Yesterday got far too exciting. There was a game on ESPN. Kenny Rogers had surgery on his shoulder. Carlos Guillen signed for $48M over four years. I never got to post my planned link roundup and predict some award winners.

We’ll start with the awards.

AL Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon (KC) — Dice-K is obviously a favorite, despite the fact he’s been playing pro ball for years in Japan. (That loophole really needs to be closed, in my opinion). So I’m picking Gordon.

NL Rookie of the Year: Chris B. Young (Arizona) – He’s a toolsy outfielder and the young Diamondbacks may draw some eyes to him.

AL Cy Young winner: Johan Santana (Minny) — By default. I think Bonderman is going to be in the discussion. But honestly, who dare pick against Santana? Not I.

NL Cy Young winer: Barry Zito (SF) — This is tough. I think Zito, an American Leaguer, is going to make an easy transition to the National League and — well overpower isn’t really the right term, is it? — make easy work of it. He’s got a decent defense behind him, though the outfield worries me a bit. And the phone booth is a decent pitching park. But can the Giants win some games for him? That’s the deciding factor.

AL Most Valuable Player: Travis Hafner (Cle) – He’s still underrated for being such a great batterl; all anyone wants to talk about is his teammate, Grady Sizemore. And Grady is great. But the one who scares me most at the plate is Pronk. If the Indians are winning, some people may realize why.

NL Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols (SL) – Pujols. Howard. Pujols? Howard? Pujols! Howard! I think Albert wears a bit of chip on his shoulder for not winning last season and takes it out on the poor, helpless baseball. It would be easier if I thought his lineup protected him better, admittedly. Howard may be able to repeat his numbers. Either way: Pujols. Howard. Circle one.

AL Manager of the Year: Terry Francona (Boston) – It’s not really about who’s the best manager. It’s about who manages a playoff team, plus some sorta voodoo thrown in. So, while Joe Torre (NYY) is always a favorite, and Eric Wedge (Cle) could get some votes if he doesn’t kill the Indians’ playoff chances first, I’m sticking with Boston winning the East and Francona receiving credit.

NL Manager of the Year: Lou Piniella (Cubs) – Yeah, this one’s really too easy, isn’t it? Former manager comes back. Team spends a fortune. Crappy team goes from bottom of the barrel to top. Hmm. Sounds familiar. Anyway, it’s Lou’s for the taking. My backup choice is Dodgers’ manager Grady Little, since LA is going to make a nice World Series run.

And since I haven’t mentioned a single Tiger yet, here’s my Tigers picks.

Tigers Rookie of the Year: Andrew Miller – Besides Cameron Maybin in September, possibly the only rookie to see any playing time in Detroit this season. So he kinda takes it by default.

Tigers Pitcher of the Year: Jeremy Bonderman – It’s like catching trout at Johnny’s Fish and Game (for my Cadillac readers). JB is primed and ready to become the staff ace, especially if Justin Verlander has any sophomore slump or shows wear-and-tear from his innings increase.

Tigers Batter of the Year: Gary Sheffield – When I watch him at the plate, he just makes the rest of the Tigers look like amateurs. And you know what? The rest of the Tigers are pretty good at scoring runs. So I think he’s going to prove all his doubters wrong and stand tall. Obviously, you never want to bet against Carlos Guillen and his .850+ OPS, either.

Tigers MVP: Carlos Guillen — I had to find some reason to mention Guillen. He’d be the captain if Detroit had one. Well, my choice, and most Tigers fans, anyway. I think he’ll cut down on the errors and be productive in the field again, as well as at the plate.

All-Stars: Pudge, Guillen, Bonderman, Rodney — I don’t doubt Pudgey is considered. And he may sneak through because he’s Pudge and Leyland is choosing the backups. I don’t know if he really fits the case, but besides Minny’s Joe Mauer, I’mhaving a hard time picking a catcher who deserves it. (Cleveland’s Victor Martinez has to stop stinking at the job description — catcher — first). That’s why I’m picking Rodney — that’s the only reason I’m saying Rodney. Leyland kept talking about wanting to take him last year, and is still enamored by him this year, even though Zumaya is clearly the better choice.

