The Freep reports the blockbuster deal is official, and that Tigers are now shopping P Chad Durbin, LF/1B Marcus Thames and 3B Brandon Inge (!!) , both to ease payroll and because they’re starting to run a surplus of players and can’t keep them all.

Although my predictions (and see comments!) lately have been junk, I’ll keep at it!

• Thames doesn’t have much trade value. Yeah, he can hit home runs. But he’s limited in the field and isn’t all that unique of a player. Salary is fine at least. Someone might take him. Not much value in return.
• Durbin apparently isn’t being thought of as a viable relief solution. He can start. He’s not owed that much money. A cheap franchise somewhere should want him. I wouldn’t expect a lot of value in return.
• Inge is interesting to consider. He’s a stellar third baseman and some team may see him as an emergency catcher. He had bad season at the plate (80 OPS+) last year, but I believe he’ll bounce back. He really is closer to average (seasons of 109, 100 and 98 before that). So a team is getting a good fielder, average hitter with some power. Problem is, he’s owed like $18M for 3 seasons. That’s probably a pretty fair salary so long as he bounces back, but we do have to consider his season makes this a “sell low” year rather than “sell high.” Whoever misses out on Scott Rolen may want to look into this. We’ve as fans come to realize we overvalue our own players more often than not and are sometimes shocked at how little we get in return. Teams probably figure this is a dump of salary for a player squeezed out of a starting spot. I wouldn’t expect much though, I’ll hope for a reliever!

More on Inge though, I don’t know if the Tigers need to trade him. It depends on what they think of the payroll I guess. Most figure Miguel Cabrera will continue starting at third, which makes Inge a supersub or traded. That’s a step down in defense. Maybe some days against lefties though, it wouldn’t be bad to have Inge around to start at third and have Cabrera in left. Remember, the World Series winners aren’t always best in March, they’re the deeper teams that survive injuries. Inge is good insurance at multiple positions if they don’t mind paying the premium.

Finally, something I haven’t mentioned, so I’ll toss in here, the 40 man roster obviously isn’t a big deal. The Tigers added two to it, but four of the six traded players came off it.

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Ian has been all over this today. I have been away from my computer.

Apparently the Tigers are discussing a deal with Florida involving either Dontrelle Willis and possibly Miguel Cabrera. Ken Rosenthal first reported this. But the Tigers beat writers caught on too, so he’s not waving at airplanes here. The asking price is Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and quite likely, more.

The question is, what can Detroit offer that is better than other offers? I’m not sure. I think the Angels can, if they wish, outbid the Tigers here with Howie Kendrick and several other young players. Past the two prospects, I don’t really know that Detroit has much left in the minors to add in. Maybe a major leaguer.

Now my thought, is that Cabrera and Willis are obviously great players. Cabrera, if you can lock him up, can be a real big franchise player. Willis can definitely help the Tigers starting pitching, as he should bounce back from a lackluster 2007. It would undoubtedly make 2008 pretty exciting. I’m not sure if I’d want to do it, though, without one of the two Marlins being signed to a multiyear deal. Cabrera, one of (or the?) game’s best young slugger could take over at third and return Brandon Inge to a superutilityman role.

Update: Far as I can tell, both Cabrera and Willis are free agents after 2009.

The other trade rumor out there is that the Oakland A’s would like both Maybin and Miller for Dan Haren. If they just want Miller, I do it. I’m a Haren fan, though. He’s been awesome in Oakland. But I don’t give up both prospects, and I really would prefer to trade pitcher for pitcher there.

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Oakland 5, Detroit 4 (10 innings)

Tigers starter Virgil Vasquez made it through just four innings, allowing four runs. The bullpen made it through five more, allowing no runs and giving the bats a chance to get back in the game. And that they did, culminating in a game-tying two-out RBI single by Sean Casey in the ninth inning off Oakland closer Huston Street.

Unfortunately, Mike Piazza got a piece of a Joel Zumaya offering in the 10th and sent it down the left-field line. Timo Perez fielded it, hesitated, double clutched, and threw to second, allowing Piazza to slide in safely. Dan Johnson drove him in with a strike into right field.

Problems there: 1) why did Perez take so long to get the ball in? 2) Why didn’t Jim Leyland walk the lefty so set up a chance at a double-play? Two questionable decisions.

With the loss, the Tigers fell 5-1/2 games out of first place when the Indians scored six runs in an inning to beat the White Sox. (Fortunately, I guess) the Yankees and Mariners both lost, keeping Detroit within hunt of the wild card. Strangely, it was only about a week ago I thought the wild card was not a possibility and the team had to win the division, and now it’s the opposite. Make of that what you will.

A blown shot, but this team just keeps blowing chances. The pitching just isn’t good enough, and when it is, the batters fail to do their job. But it’s Sept. 1 and the Tigers still have something to play for, so we, as fans, should be appreciative of that after the past two decades or so.

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We hope it’s a happy trade deadline day, anyway…

It’s a day filled with possibilities. With players changing teams. With holes in team’s fortress walls being fixed for the pennant run.

