 6, 2008 -- Guillen Tigers lone all-star
• June 1, 2008 -- Guillen to LF: weird!
• April 22, 2008 -- Defensive shakeup!!

Second off, anyone who visits the site to read it will notice a substantial cleanup of the sidebars. I’m not going ad-free. I’m happy to accept text ads. But you’ll notice I thought I’d simplify things. No more visual stuff. Just text. Simple, like a blog should be. I feel like things got a bit off track and I wasn’t seeing a lot of benefit for uglying up the site.

And finally, I guess anyone who visited the site will notice a substantial dropoff in blogging. It wasn’t that I only blog the good times. Lord knows, it’s easier to blog the bad times than the good. There’s just so much more content when you’re criticizing and looking for solutions than when everything is peachy. But it just started feeling like a chore I had to get done. With real-life work to do — the start of fall sports season is a busy time for a college/preps sports writer — and a few other things, I just didn’t find myself thinking a lot about Tigers baseball or having much to say. I know I wasn’t going to give it up totally, but for the time being, i had to take a break and recharge. I don’t know that I’m fully ready to jump in with both feet, but I think I can dedicate a bit more time to blogging so I’m going to try to do that and get back into the routine.

A message for my fellow bloggers out there: Don’t lose the routine! It is so hard to get it back!

Fortunately, there’s plenty of issues to blog about. The team was unnaturally awful. But was 2008 a fluke, or do the high number of injuries in 2007-08 point out to us a not-so-hidden flaw in the makeup of the team? How much blame should GM Dave Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland take? How do they get the Tigers back on track? Who’s going to catch? Who’s gonna play shortstop? Why in the world is Carlos Guillen playing in left field and how long could that experiment possibly last? Who’s going to be in the rotation next year? Is anyone from that bullpen worth bringing back? And if so, in what roles?

I’ll try to answer a quetion every two or three days and keep up with any breaking news in the middle.

Let’s give this blogging thing a try again!

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A few issues to comment on:

• Kenny Rogers’ struggles

It’s sad to see he’s lost it. And it’s obvious, he has lost it. He knows it. You know when a player is that age, and has had that long a career, it can just escape just like that. Kind of like Todd Jones. Of course, Jones had an injury. (Does Kenny?) But same concept. Both aging pitchers fell off the table.

Unfortunately, fan perception was not totally balanced there. I am as guilty as the next guy, admittedly, for not giving Jones the credit he deserved. But I was happy to see Rogers given proper thanks for all he did for Detroit — and let’s face it, the man was incredible in 2006, both as a mentor and pitcher, and after his performance in the playoffs I will forever think of him as a Tiger even if most remember him as a Ranger. I don’t know if that will turn out to be his last start in Detroit. Maybe not. But in case it was, I’m just so thankful we had his pouncing kitten defense antics to watch for three years.

I imagine he’d want to be closer to his family if he retired from pitching, maybe step away from baseball for a bit. I don’t know. But I hope there’s always a position with the organization in the coaching ranks if he ever wanted one.

• Todd Jones

Bonus comment: I hope Todd Jones can get a chance to step out of the dugout to a standing ovation before the season ends. Put in a pass-or-fail position where his failures were scorned and his passings were forgotten, Jones was probably the most underrated Tiger this decade.

• Miguel Cabrera

Awesome. Totally awesome. I know. That is neither a particularly analytical comment nor a surprise to anyone who has watched the Tigers the past two-three months. But holy crap. He has been… awesome. Think if he did it for a whole year. Or heck, 80% of the year. He’s going to bring home AL MVP honors while wearing the Olde English D. That trade was 100% a winner.

• Off topic, but I’m rooting for the Brewers

Funny how Brewers fans came out of the closet … kinda like Tigers hats suddenly reappeared on heads in 2004 and jerseys were in droves in 2006. But I know too many to see their baseball hopes crushed by a September swoon. So think positive thoughts for Beertown, hey!

• Vance Wilson indebted to the Tigers

Kind of like with Troy Percival a few years back, acting as a scout when he could not pitch. It’s nice to see the Tigers continue to be a classy organization, and to hear players like Wilson feel loyal to the club because of it.

• This shocks me

600 fans saw the Marlins play? HUH! Can’t they move to Grand Rapids or something? I don’t care if it’s Grand Rapids, Minn. How the heck does a major league club only get 600 in attendance?

• The callups and whatnot

I haven’t actually been able to watch a complete Tigers game yet since they occured. So I have no real opinions. I’m glad Clay Rapada is back. I thought he should have been around for a lot more of the season. He deserves a real look for next year. I think it’s nice to see Mike Hessmen is up and getting regular playing time. I have a hunch he’s just a AAAA player, but hey, he’s living the dream, cheer him on. I’m curious to see how Dusty Ryan will do, because I guess Dane Sardinha just isn’t the answer as a backup catcher.

