(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Tigers, 11-4. A nine run second, home runs by Craig Monroe, Brandon Inge and Matt Stairs, and fine pitching by soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander was all it took. Symbolically (minus the run), 2006 first round draftee Andrew Miller closed out the ninth with a strikeout. Oh, and the Tigers recaptured the best record in baseball with Yankees and Mets losses.
Detroit returns to the post season for the first time in 19 years! I was too young to remember that one, so this is just awesome.

Did anyone else get what must be an old Sesame Street strong in their heads from the Tigers scoring today? But the song ended too soon. Detroit put up 15 runs — 10 in the first inning, as you’ve heard — to blast past Kansas City. Backing into the playoffs? I think not!

This Tigers team is starting to hit the ball well. And yes, it’s the Kansas City Royals. But at least it was off All-Star pitcher Mark Redmen. Okay, that doesn’t sound so impress either. But at least he’s played some nice games along the way to help the Tigers. Watching the highlights on Baseball Tonight, it’s apparent Redmen was not even close to having it today. The Tigers just took advantage. Curtis Granderson had the two toughest parts of the cycle — a triple and home run — out of the way in the first inning. Unfortunately, he could get no closer. But what a great day at the dish for the team. Of course, I’d be remiss for not mentioning Placido Polanco — who has Sunday off — went 3-for-4 at the plate, while Chris Shelton added three hits. It’s nice seeing Placi come back, period. All the better to see him come back swinging better than anyone could have hoped.

Kenny Rogers pitched almost a complete game. I had no problems with it. Some people might have. But if he thought he could do it — and he’s pitched long enough to have a good grasp on what he can and can’t do — it’s fine by me. I don’t think any damage was done by the decision. It preserved the bullpen. I guess you could have given Andrew Miller an extra inning of junk time if you like or something. It’s just a matter of preference, not really anything to be too excited over. Rogers has been awesome ever since Lynn Henning suggested he be pulled from the rotation. Lynn, if you’re reading, please make the suggestion for Jeremy Bonderman if that’s what happens!

Detroit is 8-0 in KC now. Wow.

Alas, Chicago was saved by the rain and turned a 7-2 defeat into a 9-7 victory. That kept Detroit from clinching the playoffs. But that day will come soon, very soon. I can’t wait.

Can you feel it? Well, if you’re like me, you’ve been feeling the playoffs since Monday’s victory over Chicago. Wednesday’s victory made the playoffs feel inevitable. With Chicago’s losses Thursday and Friday, Detroit’s 7-3 victory over Kansas City on Friday night, and suddenly, it’s coming true. The clinch number is 2! It’s not official yet. But it’s 11:59:50 on New Year’s Eve, and the countdown has begun its final stretch.

I just have to accentuate this quote Jason Beck writes at MLB.com.

“I don’t know what other people are thinking,” said Joel Zumaya, whose two scoreless innings helped seal Friday’s win, “but each day, I’m waking [up] and I’m going, ‘Wow, I’m one day closer to clinching the playoffs.’ It’s just crazy.

“I’m 21, and I never thought I would experience something this early. Someday, I always wanted to. I’d sit there in front of the TV and think, ‘Maybe one of these days, I’m there.’ And I’m going to be there pretty soon.”

Not much to say about the victory. Like many of the 12 wins against the Royals, Detroit trailed at some point. And like most of the 12 wins against the Royals, the Tigers put up crooked late-inning numbers to earn the win. A Sean Casey homer put Detroit ahead, 4-3, in the sixth before they really piled on with three runs in the ninth.
Wil Ledezma came an out from a quality start and probably earned his final swing through the rotation with the four hit, four strikeout, one earned run showing.

Oh, and the Twins lost, making the division clinch number fall to seven. Start rooting for those Sox to play the part of spoilers next week in the Metrodome!

Enjoy the countdown. By this time tomorrow, it could be 0! Too bad the games aren’t televised on FSN, but the celebration will be, Danny Knobler reports. Oh, and I almost forgot, there’s reason to celebrate already. Placido Polanco will be starting at second base!

Detroit opened its final 10 games of the season with a loss. Much can be said about the lineup, or lack thereof, but I wasn’t too upset. You can’t put the A team out every game, especially when it’s not really needed. With the hectic schedule — the team arrived at 2:30 a.m. reportedly for a 4 p.m. game — and with having started his best guys (minus Neifi) for the Sox series, Jim Leyland took a bit of a break. It nearly worked out. Unfortunately, Nate Robertson, who chose to travel with the team rather than ahead of them, and Fernando Rodney let in two runs too many and the good guys lost, 4-3.