Or possibly a day not much happens, the national and local media have been reporting for much of the season. So far it’s the Braves with their trade for Mark Texeira who have been most active with their early give giving of Jarod Saltalamacchia to the Rangers.

Jon Paul Morosi keeps talking about shortstop Jack Wilson of the Pirates, who is in the first year of a 3yr/$20M deal. He’d probably be cheap to pay for initially, but is way too much money for a guy who can’t hit a lick. Bloggers have expressed concern. I hope it’s a smoke screen. I just don’t think the media has ever been very good at predicting a Tigers trade ahead of time. So I doubt this happens. I hope. I hope. I hope it doesn’t happen. Getting Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya back in August means the Tigers may do nothing at all, Danny Knobler writes.

The deadline is at 4 p.m. eastern, but I’ll update in the comments if anything happens before I get back from work and have a full wrap-up of my views — trade or no trade — this evening.

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The new rumor: Farnsy

Claiming multiple sources, the New York Post reported today the Tigers have an eye on bringing back KYLE Farnsworth. He was last in Detroit at the trade deadline, 2005, when unable to sign him, GM Dave Dombrowski shipped him to Atlanta for Zach Miner and a mixed martial artist.

Tigers scout Dick Egan was at last night’s Yankees’ 7-1 win over the Royals in which Farnsworth didn’t pitch in. What the Yankees would get back depends on how much money the Tigers want to pay on Farnsworth’s salary.

And Etc.

SI’s Jon Heyman has a roundup of what he’s hearing and thinking.

The Tigers blogosphere says:

As the deadline approaches, watching the range of opinions posted is interesting, sometimes educational. There is no consensus among the bloggers about whether anything should be done, what it should be and who it should be.

Detroit Tigers Weblog:

I fully understand that the team has to “win it all this year” because “you never know when you’ll get another opportunity.” But even taking the best team into the playoffs doesn’t mean that you win it all.

Bless You Boys:

(Posted following the double header loss Tuesday) Anyone who thinks the Tigers don’t need bullpen help just need to take a look at the boxscore of tonight’s game. Virgil Vasquez left with a 7-2 lead in the sixth inning, likely thinking he was going to earn his first major league win. Three innings later, the whole thing exploded like those fireworks the White Sox shoot off after the home team wins.

The Wayne Fontes Experience:

Al thinks the Tigers need to make a move, as he doesn’t want to trust Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney’s comebacks as sure thing, dubbing them Zumdney.

Why a set-up man, and not a closer? Because it’ll be easier to find, and less costly. It’s also due to the fact that Todd Jones’ value is as a closer. I’d have absolutely no trust in him working the higher leverage 6th through 8th innings. His “Pitching to contact” style of relief is not exactly conducive to putting out rallies. The Tigers need a reliever who can strike batters out, rather than depending almost entirely on his defense.

Go Get ‘Em, Tigers

This is a new blog out there I wanted to point to.

The question I’ve heard the most from Tigers fans: Why should we make a trade? While this may be the first thought of a casual fan, I think we can upgrade our team.

Motown Sports

You can find just about every idea, good and bad, there.

My take

I think the Tigers have to make a move, but not a major one. The Jose Capellan and Macay McBride trades have both been beneficial. If Dombrowski can find someone a bit higher profile than that, and (this is a requirement for me) with a good strikeout pitch, I’d feel a lot better off.

As is, this bullpen is curious, at best. There are too many lefties with splits suited for LOOGYs — Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, Macay McBride — and too many guys who can’t throw a strikeout — Jason Grill, Zach Miner, Todd Jones.

And then you have the guys who may help — Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya. I say may because you just don’t know. Who can look into a crystal ball and tell me Zoomer will come back throwing 103 and striking out guys, giving the Tigers their only stopper in the bullpen? Who can guarantee to me when Fernando Rodney comes off the DL, as he will very soon, the extra rest for his shoulder will be enough to get him back to strikeout throwing form? You can’t.

The Tigers have to plan for the worst — neither R nor Z contributes — and hope for the best — an overabundance of good relief arms.

They shouldn’t give up the farm. But they don’t need to.

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Saw this on Ben Maller this morning.

The Denver Post reports the Tigers scouted Rockies in Washington. Of course, the Rockies were playing the Nats, who may have been the real scouting target. So it could be nothing. But

Multiple executives said the Tigers and Rockies have been talking. (Brian) Fuentes, meanwhile, will take a small step toward returning when he plays catch today. The former closer has been sidelined since July 4 with a strained left lat muscle.

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A feature I’ll run until the trade deadline, here’s what we know:

• The Tigers were scouting Houston this past series, Baseball Prospectus reports.
  They were “paying particular attention to Houston’s Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and Brad Lidge and Pittsburgh’s Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, and Shawn Chacon.”
• Jason Beck reports, on the flip side, the Washington Nationals were scouting Erie’s Jair Jurrgens. Beck writes, “The Nats have a pair of relievers on the market who could be of interest to the Tigers depending on the price in closer Chad Cordero and big right-hander Jon Rauch. According to our MLB.com Nats reporter, GM Jim Bowden is again sticking to his prices on his most tradeable commodities.”
• Nothing much else new that I can find. You know all about Eric Gagne and his no-trade listing of the Tigers. You’ve heard about watching Octavio Dotel of the Royals.