Gold Gloves: Ivan Rodriguez – I guess Kenny Rogers is out of the running this year. Pudge is always great defensively. I like Curtis Granderson’s play in center, but I don’t think he’s going to be recognized for it yet. I like Brandon Inge’s play at third, especially if he cuts down his errors, but I don’t think he’s going to be recognized for it either. So yup, only Pudge.

I guess that about wraps it up. Any feedback on whether my picks suck or not, or from our Arizona correspondent on that Young pick, leave a comment. I promise to revisit these in October and laugh heartily at myself. Plus I want to credit Bilfer for the idea of picking All-Stars and gold glovers.

(Hey! Go read Part 1 first!)

Yeah, I’m nervous. You’re nervous. Your neighbor is nervous. My neighbors don’t acknowledge that baseball exists, except for that one who’s a Cubs fan and her husband the Cardinals fan. But she says obscenities about the city of Detroit and all its teams — you get that up here — so they don’t count. Point it, Detroit is supposed to win this year, and I’m feeling a bit awkward about the whole thing.

Actually, conflicted might be the better term. On one hand, I’ll glance at a prediction in a magazine or on a web site that says the Tigers are not that good. “YOU %@#$ IDIOT” They are that good. But then I look at a predictions that say the Tigers are among the best in baseball, or will win the World Series, or something along those lines. And I think “ACK! Those things never turn out! We’re toast!”

You see, I’m not really used to this winning thing when it comes to baseball, although if given a few seasons, I’m pretty sure I could get used to it.

That said, I believe the Tigers will win 92 games. No fancy stats prediction like PECOTA. — which predicted 85. Not a bad number. Not that I’m knocking PECOTA. It’s my first stop when thinking of fantasy baseball moves. And I more or less looked at its assumptions, adjusted for my own, and came up with 92. And I’m not going to go through a position-by-position rundown. Lee and Al have done excellent previews to that extent.

No, I’m just going to post a few thoughts on what I expect to happen this season.

1. Jeremy Bonderman is a Cy Young contender. This truly is his breakout year.
2. Nate Robertson pitches more consistent, get better run support, and put up a career high for victories. You’ll feel comfortable with him on the mound.
3. Todd Jones inexplicably lasts the entire season as the closer, despite everyone, myself included, predicting doom and gloom. Stock up on the Rolaids, anyway.
4. Justin Verlander can’t repeat his 2006 performance, but won’t slide that hard.
5. Andrew Miller gets at least one start by the end of the year.
6. The Mike Maroth of 2006 is not the Mike Maroth of 2007. I just don’t see him as being better than a low-to-mid-4s ERA pitcher.
7. The bullpen continues to impress and may even add a win or two along the way.
8. The Tigers need more runs this season, but will continue to be near the top of the AL in ERA.
9. The Tigers score more runs this season.
10. The predictions of Gary Sheffield’s doom are severely early. Sheff looks strong and ready for the season. He’ll get at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs with a .380 on base percentage.
11. Curtis Granderson cuts down on his strikeouts and improve his OBP this year. He begins his ascent to stardom in the league and will be a national media darling.
12. Brandon Inge continues to make great fielding plays, but cuts down on the stupid forced throws. He impresses everyone, but fails to gain a Gold Glove yet again. Oh, and he strikes out a lot.
13. Chris Shelton makes his way back to Detroit as the starting first baseman. OK, with Sean Casey’s injury history, I guess this is a no-brainer, hey?
14. Carlos Guillen comes back a bit from his stellar 2006 season, but his stardom increases among the national media.
15. Detroit stands pat at the trade deadline. The Tigers really won’t need anything.
16. The Tigers win the Central, yet Tigers fans continue to be nervous until November.