• Brandon Inge as catcher

I was talking to Ian, the voice behind Bless You Boys, on IM during the game yesterday. We were discussing how we thought Inge’s defense at catcher wasn’t the greatest and wondering if he’d improve during the offseason, knowing he is in all likelyhood “the man” for next season. And then he pulls off just a great double play, his second of the game. So you know what? I think he’ll be just find. I feel a bit uneasy, maybe, but he’s going to be just fine. I just hope he finds his bat. A full year behind the plate just has “mendoza line” written all over it. No wonder he prefers third base. . .

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How many games are left this season?

Ay yi yi.

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• Francis Beltran was designated after Monday’s game so Chris Lambert could come up to the majors for his first major league start Tuesday.

Lambert is interesting only because he came to the organization in the Mike Maroth deal.  A former first-round pick, Lambert has been doing awesome in AAA. I don’t know if he has the stuff to back up the numbers, but it should be interesting to see if he can become another strange success story like Armando Galarraga and Zach Miner.

Beltran was, you know, whatever. No real loss there.

• Dontrelle Willis was hurt in today’s start in Toledo. He left with forearm tightness after one inning.

This is just a lost season for D-Train. Fluke injuries like his knee being hyperextended his second start. Strange stuff like totally losing his control. Now forearm tightness. I’m going to agree with Ian of Bless You Boys, who said somewhere in his game thread today that it’s probably just best to shut Dontrelle down and get ready for next year. Everything seems to be going wrong with this Tigers organization for a second straight year. Nothing to be gained in pitching through any pain.

• Carlos Guillen has back spasms flaring up again and left Monday’s game early.

Actually he apparently left a tilt. Didn’t that phrase go out with Hometown 9? Cagers? Gridders? Spikers? Oh, whoops. I’m off topic. Anyway. Guillen’s health wasn’t known by Jim Leyland in his postgame interview and I can’t find any updates. Leyland didn’t seem to think it would require the disabled list. At this point it honestly doesn’t matter one iota. I knw you can’t shut him down. He woudln’t like it much. But as long as we acknowledge the Tigers aren’t going to do anything worth noting this season and treat the health of the players with the most importance, that’s kinda what I’m harping on.

• Holy crap, the Indians are going the Tigers in the standings.

It doesn’t really matter. But you know, uhm, Detroit better win these next two games. If you’re gonna tank, just do it a bit less than Cleveland is all I’m asking.

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Robertson was obviously at one time a pretty good starter. I nicknamed him Tough Luck Nate because for the 2006 season and a chunk of 2007, he seemed to frequently find himself on the wrong end of 2-0 or 2-1 games. Ah, to have that Nate back. But lately, even his quality starts tended to end up badly. He’d allow two or three runs through six innings only to give up another two in the seventh. And most recently, he’d give up those two or three runs in the fourth, third, second, even first innings. In his most recent start, he allowed FIVE home runs. FIVE! That’s like, insane.

Nate calls this the lowest point in his career. And I’m sure it really is. But I really think no names should be taken out of the running when considering a closer for next year. Maybe a bulldog and battler like Robertson would be great in the ninth inning. Obviously the home runs are a concern. And if he doesn’t get his slider back, which is said is the missing pitch this season,  I don’t even want to consider him in the ninth inning. But a healthy Robertson with all his pitches could be a late inning boon. It could help revitalize his career and the Tigers’ bullpen.

I’m not saying it will, but I’m saying it’s worth considering the possibility.

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• February 15, 2009 -- Could the Tigers make a trade?
• August 19, 2008 -- Daily Fungo Mike’s Questions: Part 1
• April 27, 2008 -- Games 24-25: Splitting with the Angels
• February 12, 2008 -- Holy Toledo: JB
• January 16, 2008 -- Robertson signed through 2010

I think if the right deal came up, they might deal Maggs. But I find it extremely unlikely, because the front office and team owner are likely aware and sensitive to public perception of the team. And the Tigers can’t afford to look like they’re punting the 2009 season, even if it makes them better in the long run. So unless a real exciting, major-league ready prospect comes back in return (which I doubt) Maggs is probably a Tiger in 2009 and beyond.

• How does Jeremy Bonderman recover?

Just based on the comparisons to Kenny Rogers, and recent news that Bonderman is coming along well, I think we can expect to see JB back in the Tigers rotation next April. And based on how Rogers recovered from a similar procedure, at an older age, I think Bonderman should be able to get back to some form of pre-injury ability. As much as we like to joke about the changeup, Bonderman was pretty effective without it. The Tigers may watn to give up on it and just let Bonderman be Bonderman. Maybe he’ll never be a true staff ace, but he did pretty good.

• Is Clete Thomas on the big club to stay?

Clete Thomas just strikes me as a tweener. Or a AAAA guy as some would say. He’s good enough to contribute at the major league level, but not good enough to hold his own year-in and year-out. He’s a decent role player with his play in the field, at least.

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