The Tigers record by runs scored (34 games), as researched at Baseball Prospectus:

0 runs — 0-5
1 run — 0-4
2 runs — 0-3
3 runs — 0-4
4 runs — 0-1  (Running total: 17 of 34 games have 4 runs or fewer, and the Tigers are 0-17 in those games)
5 runs — 2-1
6 runs — 4-2
7 runs — 1-0
8 runs — 3-0
10 runs — 1-0
11 runs — 1-0
13 runs  — 1-0
19 runs — 1-0  (Running total: 17 games have 5 or more runs scored, and the Tigers are 14-3 when scoring at least 5)

Interestingly, the Tigers should average more than 5 runs a game for the year … so they should be pretty good. Unfortunately the median runs scored is 4.5. So they’re… well…. about what you’d expect for those numbers, I guess!

Conclusion: the pitching has to get better and the Tigers will win more. And the lineup has to live up to the hype. Or score 5 runs more often, anyway.

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The correct answer to yesterday’s question — who gets squeezed out of Detroit when Francisco Cruceta comes to town — was Jason Grilli. The reliever was sent to Colorado in exchange for 23-year-old, high-a pitcher Zach Simons. I’m going to echo Bilfer’s surprise in this move.

Relief pitching at the major league level is sort of random. Jason Grilli, while having a bad week here or there, is that not that bad of a pitcher. He is a major league caliber reliever. In 2007 after June 1, he had no month worse than 3.86 ERA. This year, he stumbled badly the first week but since got his ERA down to 3.29. He is not a close-and-late reliever, but he pitched fine for his mop-up role. You do need a guy like that.

So my real problem with this move is, it took a major league reliever out of the Tigers’ system, because Zach Miner did have an option to go to Toledo. And Grilli was basically given away. No offense to Zach Simons, and I hope he proves us wrong, but based on his minor-league stats, his chance of becoming daily major leaguer is pretty low.

I get that the Tigers had to make a corresponding 40-man roster move to get Cruceta to Detroit — something that totally slipped my mind yesterday. And trading Grilli allowed that to happen. But I don’t know. I’m just not a real big fan of this move at the moment.

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Some questions and possible answers from the past week of baseball:

What happens if Armando Galarraga keeps pitching this good?

And can he?

Obviously that’s a problem the Tigers would like to have. After three starts, he’s 2-0, and the team has won all three games. His ERA is 1.50. His WHIP is .72(!) And he manages to pitch out of jams. But it’s also the kind of problem where fans and the team may not necessarily come to the same conclusion.

Before we get too far into the answer, it’s best to remember Galarraga has at least a couple more starts before it becomes an issue. Dontrelle Willis is not expected to hit Toledo until late this week, and Jim Leyland wants to him to pitch in at least two games down there. So you a safe bet is another two starts for Galarraga. As a 26-year-old who has all of six starts under his belt in the majors — and half of those this month — you have to wonder if he’s a late bloomer, or if he’s pitching way over what you could expect of him for a full season’s worth of starts. But I guess no one is debating whether Galarraga’s going to be able to keep pitching so phenomenally.

The real question is whether he’s going to be one of the top five starters the Tigers can put on the mound. I feel like the Tigers have to find a way to keep running him out there every five games, especially when you compare him to Kenny Rogers, who just doesn’t look like he has anything to offer any more. After Rogers’ surgery last season, he tried unsuccessfully to come back before heading back to the disabled list. This year, he has an ERA near 8, a WHIP near 2 and he’s 1-3. Texas was teeing off like it was batting practice in his last time on the mound. I just don’t see how you can keep him in the rotation past Memorial Day unless he shows something in his next few starts.

Ultimately, I don’t think Rogers is going to turn it around and become effective and I feel like when that realization comes, Galarraga’s going to be the one to replace him.

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Tigers 5,
Blue Jays1

Recap:

• The day belonged to the Tigers pitchers.
• Armando Galarraga picked up his second win in as many tries with the tigers. He accounts for 28.5% of the Tigers wins.
• He struck out four and allowed four hits in 5-1/3 innings.
• The Tigers bullpen allowed just one run: Todd Jones gave up a home run, keeping the Detroit from a 5-0 shutout.
• Ryan Raburn made up for making the final out Saturday by driving in the first two runs today.
• Pudge Rodriguez, batting second, went 4-for-5.
• Edgar Renteria went 2-for-4 with a home run.
• Miguel Cabrera’s hitting streak ended at 8 games. But he was named AL co-Player of the Week.
• The Tigers finally won a day game after starting the season 0-10 in the afternoon.
• The Tigers went 3-3 on the road trip with Toronto and Cleveland and have won 5 of the last 8.