That about covers it. I see the Tigers as being a good team at the plate, a great team on the field and the mound. They may not get the lucky bounces and may not streak quite as much as they did last year, but I think they’ll be pretty consistent and will use some of the lessons they picked up along the way last year. They may not beat KC mercilessly into the ground, but they’ll do better against some of the teams they had a losing record against. It should be a pretty fun season to watch. Won’t have that magic of coming out of nowhere like last year. But you know what? Winning is fun anyway. We should see a lot of it.

Part 3, possibly Friday, will be a quick look at how I view the postseason awards.

I’m going to do this preview a bit different, as you’ve read many detailed Tigers previews from my fellow Tigers bloggers. We’re going to start with a glance around the division, the league and that other league just to set the scene:

The American League Central is among the best divisions in baseball. Among. I believe the Central has gotten be overhyped, based on the fact last year saw the Tigers go to the World Series with 95 wins, the Twins win the division with 96 wins, and the White Sox, those pour souls, watch from the country club with 90 wins. When you pile onto that the Cleveland Indians had a great run differential and were never really in the race, it all adds up to a pretty daunting division. But that was last year.

This year? I’m not so sure I see it being the top division. It’s not that it can’t be. It’s not that I don’t see why many people think it’s the best division. It’s just that I think the phrase is being batted around pretty loosely while ignoring some pretty important facts.

5) Kansas City su.. I mean, well, I was probably right in the first place. No, sorry Kansas City fans (do any of them read my blog?). The Royals are a lot better this year. The Royals may even be fun on occasion. That occasion being when Alex Gordon steps to the plate.

The pitching could surprise, I guess in theory anyway. But really, it’s hard to say. Gil Meche? I mean, seriously. Gil Meche? Zach Greinke was once the future ace of the staff before he took a year off. So, he could certainly pick up some wins. OK. Let’s face it. This pitching staff is not going to scare any team in the division. Or the other divisions, short of maybe Baltimore or something. They may sneak under 100 wins losses. But to say “The Royals will not be as bad as last year” is a backhanded compliment. Let’s be charitable and say 68 victories.

4) The Minnesota Twins have a pretty average — at best — rotation. Yeah, everyone knows Johan Santana is the Cy Young favorite. Everyone knows Matt Garza is — wait a minute. Matt Garza is in Rochester! That’s not the MLB. That’s AAA! Well, certainly if Matt Garza is in Rochester, there must be something good playing in the HHHorror Dome right? Well, there’s Boof Bonser anyway (projected at a 4.65 ERA by Baseball Prospectus). And uhm, Sidney Ponson? RAMON ORTIZ?! Carlos Silva? This is the vaunted Twins rotation? Yeesh! At least Kyle Lohse isn’t hanging around anymore. But seriously, I look at those guys and, well, frankly, I’m not impressed.

It’s not that there’s nothing exciting in Minnesota. They have what is likely the best bullpen in baseball, especially their short game. Joe Mauer, if his leg holds up, is a great batter (who, in all likelihood still takes a step back, but is still great). Justin Morneau is the reigning AL MVP. Tori Hunter is a center field god. And uhm. Uhm. Uhm. Yeah.

So I don’t see the Twins winning the Central. They finish around .500 probably. But of course, the caution to be given is, every year the Twins look like crap on paper and every year they win anyway. So hey, you never know. But I’m going with 82 wins.

3) The Cleveland Indians are the wildcard. Possibly the AL wildcard for that matter. But I’m going to go out on a limb and pick them to finish third in the Central. You know why? I swear this is true. Their manager is Eric Wedge. I know, I know. Baseball managers don’t make that much of a difference. But seriously, this guy just seems to be the Alan Trammell of Cleveland. It’s pretty hard to lose as many games as Wedge did with as talented a team as he had in 2006.

I could be wrong. I’m certainly leaving the door open to that possibility. If you’re an Indians fan — first off, I’m sorry — you’re feeling pretty good about your team, its young stars, its easy run scoring, its improved pitching staff. I could be totally wrong and watch as the Indians blow the cover off the Central right to the 100-win mark. I mean, yah, on paper, it could happen. But then I just keep looking at the Indians and going “You know, something smells funny here.” (No, I am not going to make a Cuyahoga joke.)

