28th October 2006

The World Series wrap: The foundation is in place

We wanted to win it all this season, just a year removed from wishing to see an 82nd win once again in our lifetimes. The tools were there, but on the biggest stage in baseball, the inexperience seemed to poke through. That team celebrating across the field knew a thing or two about October baseball. They played in a World Series — got swept — just two years ago. A painful experience for them, I’m sure. But this past week, the Cardinals looked like they belonged. The Tigers looked in awe. The next time Detroit plays in the World Series the role will be reversed.

In Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver wrote the Detroiters weren’t of the right frame of mind.

During the regular season, Detroit Tiger pitchers had a respectable .939 fielding percentage. During the World Series, Detroit Tiger pitchers made five errors in 17 chances. The odds of that happening based on chance alone are 355 to 1 against.


During the regular season, Detroit Tiger leadoff hitters got on base 33 percent of the time. During the World Series, Detroit Tiger leadoff hitters reached base five times in 44 plate appearances. The odds of that happening based on chance alone are 843 to 1 against.


In other words, it wasn’t that the Tigers lost. It was the way in which they lost. If you want to take a conspiratorial bent, you can identify a myriad of factors that prevented the Tigers from playing relaxed, professional baseball. There was the long lay-off prior to Game 1. There was smudgegate during Game 2. There was Chris Carpenter pitching his best game of the season in Game 3. There was the rainout before Game 4. And the Tigers headed into Game 5 coming off a heartbreaking loss, facing another road game in a compromised position that they’d never planned for. The Tigers never had the chance to catch their breath. It might have been bad luck that they faced this sequence of events. But it wasn’t bad luck that they lost this series.

The Detroit Tigers. They just weren’t right.

But we’ve seen them like this before. All along, this Tigers club looked like one with great potential, with physical gifts and all the right pieces of the world championship puzzle. They could beat the teams they were supposed to beat with great consistency. But they seemed to fall short of their potential when faced with the storied, winning franchises. You can’t say it for sure, but it just seemed to be a case of the club still learning how to win, still getting that mental toughness required of teams that can truly call themselves the best. Remember, in March, Jim Leyland asked them to try to develop swagger, and not some fake swagger, either. Yesterday, they were playing in the World Series. That’s coming a long way pretty quickly.

It was a roller coaster. Some really high highs. Some low lows. A lot of smaller ups and downs in the middle. The team grew during all of it. The core group of players is returning, and sounds like GM Dave Dombrowski won’t be resting on his laurels. So the team should only get better. And not one of them will look across the field at a Yankees or White Sox club and try to hide a small whisper of doubt. No, they know they belong now. They’re battle tested. They took out the storied Yankees in October, won the American League in four games, and played in the Fall Classic.

The greatest thing of them all is that the Tigers have given baseball back to fans state- and nationwide. The 2006 season was a dream, full of moments we’ll never forget. For me, I’ll carry the image and sound of the “Let’s go Tigers” chant at Wrigley Field. Somewhere around there, you knew this was going to be a year to remember. It was a case of falling in love with baseball again for so many fans. It’s a year that will be cherished. But it’s also just the start.

What is it they say? “Wait ’til next year!”? Next year on April 2, the Tigers raise the American League pennant above Comerica Park to throngs of cheering Tigers fans and players holding their heads high. There’s no reason to think they won’t be right in the thick of adding another next year, and maybe going a step further.

The World is theirs for the taking.

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28th October 2006

World Series Game 5: The End of a Storybook

Well, Detroit lost this game like it lost the others. Errors, lack of hitting. Whatever. Nothing new. Congrats to St Louis. They played better and more poised. The Tigers played as green as they are.

It was a special season that we will hopefully look back on as being the start of something big and fun that goes for years. But I’ll write more on that later when I have a clear head.

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27th October 2006

World Series Game 4: Day 2

I still don’t know how I feel. Numb? Should it be of any consolation that I keep reading this is a game everything went right for St. Louis and nothing went right for Detroit? That’s almost an excuse. Something you want to hear. Something to make you believe in superstition and curses and baseball gods, which are all nice to talk about, but, yeah, I’m going to say, none … of … them … exist. Because, in the end, a loss is a loss. Maybe it lessens it slightly if you can believe it was, well, in the cards. Or not our year. Or any of that other stuff. But let’s face it, no game-of-inches stuff made Tigers pitchers create four errors in four games. Resigned. That’s how I feel.

