Here’s a breakdown position-by-position, the way I see things. You’ll notice it’s a bit different at times than other places.

Pudge Rodriguez vs. Jason Kendall

Better defensively? Pudge, of course. But Kendall’s no slouch. Better offensively? Right now, you gotta take Kendall. It’s nice to remember Pudge’s heroics in 2003 with the Marlins. But it would be nicer for him to create some heroics for the Tigers in 2006. He didn’t contribute a lot to the offensive success Detroit found against the Yankees, and that was inferior pitching. Until Pudge steps up, I’m calling this an approximate wash.

Sean Casey vs. Nick Swisher

My gut says Swisher. Maybe it’s for his hoedown celebrations with Milton Bradley and 35 homers in the regular season. But let’s not sell Sean Casey short here. He didn’t have a real great September, but you couldn’t ask for much more production than he gave against the Yankees: .882 OPS, three doubles, four RBIs. But across the field, Swisher had a .917 OPS. Gotta side with Swisher.

Placido Polanco vs. D’Angelo Jiminez

Mark Ellis might have been a better matchup. He still would have been the worse second baseman of the two, however. D’Angelo Jiminez might be closer comparable to Ramon Santiago than to Omar Infante, even if he’s batting more like Neifi Perez. Polly outclasses him on the field and at the plate. There’s some hoo-ha posted about Jiminez batting well against the Tigers, but against the pitchers he’ll be facing, Jones is the only one he’s seen before (that I can find) and he’s 0-2. Polly wins by a lap.

Carlos Guillen vs. Marco Scutaro

You gotta like Scutaro. You really do, even if he does something good against the Tigers. You want Scutaro hanging around. But he pales in comparison to Carlos Guillen, who is pretty much in Derek Jeter territory when you look at his numbers (.320/.400/.519) and the plays he can make on the field. Scooter’s probably not going to make the bungles Guillen does, but he’s not going to make the flash either. Carlos takes this one, but you will find yourself liking his counter part.

Brandon Inge vs. Eric Chavez

People are going to want to give this one to Chavvy. And no doubt, he is a great fielder and a big part of Oakland’s success. In the ALDS, Chavez had a home run for his only RBI, but he also struck out four times in 10 at-bats. Inge, well, was terrible in the ALDS at the plate and had six strikeouts in 15 at-bats. I’ll edge with Chavez, but Inge won’t be outclassed.

Craig (Hedonitagin!) Monroe vs. Jay Payton

Jay Payton really annoyed me during the regular season. I think he beat the Tigers two or three times. He’s a good contact guy, a pretty good hitter, a pretty good fielder. But Craig Monroe is clutch if anyone is (and there is such a thing). And as we’ve seen, he’s pretty adept with the glove. I’ve seen some people giving the edge here to Payton, and if you want to, I’m not going to stop you, but to me it is, at minimum, a tie. At best Monroe wins that matchup.

Curtis Granderson vs. Mark Kotsay

Curtis Granderson is the key to the Tigers’ success, I’ve said all along. When he has success, they do. He’s great in center field, makes some really nice plays, came up huge against the Yankees, and, apparently, gets no respect. Kotsay is pretty uknown, but a solid fielderi in his own rate, and the keystone of a fine defensive outfield. That’s all fine. But Granderson has the edge in VORP (23.4-8.9), errors (1-3), EQA (.258-.246), fielding runs above average (17 to (minus)-8). Baseball Prospectus adds: “Granderson has shown much better range than was initially expected of him from scouts, but if it ever comes up, he can be run on; in contrast, Kotsay has a reputation for sound play and a better arm.” To me, Granderson wins this matchup.

Magglio Ordonez vs. Milton Bradley

Bradley didn’t have a real hot ALDS. Still, he’s a good player. He’ll bounce back and give the A’s better production. Magglio Ordonez will have to continue to hit well for Detroit. Bradley is a better fielder, but Ordonez isn’t as bad as he could be. If you only get to pick one of these guys for your team, it’s Ordonez.

Marcus Thames vs. Frank Thomas

Frank Thomas is MVP calibre. Marcus Thames, while a lot of fun and pretty productive, is not. So I’m just gonna have to take Thomas on this one. Pretty easy pick there. You’d want him on the Tigers, that’s for sure.