Analysis:

• Normally I’m not one to get excited over the W-L record of guys, but considering Galarraga’s allowed just two run, I’m more than happy to give him credit for the Tigers’ wins.
• Word of caution: It’s important to note he loads the bases too often. He did it in back-to-back innings today and pitched out of both. But eventually someone’s going to single or double if he can’t cut down the walks some.
• The question is, when Dontrelle Willis is ready, which I’m guessing follows two more Galarraga starts, what happens to the kid? Especially if he’s still throwing the ball this well. It’s good to tuck him away in Toledo but you hate to send away the only one getting the job done.
• But we also must credit the much-aligned bullpen. They allowed 1 run in the series with Toronto. And that one run came in the ninth inning today.
• Before that, the pen had thrown 12-1/3 scoreless innings.
• I truly do believe the pen isn’t all that bad. I know I’m taking a risk in believing it. But right now, it’s hard not to feel a lot better about the pen than the rotation.
• I don’t like Pudge batting second because his OBP just isn’t that good and I think Edgar Renteria would be perfect in the spot. But it was great to see Pudge have four hits and prove me wrong for the day.
• I don’t get why the Tigers couldn’t win any afternoon games before today, either. I think it’s mostly due to playing so many afternoon games and playing so poorly the first week of the season rather than any glaring weakness. I think the Tigers’ day-game record will be a lot closer to .500 by the end of the year than it is now.
• I’ll take a split and winning 5 of the last 8. The Tigers need better starting pitching we can all agree. But the rest of the club is settling in and when the rotation comes along the Tigers should start to climb back up the standings.

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I went to Baseball Prospectus’ team audit for the Tigers to see if the pitching staff adds up to a positive VORP or not. They have headshots of the top performers. What a number of hats they wear! There’s three Tigers caps, a Braves hat, a Phillies lid and a smiling Rocky.

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Cleveland 11,
Detroit 1

Recap:

• Justin Verlander didn’t have it. Early on he couldn’t find his location. Walked guys. Hit guys. Threw no faster than 93. Eventually he got up to 95 but he still couldn’t find the strike zone in the first two innings. It took him 52 pitches to make it through them (28 balls, 24 strikes).
• He settled in to go five complete innings and throw 60 strikes in 104 pitches.
• Oh, and Zach Miner allowed five runs, five hits and a walk in one inning of work. Not one-plus innings. No. He came in at the start of the sixth and left after the inning.
• Fausto Carmona also struggled, using 49 pitches for the first two innings, but he settled in, forced grounders and went 6 2/3 innings in the loss.
• Verlander is 0-3 and hasn’t won in four starts.
• The Tigers batters tried a few times to get something started on Carmona. They had a good chance to score some runs in the sixth inning. But Gary Sheffield decided not to slide, got tagged out, and that was that.
• Miguel Cabrera had the only RBI, driving in Ramon Santiago with a sac.
• The Tigers had 7 hits, 3 walks and stranded nine.
• Brandon Inge played catcher.

Analysis:

• I, too, was struggling to figure out if there’s anything wrong with Verlander. I don’t know that there is. I mean, obviously, he wasn’t throwing strikes and his velocity wasn’t up near 100 like we expect. But I don’t know. I’m not gong to jump to assumptions right now. He seemed to settle in after the disconcerting start to the game.
• Send Zach Miner to Toledo. He is definitely not helping the team this year or showing improvement.
• Tigers were bound to lose. But they’re 5-4 after the 0-7 start.
• I don’t know what much they could do different. They got on base, but Carmona is a guy who typically pitches out of problems by forcing grounders and he did a fine job.

Other stuff:

• Curtis Granderson is throwing and catching and hitting again. He’ll take a trip to West Michigan to get some game experiences in Friday, play in Toledo Saturday and Sunday, and may rejoin the team as soon as Monday. (per Jason Beck at MLB.com)
• Dontrelle Willis played catch. (per Jason Beck at MLB.com)

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Just briefly, I should note the two injury notes of the day.

• Fernando Rodney will visit Dr. James Andrews, the famed Tommy John doctor. This is obviously not a good sign if you’re Fernando. The Tigers tried to nurse him through the shoulder problems, but it wasn’t working and he may need surgery. I don’t know if this is a big hit to the team given his unreliability in the past year anyway.
• Curtis Granderson will take batting practice. Hopefully he’ll be back soon. He’s needed on the field. But only if he’s ready.

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While glancing at Tom Gage’s blog, I noticed Aaron Fultz asked to be released from the Tigers organization and it was granted. Gage posits Fultz asked for his release because he was skipped over for Clay Rapada when it came time to call a lefty up to the team. This might not really matter all that much in the grand scheme of things, except this is curious for two reasons.

1. Fultz is a lefty pitcher, who

2. had great success last year for Cleveland.

In 37 innings last season, his WHIP was 1.32, his ERA was 2.92, and his ERA+ was 158. (The previous two seasons in Philly, it was 103 and 196).