Deadspin: It seems silly to say this now, but had the Cardinals not come back and won last night’s Game 4 against Detroit, it’s difficult to imagine them winning this series. Not only would it send the home field back to Detroit, and not only would it put St. Louis in an extremely tough pitching position, but, well … the Cardinals would have lost a game in which they caught every break possible, and then a couple extra impossible ones. … It was a night where the Tigers seemed cursed; as mentioned, we can’t imagine how difficult that must have been to watch.

The part that hurts the worst, of course, is blowing a 3-0 lead that made you believe this series was headed back to Detroit, and even if the series was 3-2 in St. Louis’ favor, it was going to be all right. The Tigers just played so good in October, it was impossible to think they could give up a 3-0 lead when they looked like the team we’ve come to expect.

CNNSI’s John Donovon: OK, so maybe the rain that soaked the turf at the new Busch Stadium in the last couple of days, making the outfield play like the 18th green at the Lost City of Atlantis Country Club, had something to do with it. Still, it took something like that, something from above, something almost otherworldly, for the Detroit Tigers to lose Game 4 of the World Series on Thursday night and for the Cards to climb to the unlikely threshold of a championship. Game 4 was so weird, with so many turns going the Cardinals’ way, it was almost enough to make you believe that St. Louis is somehow predestined to win this thing.

I guess that’s why people talk about small moments from 21 or 38 years back. But, there’s no what-ifs. You can’t do that to yourself. The players shouldn’t do that to themselves. We’re not the lovable losers in Chicago. We’re not the cursed team in Boston. We’re the Tigers, and we’re only going to be better after this painful stretch. Take the good — a flag raising in April — take the bad — that sick feeling in the pit of your stomach today. It’s been ups and downs all season. And, even though I don’t expect this, it’s possible the world could come crashing down on St. Louis’ and Detroit could win three straight games. But for that to happen, the Tigers are going to have to stop beating themselves.

But, who knows. It’s baseball. Don’t even try to figure it out.

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posted in World Series, link roundup | 1 Comment

27th October 2006

World Series Game 4: No mas

St. Louis 5. Detroit 4.

I’d like to say there’s some reason to be optimistic. But really, there’s not. The Cardinals just seem to be playing with much more poise, and the Tigers seem to have all but lost any of that cool poise we saw most of the season. I just don’t see them coming back to win the World Series from a 3-1 deficit and no poise.

When we talk about stats, and we pretend there’s no such thing as clutch because it varies from year to year, it sounds good. It sounds logical. It sounds right. But it also sounds like playing the game inside a microchip. The guys playing the game for real in the Detroit uniform are falling short of what we’ve come to expect of them, and they’re doing it in ways we never could have imagined. Mental mistakes. Physical mistakes. Sure, some of it was forced by St. Louis, some was forced by the playing conditions (which were the same for both teams), and some was just random luck of the baseball going to an inch too far or not far enough. But maybe it’s also a sign of being a young team on a very big stage no one expected them to reach.

I don’t know. Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I am. I just don’t see any reason to believe this is going to be a repeat of 1968 with three straight victories. Sure, anything is possible. But probable? No.

Maybe I’ll have something more to say tomorrow. Tonight, I have nothing else to add.

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posted in St. Louis Cardinals, World Series | 7 Comments

25th October 2006

World Series Game 3: For the Birds

Okay, let’s just start with the hat-tipping, because frankly, I think it’s due in this case. Chris Carpenter was simply amazing. He led the Cards to a 5-0 victory for a 2-1 series lead. The Tigers didn’t get very deep in the counts, but he didn’t really give them any chance to work a count even WHEN they tried. (Which wasn’t always, let’s be fair here).