I still don’t think their rotation has what it takes. And, hey, do Indians fans read this blog?, I do know Cleveland’s starting 5 put up a nice ERA last year and wasn’t the problem. But I’m going to stick to my guns on that one. Maybe Fausto Carmona is better as a starter than as a closer… or better as a starter than last year. And maybe Jeremy Sowers and Cliff Lee will have ERAs in the low 4s this year. But for now, I’m not holding my breath. They did remake their awful bullpen, so Cleveland will definitely be better than last season.

But you know what? Show me, and then I’ll believe. So I’m placing them third. They might win 85. (They might win 95. They might win 105…well probably not 105). They’re just too unpredictable to say with any certainty.

2) We have the Chicago White Sox. Yah, PECOTA thinks they’ll suck. Or at least, finish under .500. And Jermain Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, well, they’re all getting older. And who exactly is playing outfield for them these days? And their pitching staff fell apart last year and had a pretty bad Spring Training. And their No. 5 starter is who? John Danks? because they traded away Tiger-killer Freddy Garcia, who promptly fell apart in Philly. (Note to Philly: never trade with the AL Central again). Wait, did I pick them to finish second or fourth?

Crap. I’m not making a great argument for them here.

I’m just going to say this much. I didn’t think they’d have a great playoff run last year (even though I picked them to win the division) because their pitchers were far too improved in 2005 over 2004. So in 2006, they regressed, and they grew fatigued a lot of people want to say. But I don’t think they’re as bad as they were in 2006 either. (Yah. Bad. 90 wins. Bad! HA! “To be so lucky!” most teams proclaim). And that is the crux of my argument. They were bad and they won 90 games. They’re still going to score some runs this year. They still know how to win. They’re not going away yet. And hey, they’re easy-to-hate rivals. So I feel like I can place them second in the Central — missing the playoffs, by the way — comfortably. I’ll say 88 wins.

And that leaves….

The Detroit Tigers win the Central with 92 wins. (See part 2)
Post to follow.

But hey, I did promise a look around the rest of the league right?

AL East: I like the Red Sox to win the East. (otherwise I really dislike the maudlin Red Sox, their whiny act, their sobbing fans pouring beer on grave sites shtick in 2004, the East Coast media. the Dice-K hype, etc). I think they’ve got the pitching and batting to be a pretty good team and win 94. The Yankees, of course, are obligated by law to finish no lower than tied for tops in the East, but I’m going to tempt fate and say they miss the playoffs. They have great hitting, which makes up for not-as-great pitching. Maybe this is just hopeful thinking, but mid-to-upper 80s for victories and they miss the playoffs. Toronto takes third, a good showing for around .500. Tampa Bay has a lot of fun but finishes just under .500. And the Orioles just hope to finish ahead of the Royals.

AL West: I think the Angels probably win the AL West. I say probably because, well, injuries. They aren’t immune. They win 85. But then again, if anyone knows about injuries, it’s the Oakland A’s, who I believe can ride Dan Haren, Rich Harden and those other guys you haven’t heard of to a repeat in the West. But my head says it won’t be enough to overcome the Angels. They win 83. But who knows. The Rangers could probably sneak through and get past them if they had the pitching, but I don’t think they do. They win 78. And the Mariners? Those poor Mariners fans. If anyone in baseball can say to the Mariners, “Yes, I understand about awful general managers. We had Randy Smith as a GM” — it’s a Tigers fan. Sorry M’s fans. At least you have Ichiro … and 73 victories.

AL Playoffs: Heck if I know! You can’t predict these things. But you want me to give you predictions huh? Well contrary to everything I wrote before and totally homer:

ALDS: Tigers over Angels; Red Sox over Indians

ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox

The National League probably won’t be as bad in interleague play as it was last year. Kind of hard to be, I guess. I won’t say I know a whole lot about what is going on over there. But from my observations and reading others, it sounds pretty boring. Which means the predictions that follow will probably be totally wrong.