So, it got me wondering: Why, exactly, was this guy not given more consideration? Maybe — likely — I don’t have enough information there. If so, someone please give me the full story in the comments. I know he had a poor spring and slight injury, so Cleveland bought out his contract. But is there more to it? In four appearances with AAA-Toledo this season before the release, he had a 1.59 ERA.

At at time the bullpen is struggling mightily, I am at a loss for words what made Rapada the guy the Tigers felt they needed to call up when looking for help, costing them a proven veteran reliever in Fultz.

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Chicago 7,
Detroit 0

Recap:

• You know how they say “it was closer than the score indicated”? My response is usually akin to “If that’s true, the score would have been closer.” In today’s case, I think both apply.
• Chicago pitcher Gavin Floyd took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. He came within five outs of one. The only Tiger to derail the no hitter was again Edgar Renteria (Last week when the Tigers were three-hit, he had all three hits.) Brandon Inge added a ninth inning hit on Bobby Jenks.
• Gametime temp was in the upper 30s and it was raining.
• Justin Verlander kept the game closer until the eighth inning, only allowing a home run and two hits until that point.
• Jim Leyland apparently wanted to save his bullpen by keeping Verlander the eighth, but he just couldn’t finish it off. Had Placido Polanco gone with the head’s up play and completed a double play at first, maybe it would have been a 1-0 final. But I don’t fault Polanco at all for not making that play.
• But again, Verlander just couldn’t stop the bleeding and ended up accounting for 6 of the runs after loading the bases with a walk and two hit batters (one a scary hit to the helmet). He was probably struggling with his grip. Jim Thome sure was, he tossed a bat into the stands. It probably should have been rain delayed.
• In any case, Verlander couldn’t get the out, and Leyland wouldn’t bring in any relief help until th game was out of hand. A 1-0 eighth inning game turned into a 7-0 ninth inning game.
• Game over.

Analysis

• Verlander did exactly what was asked of him. The ace came through. Too bad the offense got stymied and the weather sucked and the manager left him dangling out there in the eighth inning. But he preserved the bullpen, and gave the Tigers a chance to win. Verlander is to be commended. Too bad the stats are so ugly.
• Where was Bobby Seay? When, exactly, is the lefty specialist going to be used against a lefty? Jim Thome didn’t hurt the Tigers all by himself in the eighth. Lefty A.J. Pierzynski, however, put the dagger through the Tigers by clearing the loaded bases. Maybe Leyland figured it was a lost cause, so he saved Seay for Sunday. But it was only 2-0 so I don’t think he would have thrown in the towel. I really don’t know. But a continuing theme this year is Leyand’s strange use of his bullpen.
• 2-9. Crappy start to the year indeed.
• The Tigers were shut out for the third time this year. The “1,000-run-lineup” is off to a hilarious start.
• The defense played pretty well and Miguel Cabrera may actually have looked better playing first for his first game ever than Carlos Guillen looks at the position. With a sore hamstring, Guillen had the game off.
• I kind of expect to lose to Chicago, based on the previous few years. But the Tigers really have to win a series by coming out Sunday afternoon (TV: WGN for you guys outside of Michigan).

Update:

• Jason Beck gives Polanco’s take on the eighth inning play he didn’t make that changed everything. Polanco said his first instinct was to throw home.
• I maintain a well-oiled team probably makes the right play for the DP to get out of the inning, but I really don’t think we can fault Polly for not making it. It’s not automatic and without an infield that has played together for a long time, the communication isn’t going to be second nature.

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Tigers 5
Chicago 2

Recap:

• Dontrelle Willis left the game in the first inning with a hyperextended knee which occured when he slipped, before even recording a single out.
• Normally this spells disaster. But the pen stepped up, with Aquilino Lopez allowing just two runs in four innings, and then ( and this deserves its own line)
• Jason Grilli pitched three scoreless innings, including two perfect innings after loading the bases in his first inning of work.
• Denny Bautista set it up and Todd Jones pitched a perfect inning with two (!!) strikeouts. (!)
• On the hitting side of things, Carlos Guillen tweaked his hamstring.
• The Tigers had 11 his, including two by Brandon Inge, Miguel Cabrera and Clete Thomas
• Thomas made a fabulous throw from deep left field to get Jermain Dye out at second when he tried to stretch a single into a double. (That was the only hit Bautista allowed).

Analysis

• The bullpen wasn’t as bad as Thursday. It probably isn’t as good as Friday. Eventually it’s going to settle in. I suspect with a few more tweaks we’ll discover it — like Jason Grilli — isn’t nearly as bad as reputation and early returns might make you think.
• The real worry is of course losing a starting pitcher when the minors aren’t real deep with starter helper. (Bilfer looked into who can replace Willis, if need be).
• You also have to hope the heavy use of the bullpen Friday doesn’t have negative returns in Saturday’s and Sunday’s games.
• And the cold weather seems to be making everyone’s muscles sore. You hate to see weather taking a toll like it is.
• But a win’s a win. Only takes one more to win the series on Chicago’s turf.

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