You knew it was going to be trouble when the Orioles kept loading the bases. They’d have to be successful eventually. And let’s be fair, while Nate didn’t have the best of days, he certainly didn’t have the worst. Rodney is just sorta a wildcard when he comes in. He’s been good more times than not, but today, he just wasn’t. With the lineup and the slipup in pitching (and how many teams would like to allow 4 runs? that’s not a bad showing) Baltimore won on a day the Tigers would have had off if not for rain. So be it. Really, I am just not that offended. We want to win the division, and maybe a day off will help.

Minnesota and Chicago were both shut out, so Detroit didn’t lose its grip on first place for more than a few hours (by a few hundredths of a point) and Chicago only helped the clinch number get to the point we could see a playoff-clinching celebration in Kansas City this weekend.

The lineup? It wasn’t ideal. But I’m glad the team is at the point it doesn’t have to battle with its best nine players out there every…single… night. I’m sure Leyland would tell you he needed to reward some players for their hard work, or had to look at them before deciding on a 25-man roster for the first round, or just wanted to rest guys. Just remember, he didn’t do it because he’s an idiot. He had a reason for it, even if he doesn’t tell us what that reason is. He has been through all this a few times, once rather successfully.
Mostly we, as fans, have not. That’s not to say he’s infallible. He’d admit as such. But he doesn’t do these things just for giggles, either.

[An aside: Omar Infante did not need rest. Why wasn't he playing? I don't blame Neifi personally for any of this, and as Leyland says, there's not really any reason for fans to make him a lightning rod, but there's also no reason to play him.

Another aside: As mad as people get at Jim Leyland, if you read other blogs or forums, you'll find people hate every manager, title contender or cellar dwellars alike. I think it's just part of being a fan. So, continue.]

With the 6-2 victory over Chicago:

Finally, the White Sox and Tigers finish their series for the year. Chicago won it, 12-7. Detroit won four of the last seven games, but also four of the last 10. I dreaded every meeting with the world champions, and rightfully so. The White Sox had our number and we don’t have to see them again until next year. Chicago may miss the playoffs, but they were an incredible, magically team you simply did not want to face. They lost that in the past month. Fortunately, we won’t have to worry about them getting it back.

Finally, Detroit won a series in Chicago, a tough environment with a team fighting for its playoff life.

Finally, we won’t have to hear anymore about the Tigers fighting for their playoff lives. That’s what made this series imporant: the opportunity to pretty much clinch a playoff spot. Two wins took four off the clinch number and virtually assured Chicago’s elimination. We don’t officially have a playoff team yet, of course. Strange things could happen. But in all likelyhood, they won’t. All that panic was for nothing. Breathe a sweet sigh of relief and put your panic button away for the season. We’ll still hear about the Twins beating the door down, but that talk won’t matter nearly as much on the day the Tigers clinch the playoffs. And that day might be coming soon.

Some other finallies:

Finally, the Tigers look like they might be on track.

Finally, Jeremy Bonderman wins again.

Finally, Detroit has won two series in a row.

Finally, Detroit won on a getaway day.

Finally, Ordonez made a nice play in right field.

Finally, the hitters are looking good from top to bottom (more or less). Curtis Granderson is hitting, Ordonez is hitting, Pudge Rodriguez is hitting. Runs have come both manufactured and by the longball. It’s not all candy and roses, but it’s getting to the point where the hitting is good enough to back strong pitching.

(Words I’d like to hear:) Finally, the Twins lost a game again! Sadly, they took another win in Boston and remain a half-game behind.

Finally, well actually, all year really, it’s great to be a Tigers fan and all those years of suffering are paying off. I never knew if they would. But they have.

It would have been nice to see Detroit continue what it started on Monday by beating Chicago a second straight day, looking like a team primed for the playoffs. Didn’t happen. Freddy Garcia 1-hit the Tigers for eight innings, Bobby Jenks (in a 7-0 game!) 1-hit them for three more outs, and Justin Verlander got lit up for homer after homer. The end result: 7-0 Sox. This might have been a nice see-saw between the teams if not for two sweeps of Detroit Chicago owns. As it is, it’s just annoying. I’d really like to see some consistancy out of the Tigers. Good thing we won’t be seeing Chicago in the playoffs. Next year, I hope Detroit can shake this season’s total ownage by the White Sox. I’m really starting to hate them.

Don’t know what to read into it. Probably nothing. So that’s what I’m sticking with. The teams ace off again 8 p.m. on ESPN. Don’t forget, Peter Gammons will be on Baseball Tonight prior to the show. As with most baseball fans out there, I enjoy Peter Gammons. I’m glad he’s come back from his health scare with such vigor and can continue to do what he loves.

Ooooh-Eeeee-Ohhhhh, Magglio Ordonez homered twice against his former team in one of the biggest games of his Tiger career. Once to left field, once to right. And the Tigers walloped Chicago, 8-2, to pull closer to clinching a playoff berth.