Carpenter aside, St. Louis pitchers couldn’t hold the Tigers to the paltry number they have without some help. The batters just haven’t been patient. They’re not known for being patient, but they’ve been even worse than normal, as Bilfer points out. Today, the first six batters reached base approximately zero times, give or take zero. Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco and Pudge Rodriguez are 0-for-the-World-Series. I just don’t mean hitless. They haven’t touched first base safely. Granderson and Pudge have both grounded into a double play, too. Magglio Ordonez at least has a number on the board: .200. Basically, if you’re looking for any good news at all, if you looked at those numbers and knew the Tigers played three games, you’d assume they were down, 0-3. But it’s only 1-2. Not the ideal position, But certainly not the end of the world.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the batters have to break out of the slump. There’s no guarantees of that. You hope the batters get back into it, but just because they haven’t been hitting doesn’t mean they have to start hitting. If pressed, I’d say this is probably the low point for the team. It certainly feels like a low point. But can we say for sure it will be a low point and not a low plateau? Certainly not. It’s pretty awful. It’s got Jim Leyland talking about lineup changes.

The defense has been awful, too. Okay, that’s probably an overstatement. The defense by pitchers not named Kenny Rogers has been awful. Today, it didn’t seem like the team defense was all that bad. Certainly, it didn’t feel like typical Tigers defense, but you can’t really point and say it stunk. Joel Zumaya’s errant throw when attempting to get the lead runner at third? That was awful. Certainly, St. Louis has played better. There were a few times the Tigers got nice contact, but the Cards’ stepped up and made the plays. They are continuing that run of extremely good defense — way over their regular season heads. But again, there’s no rule that says that has to end. Maybe it ends. Maybe it doesn’t.

Finally, I’ll say Tigers pitching has been decent. Not perfect. But I thought Nate Robertson did a nice job and came pretty close to getting out of the game unscathed after loading the bases with no outs. He allowed two runs in five innings. Zumaya caused his own two unearned runs. He did seem to be rusty. Fernando Rodney just seemed to be Fernando Rodney. Usually good, but not always.

The problem isn’t that they lost. With Carpenter on the mound, it’s going to be a tough game to win. But like Saturday, the depressing factor was how they lost. After falling behind in a close game, the Tigers just seem to have a mental lapse here, a physical lapse there, and suddenly, there’s no way they can get back in the game.

But I’m not throwing in the towel. At this point, it could be a 3-0 Cardinals lead. St. Louis has been the better team in the Series. Detroit has had underperforming defense, awful offense, and pitching that could be better. But the Tigrer are only down 2-1 in the Series? That doesn’t sound like it’s time to worry yet. It sounds like if they play Tigers baseball, they claw right back into things. And if they don’t, we’ll just be stuck congratulating St. Louis on a job well done before the weekend.

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posted in St. Louis Cardinals, World Series | 3 Comments

24th October 2006

Hey Tigers fans? Wanna chat the World Series?

Mike over at The Daily Fungo has set up a chat feature on his blog. I hung out during the second game of the World Series and they’re a fun bunch. Check it out! I’ll be at work, but I’ll try to drop in at some point during the night. Go get em, Tigers!

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24th October 2006

World Series: No DH? No problem!

Traditionally, the National League is seen as gaining a bit of an advantage when it hosts World Series games (and in interleague) because the American League loses its designated hitter. On many, or most, AL teams, that’s one of the top run producers, someone in the meat of the lineup. After all, you don’t DH a guy who can’t hit if you’ve got other options. So AL managers are left with the decision, ‘Do I play my DH in the field so I keep his bat in the lineup, or do I give up my hitter for defense?’ Well, they usually play first base anyway, so it’s not a big deal, it’s not a real important defensive position. But, it still leaves the AL team a bit weaker than normal. Another problem, with all the switches for the bullpen, the NL uses pitchers a bit more. So NL-rules teams need good bullpens.

The other point of interest is some AL managers might not be as strategically prepared as their NL counterparts for the intricacies of the double-switch and losing your starting pitcher after five innings because you need a hit with two runners on and your pitcher up to bat.

But those things don’t seem to be the case with the Tigers in this particular World Series. For one, Jim Leyland loves that NL junk. He made his name as an NL manager, and won the World Series as an NL manager. He may have forgot a thing or two — doubt it! — but NL rules aren’t going to be a problem.