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The bullpen is a big problem. That seems to be a popular topic. Todd Jones:

“If we don’t start taking advantage of our opportunities, Dave (Dombrowski) is going to close the door by going with other guys.

“And it’s time for all of us to realize that and understand it and be able to produce. I’m talking about me and everybody.” (Freep)

Whether it’s important contributers getting injured — Joel Zumaya’s finger, Fernando Rodney making a second trip to the DL — important contributers who haven’t duplicated 2006 — Jason Grilli, Wil Ledezma — or a roundup of guys going through the two bullpen positions that remain — Aqualino Lopez, Tim Byrdak, Bobby Seay — the bullpen is shaky at best, awful at worst, during the innings before Jones.

Any visiting Cleveland fans can probably sympathize. It was just a year ago they had solid starting pitching (ERA around 4 if I recall) and similarly strong batting and they were no longer in contention by the time most of us sat down on the beach.

Bullpens are by nature streaky and hard to figure out. But I think we’ve figured out this one is no good and must blown up. Dave Dombrowski must make some big changes, or the Tigers are going to find themselves in an uphill battle the rest of the season. No one should think an ERA above 5 — and the heavy lifters closer to the 6s — is acceptable or an aberration. Many of these guys were slated for Toledo, not a contender. They can’t be expected to pitch for a contender.

Who goes?

Jason Grilli. He just doesn’t have it. Thanks for his service in 2006, but he can’t be carried any more than Chris Shelton could.

Jose Mesa. No brainer.

Wil Ledezma is on the hot seat, but young and has starter potential that makes me not want to just cut strings. I’d rather get something in return.

Bobby Seay or Tim Byrdak. Only one can be a lefty specialist. As is it, there are two specialists and both are used in extended roles that do not benefit them. Both are pretty darn decent, too. I like Byrdak’s strikeout pitch this year, but Seay found good success, too.

By my figuring, that makes 2 or 3 guys who it’s time to ditch. So what are some possibilities?

Promotion from within

The options I’d like to see explored not altogether that different than in the past. For one, you’ve got to get a closer look at Eulogio De La Cruz and his ability to force the ball into the ground. His power pitching comes across as Zumaya-like enough that it brings hope, not desperation. He’s young and he failed as a minor league reliever a few years ago. But now that he’s learned how to pitch, I think the Tigers really have to give a look. Ultimately, he’s going to end up in the pen or starting another team.

Scott Warheit suggests moving Chad Durbin to the bullpen (for his reliability, shockingly) and starting Andrew Miller. On a temporary basis, I’m on board with this. We still have to watch Miller’s innings. Hard to remember, but this is his first year of professional ball. Fortunately, Miller does not need to start all season and give the Tigers 200 innings. He only needs to fill the time until Rogers and Zumaya can step back into their roles. Durbin is an improvement over guys in the bullpen, and Miller is an improvement over Durbin, so I like this.

Free Agents

There’s even some talk of Troy Percival making a comeback. At first I laughed. Now I’m intrigued. Again, that sort of speaks of the desperation of the situation. At least he likes Detroit. I have no idea if he can do the job but Todd Jones said Percy would like to play in Detroit after failing to play for much of his 2 year, $12M contract. He wants to come help. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Let him try.

Trades

And then there’s the trade route. This may have to be explored. And I have no problem trading young starting pitching for effective bullpen pitching. You want your starters around. But when you consider that by 2009, four of the rotation spots will be held by young guys, that leaves a lot of good, young minor league pitchers switching to the bullpen or being traded. Right now, Eric Gagne is a popular name, as the Texas Rangers continue going nowhere. His injury history scares me away from giving much at all. But as a Rangers salary dump, I wouldn’t be against it. Brad Lidge wants to be a closer, but he’s proven to be a great middle reliever in Houston. He may be on the block. That’s the direction I’d prefer to go, unless the price was too high.

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It’s nearing 4:15 p.m. The 4 p.m. regular trade deadline has passed. The Tigers have made no additional deals. Alfonso Soriano is still a Washington National and not a Minnesota Twin, Chicago White, er, Sock, or anything else.
And now we wait to see if this is, in fact, reality or if any deals were finished before 4 but are working their way through the system.

I would think Soriano would have been announced right away, but no news is not necessarily good news.

UPDATE: Soriano is staying put. None of the Tigers rivals made themselves all that much better except, if you want to speculate playoffs, the Yankees. Detroit filled a hole cheaply. It looks like a pretty good day to me. I’ll have more in my Q&A tonight or tomorrow.

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New York, realizing it can’t save runs, decided to try to add runs in the body of Bobby Abreu. They are also picking up Cory Lidle.  And basically giving away nothing but a pair of minor leaguers, although one was their 2005 first-round pick. But that’s how they roll. What the Yankees want, the Yankees get. There’s still some i’s to dot and t’s to cross, but in all likelyhood this is a done deal.

Let’s just see if this one works out for them any better than past additions.

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