Ordonez wouldn’t have had the opportunity to beat his team without such phenomenol pitching from Kenny Rogers, and Rogers wouldn’t have thrown six shutout innings without such great defense behind him in the infield. Neifi Perez played his shift to shallow right field nicely, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge made some key stops for double plays. It was just great baseball to watch. The Tigers played inspired. We needed to see that and, as fans, enjoyed every minute of it, minus possibly the ones there was a Sox runner on third. Of course, that made the douple plays all the better. Rogers, if you wonder, has now given up three earned runs in 33 innings against the Sox.

There were so many exciting places in this game, well, I scared my cat in the first inning alone on Craig Monroe’s home run. Good thing he wasn’t around for the triple play Carlos Guillen hit into. Just to throw my two-cents in, it wouldn’t have happened if the runners weren’t on hit-and-run. But it was such an unlikely event to occur, I don’t realy blame Jim Leyland for it. Some decisions work. Some decisions give the White Sox their lone highlight for the night. Brandon Inge hit a 3-run homer in the ninth, and the Tigers seem to be mashing the ball again. They have 80 runs for the month in 16 games for an average of 5 per game. It’s still not a consistent five, it’s either nice games or low games. But the bats have been coming around a lot more often again, and the homers have frequently flown.

With the win, Detroit’s playoff odds went up greatly, as you’ll see on the sidebar. All the Tigers really had to do in this series was avoid the sweep. They avoided the sweep beautifully and have a chance to win the series and actually add ground on the White Sox. Of course, we wouldn’t be happy with just one win. We want to take the next two as well, and frankly, Chicago doesn’t look like the same team as before. But they bounced back against us in Detroit in August, so I take nothing for granted.  Both teams have 12 games left. Detroit is six games ahead. That’s an awesome feeling after the roller coaster of the past few weeks. In fact, it looks like we all might be White Sox fans when they go into the Metrodome late next week.

Can we say that now? I don’t know if it’s true. My internal debate.

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Me 1: It’s the biggest series left. It sets up how the rest of the season goes. If the Tigers win two, they’re almost guaranteed of making the playoffs.

Me 2: If the Tigers are swept, the hill is a bit tougher to climb, but they can still take care of business and finish things off in the final 10 days. If the Tigers falter in Chicago, they will have several more important series ahead — either must-win situations or chances to clinch. That makes Chicago the toughest series left, not necessarily the biggest.

But don’t you want to win the division? If the Tigers falter against the Sox, they have almost no hope at the Central title. Minnesota is too hot to count out at this point, they’ll keep winning.

The division title would be a feather in the cap. Right now, not choking away the playoffs after going 40 games over .500 is really my main concern.

Detroit needs to go into the enemy’s nest and prove they can win there, to themselves even if they deny it. To their fans, for sure. And to the Yankees, Twins and A’s, all of who hope to see the Tigers in the playoffs at this point.

Playoffs, period. Next year is the year.

And if they don’t win one, making the playoffs becomes that much harder. Next year? How can you say anything about next year? There’s no guarantees. A sophomore slump — and they’re common for pitchers — or injuries would make life difficult next year. Worry about business now, not about business a year from now.

Have we already seen the biggest series of the year?

Which?

How about against Chicago in July? Maybe against Chicago in August — in Detroit. What about going into the Metrodome and winning two games and nearly sweeping them in July? When you look at the big picture, those series, or even the series victory in Boston, may have turned out to be the most important of the year in the big picture. That’s why this whole excercise is silly. Right now, the biggest series is the next series. So the trip to Baltimore-Kansas City will be bigger.

It’s cliche.

It’s a boring quote. And they say it for a reason. It’s true. Biggest series at the moment.

—

I don’t know which of me is right. I want the Central division title. I want to play strong heading into October. But most important, I want there to BE an October. In either case, Detroit controls its destiny, and a good showing over the next three days will go a long way toward both goals. A bad showing won’t kill them, but the games are important and this is a big test to pass. We won’t know how important this series is until the season is finished and we look back.

I’ll agree with Todd Jones. Look at the broad picture constantly. You can notice the details, but don’t get lost in the details and lose the forest for the trees (whoops, another cliche!). Yes, that’s difficult as all get out and we all struggle with it. But it’s true. Is Big Al going to push his Panic Button? No.
Go get ‘em Tigers. Tonight.

You like to think if the Tigers somehow, improbably, scored eight runs, they’d win. Turns out, no. Baltimore took a 12-8 decision in 10 innings.

The four runs allowed in the 10th inning looks a bit bad, but it was mostly gambling on run prevention. Two intentional walks later scored, but the Orioles still had three hits in the 10th inning off Jason Grilli. The bigger problem came that starter Wil Ledezma allowed three home runs, while Fernando Rodney gave up the Tigers’ fourth for the day in the eighth inning.

The Tigers fought back from the 5-1 deficit left by Ledezma and Zach Miner to tie the game at 5-5, and in the eighth inning a 2-run homer by Sean Casey tied the game at 8-8. But they could score no more.