And for two, I think the Tigers actually gain an advantage over the Cardinals by moving to an NL park, especially right now. Detroit does not have a traditional DH. There’s no big bat who can’t field stashed away at DH. In fact, it was DH-by-committee in Tigertown this year. In the playoffs alone, four batters have started as DH for the Tigers: Marcus Thames, Alexis Gomez, Omar Infante and Sean Casey. During the regular season, Matt Staris, Craig Monroe and Dmitri Young also recieved more than 10 starts as DH. The season OPS for the ‘position’ was just .768. So the Tigers aren’t exactly losing there. The best-producing DH? Monroe. And he’s the every day left fielder. He played DH while recovering from an injury in June.

Leyland had been using the DH rule during the World Series to rest first baseman Casey, while playing a weak-hitting shortstop. Basically, it left a hole in the lineup for the Tigers, while the Cardinals could take advantage of the DH to add an extra batter. So, actually, the Tigers are gaining by losing the DH. Casey moves from DH to first base. Carlos Guillen moves from first base the short stop. (And don’t kid yourself, he can play the position just fine, that splendid Tigers defensive efficiency comes with him the everyday shortstop). And Ramon Santiago, who’d been batting at No. 9, returns to the bench. It was almost as if Detroit was batting with a pitcher in their lineup having Santiago out there. He was 1-for-12 in the postseason and had an OBP of .244 in the regular season. So, no loss there.

Now it’s even. Detroit has a pitcher at the No. 9-hole. St. Louis has a pitcher at the No. 9 hole. Fair enough. Theirs can bat a bit better probably, but it’s not real significant.

One point I will concede is that the Tigers haven’t had a lot of luck with pinch hitters. Even though Alexis Gomez was the star of an ALCS game and Marcus Thames has 26 homers, don’t look for any advantage there. And those are about only guys you want pinch hitting.

And what about the NL being a league that requires a good bullpen to deal with all the pitching changes? That’s also not a problem. Detroit had a 3.54 bullpen ERA during the regular season. St. Louis has half a run worse (4.06). St. Louis did show an improvement in the playoffs (2.95, 9.5 k/9). But so did Detroit (1.95 ERA) — and the Tigers did that against the Yankees’ lineup and with top reliever Joel Zumaya sidelined for the ALCS. So, it seems to me, conservatively, St. Louis has no bullpen advantage. In all likelyhood, Detroit’s advantage is pretty good.

So, from what I can tell, moving to an NL park with NL rules for three days? It probably works in Detroit’s favor.

No DH? No problem!

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posted in Analysis, Random, World Series | 3 Comments

23rd October 2006

The Rogers saga continues

I thought about posting more on The Kenny Rogers Mystery. Apparently so did everyone else. (Quick hat-tip to Bilfer’s headline!) I thought about doing a roundup type thing. But the gist of it is, The Cutoff Man did a great job on that. (I’m sure some Cardinals blogs did a nice job too, feel free to leave a link in the comments).

There’s a lot of sanctimonious garbage out there. (By the way, this Deadspin link sums it up. Baseball is in dire danger of losing its soul every controversy, while nothing sticks to football). There’s a very intriguing article about Rogers’ use of a different hat. (I’m interested to know if he did this in Texas, as well. Uni watch only did half its job). And there’s a column by former ESPN.com-er Dan Shanoff speculating this is nothing but a made-for-tv hoo-ha. (hat-tip Big Al on the Shanoff column).

Tony La Russa opined.

He said he brought the smudge to the umpires’ attention, but did not demand they search Rogers. They didn’t. La Russa also said the Cardinals were aware Rogers had a similar spot earlier in the postseason.


“I said, ‘I don’t like this stuff, let’s get it fixed.’ If it gets fixed let’s play the game. It got fixed, in my opinion,” he said.


“If he didn’t get rid of it, I would have challenged it. But I do think it’s a little bit part of the game at times and don’t go crazy,” he said.

The problem is, we don’t have any concrete evidence of a thing. Speculation is lovely and all, but what’s it get you? Nothing. The people on the field did nothing, and they were aware of the situation. They have the most stake in the outcome of the World Series. It’s the “experts” who are driving this thing. Experts are a dime a dozen. Everyone knows one. Everyone is one. And suddenly everyone is an expert at interpreting an image flashed on the screen by Fox. I’m not going to buy into any of it.