NL:East: Mets. Phillies are wildcard.
NL Central: Dogmeat. It really doesn’t matter. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Reds.
NL West: Dodgers

NLDS: Mets over Dogmeat; Dodgers over Phillies

NLCS: Dodgers over Mets

World Series: ?!?!?! Homer pick: Tigers over Dodgers. I like Detroit’s pitching and overall balance more than LA’s. But I think the Dodgers definitely have a nice looking team.

Moral of the story: Everyone is wrong with preseason predictions, so I thought I’d join the fray.

The thing about predictions is, they’re almost like a process of elimination. That’s the way I like to see it. Because when you look back at predictions when any sports season is over, it turns out what everyone thought months earlier was wrong. Take for example, Sports Illustrated last year. (Hat-tip Motown Tigers). Or The Hardball Times. Or ESPN. Point is, they say a lot of things that, in retrospect, we find silly. So I just assume they’re silly and meaningless to start. The teams picked to win never do, so it’s better not to be one of them.

Anyway that long introduction was my way of pointing out, Sports Illustrated picked the Tigers to be pretty good, but not division winner good. And not wildcard “winner” good. Just good. Here’s the team preview to go with the predicted standings linked earlier. (Here is SI’s Tigers fantasy preview, too).

Of course, all things considered, SI was pretty fair. Their concern is not so much the team as it is now, just that it could suffer breakdowns along the way.

Now Detroit has no apparent weaknesses, only concerns. One is injury. Shortstop Carlos Guillen, for instance, played 153 games last season but averaged only 112 in the previous two years with Detroit, and Dombrowski acknowledges that another injury to Guillen would spell trouble given the Tigers’ shallow bench.

The other concern is that the big load carried by the young pitchers in ‘06 will catch up to them.

“It’s a concern,” Dombrowski says, “but we’re not overly concerned.”

Why should they be? No other AL team enters 2007 with established players at every spot on the field and in the rotation, and three closer-caliber relievers. And no other team has Sheffield.

So it’s more building in some hypotheticals, which is fair, I guess, as oftentimes you think “Yah, on paper that may be the best team, but let’s see what happens when there’s some injuries.”

Detroit’s fine. I’m actually relieved not to see them picked.

Some other feedback on predictions:

Detroit Tigers Weblog:

The truth of the matter is, and I’ve been thinking this as I read all sorts of projections, all teams in the Central not from Kansas City have a legitimate shot at taking the division.

D-Town Baseball:

Overall they are optimistic for the Tigers which I’m not too overly use to

Detroit Tiger Tales‘ Lee started his season prediction as well. Part 1 is posted.

Along with the addition of a hopefully healthy Sheffield, the keys to the season will be a repeat performance from the pitching staff and, as always, good health. Playing in the tough American League central division does not allow a lot of room for error but I believe there is reason for optimism.

But Lee is saving his wins prediction for last, so you’ll have to keep checking in with him!

I’m a bit behind on my updates this weekend, but I really liked seeing the Tigers outfield rank so strongly both now and in the future.

Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver looked at what teams outfields could look like in a few years as their prospects develop and found the Tigers combination of Granderson, Cameron Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez (hey, I’ve typed it so much lately I can spell it without looking it up!) to stack up as a top five in the future. Actually, third. As Silver pointed out, Hernandez is an uknown name to most people, but DTown did some research and gave a nice primer for those who are unfamiliar with one of the Gulf Coast League’s top batters. Long story short, he’s no Maybin, but he’s as young and seen as a very promising prospect among most experts.

But that’s in 2009 or more likely 10 we’ll see those three standing in the grass. What about this year? Chicago Tribune baseball writer/ESPN columnist Phil Rogers looked at today’s top outfields. He really liked the (…Anaheim) Angels. Can’t disagree. But his runner-up was Detroit’s outfield of Granderson, Craig Monroe and Magglio Ordonez. (With Marcus Thames as a backup).

The linking factor between the two is Curtis Granderson, today’s center fielder and likely tomorrow’s left fielder. As I noticed and showed last year, a lot of the Tigers success depended on how the young lead-off batter fared. A good game by him tended to turn out a W. And he is a very capable fielder. (A high compliment to both Maybin and Detroit’s future that Granderson will end up trading away that center field position when Maybin arrives, possibly as soon as next year).