Minnesota beat Cleveland, so Detroit’s lead in the Central is down to 1 game. Chicago is playing in Oakland, I’ll update later tonight. Oakland won, 5-4. Detroit remains 5 games above Chicago with 13 games left in the season.
I’m not sure if I should be disheartened or not. I feel that way. On the other hand, 29 runs in three days shows maybe, just maybe, there’s some pop left in the bats to get us down the stretch.

If you look at standings online or read the Free Press or other newspapers, the Magic Number is 14. The playoff number is 12. But if you look at the RIOT number, calculated by Cal Berkeley, it reads 12 for the division and 10 for playoffs. Why the difference? RIOT takes into account remaining schedule and calculates “at least a tie. But we don’t want a tie, we want a clinch. You could add 1 to each number to get the clinch numbers, but that doesn’t give a complete picture.

Background

Minnesota hosts Chicago for the final three games of the season for each team. Due to this and the close battle among three teams for two playoff spots, things are very interrelated. What improves Minnesota’s chances of winning the division improves Detroit’s chances of winning the wildcard. What improves Detroit’s chances of winning the division actually makes it more difficult for the Tigers to otherwise win the wildcard. So it can get confusing pretty quick.

I will show the four scenerios that can occur as a result of this series, so we can see the clinch number for both division and wildcard based on each scenerio. A warning, this is going to get numbery, but if you follow it, you’ll understand why looking at the magic number or elimination number isn’t quite right. If you want, just read the bold for all you really need to know. The chart at the bottom tells the number of Detroit wins needed for guaranteed clinches, but you need the bold text to fully explain the chart.

Finally, in case of ties, you need to know this. If the tie is for the division title between two teams, the head-to-head winner wins the division, and the loser wins the wildcard. Chicago has the edge over the Tigers, and the Tigers have the edge over the Twins. If the tie for the wildcard, Detroit hosts Minnesota, and Chicago hosts Detroit due to coin toss. If all 3 teams tie, all hell breaks loose.

If a team sweeps

Based on each team having 15 remaining games at this point, the extreme scenerios follow:

If Chicago sweeps Minnesota, the Twins can have no more than 98 wins and the White Sox can have at maximum 99 wins.

If Minnesota sweeps Chicago, the Twins can have as many as 101 wins and the White Sox 96.

Both of those scenerios are based on the teams going undefeated otherwise. Either one or none of these scenerios will occur, both cannot. Also, as it is unlikely any team goes undefeated at this point, you can add Detroit wins plus the number of losses the chosen opponent needs to come up with the same clinch number. Each time the team behind loses, the team ahead needs one fewer win for the results to remain the same.

So if a Chicago sweep occurs, Detroit must have 99 wins to guarantee the playoffs because Minnesota can win 98 games max. That’s 11 wins as the absolute worst Detroit must do to guarantee playoffs. Ten wins guarantees a playoff-playoff because each Detroit and Minnesota would have 98 wins and Chicago would win the division with 99. If Minnesota and Detroit tie for the wildcard, Detroit hosts the 1-game playoff. Again, worst case, Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses (outside Chicago sweeping them) would have to equal 11 for guaranteed playoffs, and Detroit wins plus Chicago losses would have to equal 12 for guaranteed division. If Chicago and Detroit tied for the division at 99 wins, the White Sox win it on head-to-head. So we add 1 to get 12.

I find this scenerio of Chicago sweeping in the Metrodome unlikely. This is the absolute worst case or the playoffs.

If Minnesota sweeps Chicago, Detroit wins plus Chicago losses (outside the Twins series) would have to equal 9 to guarantee playoffs. Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses would have to equal 13 for the division, as they would both tie at 101 wins and Detroit owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

So you see, this is the best case for making the playoffs but it makes winning the division that much harder. Frankly, that’s fine by me, I want to make the playoffs.

If the teams split

Next up, if Chicago takes two wins from Minnesota. Chicago can win as many as 98, Minnesota can win as many as 99, Detroit needs a combination of 11 wins plus either Minnesota or Chicago losses to guarantee playoffs and the division. Both Minnesota and Detroit would have a max 99 wins, and Detroit owns the tiebreaker in that case. 10 is a guarantee of nothing but a playoff game. We don’t like that.

That’s slightly more likely.

Finally, the most likely scenerio in my mind: If Minnesota takes two wins from Chicago, the Twins can win as many as 100 and Chicago can win as many as 97. In this case, Detroit wins plus Chicago losses must equal 10 to guarantee playoffs and 12 to guarantee the division.

I hope this explanation has been some help, or, at least, you look at the right numbers rather than the highly publicized ones. On the chart, C means the number of games Detroit wins plus Chicago losses must equal for that scenerio to occur, and M means Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses for that scenerio to occur.

Chart outdated.