UPDATE: An anonymous bullpen coach who spoke to SI’s Jon Heyman thinks Rogers used pine tar, but La Russa’s own pitchers would be mad if this opened up the door to greater scrutiny.

“I bet Tony La Russa’s pitchers are mad at him for saying anything, because a lot of guys do it, and I’d be surprise if there’s a whole staff of guys who don’t do it. In fact, I’d say a majority of guys use one of the three — shaving cream, suntan lotion or pine tar. They can’t like him ratting out the other team when everyone does it. Maybe he had to say something because it’s the World Series, it’s on TV and he probably has to answer to his owner.


“But you’ll notice he didn’t continue to talk about it, and he instructed his guys not to talk about it. They probably have no interest in catching Rogers because if they do then the umpire is looking at everyone.’

It also touches on how the MLB will be tarred and the NFL’s steroids problem will be swept under the rug.

Unless this story develops into one where something ACTUALLY happens, I’m not going to post about it again. La Russa said “don’t go crazy,” that’s good enough for me.

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23rd October 2006

World Series Game 2: Tigers rally behind Rogers

(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Kenny Rogers threw his 23rd straight scoreless inning and a third scoreless game. He was asked about the feat and had one response: He’s no Christy Mathewson (who threw 27). But he is Kenny Rogers, and that’s pretty good in the post season in 2006. So 23, 23, 23 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason for Rogers, and the Tigers are heading to St. Louis with a 1-1 series split after a 3-1 victory.

KEN-NY! KEN-NY! KEN-NY!

The AP article mentioned: “Rogers became only the second pitcher to have three scoreless starts in a single postseason. Christy Mathewson had three complete-game shutouts (27 innings) for the Philadelphia Athletics in the 1905 World Series.”

Dirtgate” is going to be talked about more than anyone will want to hear I’m sure. I look at it this way: Rogers pitched better when his hand was clean than when it was dirty. That really shuts the cover on the book for me. His second through eighth innings were better than the first. The Cardinals were a bit annoyed at the moment, but they let it drop. I hope the media follow suit. Now I see how the White Sox must have felt last October.


These looked a lot more like the Tigers we’re used to. That’s good, and that’s bad. The good was the double plays turned, the fine defensive plays by Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe and Magglio Ordonez in the outfield. The cool defense in the middle infield. We got a homer by Monroe — who is going to be known for being a capable power hitter in the national media after the five home runs October he’s hit so far — timely hitting by Sean Casey, and Carlos Gullen was great. Two interesting notes from the Elias Sports Bureau:

Craig Monroe became the fifth player to hit a home run in each of his first two World Series games. …

The Tigers have hit at least one home run in each of their 10 postseason games this year. Only two other teams did so in their first 10 games in any postseason. The Blue Jays homered in their first 10 games in 1992, and the Astros homered in their first 12 in 2004.

On the flip side, there was that whole thing with loading the bases with no outs and putting a goose-egg on the scoreboard. And, of course, Todd Jones made the ninth interesting WAY, WAY, WAY too interesting, as he is wont to do. He’s done it once each playoff series (and many times during the year) and rebounded to pitch fine. That, too, is Tigers baseball. Just Tigers baseball we havent’ seen in awhile.

So now we move to St. Louis. If they take care of their home field, Comerica Park has seen its last of the Fall Classic. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. We saw the worst of the Tigers Saturday. We just hope to see the best of them in the coming days. I think when Detroit plays its game, it’s good enough to come out of this. Which isn’t to imply anything bad about the Cardinals. They’re a fine team. But I think the Tigers are a better one. I don’t know if Nate Robertson is going to outduel Chris Carpenter Tuesday — but he doesn’t have to. He just has to keep it close, and certainly that he can do that. I am sure Detroit will take one, possibly two, and have a chance to close this out at Comerica Park.

Admit it. Yeah, it would be fun to cruise to a World Series victory in four games. But having some drama, both on-field and off, makes this pretty enjoyable, too.

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posted in St. Louis Cardinals, World Series | 3 Comments

23rd October 2006

Rogers hurls a gem!

Okay, so it’s Sparky, but close!

(Photo by Brian Snyder/Pool/Getty Images)

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