Rogers writes:

1. Detroit: Already strong enough to reach the World Series, the Tigers added a highly intriguing X-factor in Sheffield, who became expendable for the Yankees after their trade for Bobby Abreu. Sheffield will probably work as a primary designated hitter as there’s little reason to make changes.
…
Granderson, a hardworking center fielder with as much range as anyone, batted leadoff last year but could be dropped in the order after striking out 174 times. He’s a strong-minded kid who could take another step forward this season.

(And some wonder if Bernie Williams could be a Tiger, but I’m apt to agree with MLB.com Tigers beat writer Jason Beck that he won’t. Then again, who knows with the silent way Dave Dombrowski operates).

A nice outfield today and tomorrow. A nice rotation and pitching staff in general today and tomorrow. And a decent third baseman for the next few years. If Chris Shelton develops and Placido Polanco can stay healthy until help arrives in the form of Scott Sizemore in a few years, all Detroit will really need to worry about is finding a replacement for Carlos Guillen at short (I’m not sold on his being capable of playing SS too far into the future, even if Detroit can afford him) and a desperate need to find a catcher for the post-Pudge years. While not a gimme, filling those needs when they arise does not sound too tall a task. Not a bad future at all.

At the re-vamped Yahoo! Sports, their video topic was the three most-improved teams this offseason. Yahoo “expert” (let’s face it, no one really has a clue what’s going to happen) Tim Brown named his three most improved teams. Who ended up No. 1? The Tigers. Wow. Unexpected.

He said the Gary Sheffield deal was understated, lost in the fray of all the other bigger deals out there, but ultimately, just the upgrade Detroit needed to remain the American League favorites in 2007.

Agree? Disagree? I think it was a great move, and they are improved for it. Along with the continued development of some pitchers, plus the defense of Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson, Detroit should be fine. But most improved? I don’t know about that.

But it’s nice to get the publicity.

One of the more interesting inclusions in the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA system (wiki link) is the prediction whether a player will improve greatly, improve a bit, take a step backwards or see his playing time cut substantially. As Lee at Tiger Tales pointed out, last year it predicted breakout years for a few Tigers, and the BP people had a lot of faith in Detroit having a good season.

A breakout is defined as surpassing your previous three years by more than 20%. An improvement is defined as surpassing those years at all. Meanwhile, a collapse is a 20% dropoff.

So what does PECOTA see for the Tigers? First, let’s see pitching.

As Lee pointed out, young Jeremy Bonderman is almost a lock to have a better season than his previous three. Not a big surprise. He also is almost 50/50 to have a breakout year. Reliever Jason Grilli is surprisingly near Bonderman in both projections. Will Ledezma, Zach Miner and Nate Robertson should also see improvement over their three-year averages. (I see that as signifcantly less meaningful for Ledezma and Miner, who saw his first major league action last year). Along with Fernando Rodney, these mark the Tigers most likely to step up. It’s a good mix of starters and relievers, I’d say. (For argument’s sake, Maroth is also largely in the improve category and will quite likely earn back his starting job).

Meanwhile, Joel Zumaya, Justin Verlander and, especially, Kenny Rogers may take a step forward, but are at least as likely to take a step backwards from 2006 as well. With Verlander and his large inning jump, I see that as possible. With Rogers, it’s harder to say. He had always seen a second-half dropoff in Texas, and that dropoff was not experienced in Detroit. So, what do we expect for 2007? Will Rogers see that dropoff? Or will he continue to pitch for a full season like 2006? I do think there’s a chance Rogers is going to come down from that great 2006 year, but as a finesse guy, I think his dropoff won’t be as great. I’m not sure why it sees a step back for Zumaya.

Rogers and Todd Jones could see their playing time decrease due to injuries.

I guess I’d have to rate the pitching a draw, some improvement, some steps backwards. But Bonderman a definite win. If he’s indeed made the mental growth to go with his physical abilities, we may be in for one of the best pitching years in Tigers history during my frame of reference. (Which, to be fair, isn’t all that hard to do). Should be fun to watch either way.

How about the batters?

Well, there’s no real winners there. The ones most likely to have breakout performances aren’t even Tigers starters and may not even make the 25-man roster. Some had bad years and could bounce back. I’m looking at you, Neifi. (Fortunately it also sees his playing time decrease. Maybe the statistical program hasn’t spoken with Jim Leyland). Some just don’t play much. (Infante, Santiago).

The good news is there’s no real losers there either. Most batters have about equal chance of showing improvements as they do of showing decreases in their performance. It’s just not real interesting to look at. The only real guys outside that, among starters, are Curtis Granderson, who should show continued improvement. And as has been noted, Gary Sheffield is rather disliked by the system and could take a step back. (I don’t see it). Otherwise, your guess is as good as PECOTA’s is as good as mine.

So batting is most definitely a draw. Which isn’t too bad when you consider most parts of the lineup could put runs on the board with just one swing, and, hopefully anyway, Sheffield far surpasses PECOTA’s best guess.

So, there you have it. Your 2007 Tigers per PECOTA: Not much better. Not much worse. Not bad for a team that went to the World Series. Of course, Cleveland has improved. Kansas City probably has. Minnesota probably hasn’t, nor have the White Sox. So treading water in the tough A.L. Central is not necessarily a guarantee of future returns.

For those unfamiliar with it, PECOTA is the stats projection created at Baseball Prospectus. While no predictions can claim to be 100% accurate, PECOTA is a well-respected system and does a pretty nice job of it.

I’m sure many of the other Tigers bloggers are doing the same as me, glancing over it and making notes for things to look into more. Just a few notes and impressions that I formed.

1) Jeremy Bonderman has an 88% improve rate, which we didn’t need a machine to tell us for a 24-year-old of his caliber, but it’s always nice. Of course the stats it gave him are worse than his 2006 numbers. The way PECOTA works is based on similar players. Among those listed were former Tiger Bill Gullickson and current Padre Jake Peavy. Gullickson won 20 games for the Tigers, best I recall right now, that’s the last 20 game winner in Detroit.

1.5) Actually except for Kenny Rogers, the Tigers probable rotation all come back with a high chance of improving and pretty high upside.

2) Although it does see Justin Verlander coming back to earth some, a sophomore slump after so many innings. I agree.

3) Similar players to Andrew Miller were Carlos Zambrano and a certain Rich “Goose” Gossage. Not bad company for the young player, I’d say.

4) If you aggregated the numbers, it doesn’t really find a closer for the Tigers, giving Todd Jones surprisingly decent (by his standards!) numbers but few saves. Joel Zumaya has nice numbers but few saves. (by the way: similar player? Pedro Martinez)

5) Chris Shelton = good. Sean Casey = not as good. Although Casey has a 34% improve rate, Shelton’s weighted average puts his OPS greater than .800.

6) It hates Gary Sheffield. I think it’s underestimating him. But Curtis Granderson came back with a decent OPS of .800. If he stops striking out so much, maybe better. Ray Lankford came back as a similar player. Again, good company to be in for a young player. Speaking of young player, Cameron Maybin projects favorably and he may not even see the major league roster this year. Delmon Young, minus the bat tossing, and Elijah Dukes are the similar players.

7) Brandon Inge came up similar to former Tiger Travis Fryman. And he has some upside and chance of improvement too.

Craig Monroe? Low VORP. (Value over replacement). Marcus Thames? Much better. And Jose Conseco-esque, apparently.

9) Neifi Perez? 56% improve rate. Can’t help but improve on a black hole of suck, he still have negative VORP.

10) Overall I think the Tigers pitchers seem to fare better than the batters. Nothing new there.

Finally) I have to check out my young fantasy players, some real analysis in the coming days!

As always, I just have to endorse BP as something even a casual baseball fan would enjoy as a daily read. It costs less than quite a few sports magazines and is more informative.