Neither team really wants to write home about its bench. The A’s probably have a better one, if you’re asking.

I gave Thomas, Swisher and Chavez clear advantages over their Tigers counterparts. I gave the Kendall-Pudge matchup and Monroe-Payton matchups a push. I gave Guillen, Polanco and Ordonez and Granderson the advantages.

Baseball Prospectus writer Christina Kahrl has this as a close series, just as I and pretty much everyone else says. I disagree with a few points here and there, but in the end we agree.

So it’s a close series on the face of it, and in a close series, improbable and permanently depressing little things can come up and bite you. A’s fans have learned to fear unlikely heroes on other people’s teams, and I guess I look at the fact that Polanco’s gone 19-for-37 against the four A’s starters, and I just expect that he’ll be enough of a pest to become an honorary Hatcher, joining Billy and Mickey in the history of East Bay villains. I’ll make a guess that Polanco’s going to become a household name, and spray singles all series. Expect one A’s game-winning rally off of Jones and one blowout win, pitching gems from Zito and Bonderman.

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Guess who’s #1? Yeah, go figure.

Not that the Tigers did anything wrong, mind you. Detroit’s a perfectly fine team, still playing great ball.

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And by grabbing No. 1 at ESPN, the Tigers are atop every major ranking: Baseball Prospectus, Fox Sports, Sportsline, SI and ESPN. You know what that means? It’s all downhill from here! Haha. Just a longtime Tigers fan joke.

All along, all we’d asked is for the Tigers to earn it on the field. Yes, we know … their record has been phenomenal, their story has been wonderful, their manager has been brilliant, their pitching has been spectacular. It’s all good.

But before we could completely feel the Motown mojo, there was still one thing missing. The Tigers needed to beat a somebody, not just the Royals and Devil Rays of the league. And that somebody, finally, was the world champion White Sox.

Sweeping the Cardinals of the league, beating the Twins and Reds and Jays of the league, etc., apparently didn’t count…

Chicago dropped to fourth, quite a fall for the team with the second-best record in the majors. But they’ve lost series to all three teams ahead of them, so it’s fair.

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Sphere It

Am I late in discovering this? The Tigers currently lead the Hardball Times Dartboard with 106 expected wins, six more than the White Sox.

It’s not really a power ranking. More, it’s a statistical projection of wins based on past results and if a team played a nuetral-strength schedule, using BaseRuns as its projecting statistic. Well, Hardball Times explained it better themselves last month.

Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson are on-pace for career-highs in innings; meanwhile, Kenny Rogers is 41. Will the Tigers pitchers hold up or breakdown, and will Mike Maroth’s return to the rotation help?

In addition, Hardball Times posted its Anatomy of a Tiger (part 2) examining where the different positional players came from and how they came to be Tigers. The bottom line?

he Tigers seem to distinguish themselves by developing good talent and augmenting it with astutely acquired cast-offs and overpaid veteran free agents. If anything, the 2006 Tigers’ story tells us that if you can draft and develop good young (read: cheap) talent, you’re willing to spend some money, gamble on some players with some upside and aren’t completely incompetent, good things will happen sooner or later.

In it, reference is made to this article at Baseball Think Factor, which users other ways to show the Tigers to have the best defense in baseball.

The Tigers are above average at every position except right field. That’s just incredible. And the difference between the Tigers and the White Sox can be summed up with the leather. The Tigers have a 68-run lead defensively. That’s six wins.

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ESPN kept the Tigers at number two, with this explicable reasoning:

No. 1 could have gone to the White Sox, Tigers or Red Sox, all deserving candidates. Yet despite the Tigers having baseball’s best record and the Red Sox riding a 13-game winning streak, we’re sticking with the White Sox, who’ve done nothing to warrant a sudden drop.

Yeah, they’ve only lost two games this week, including one to AAA PITTSBURGH!  They’re still a top 3 team but power rankings measure what’s going on at the time, and losing to Pittsburgh and Houston in a week? I’d rather see Boston at No. 1 right about now.
On to the Tigers:

Detroit has two starters (Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander) at the top of the AL wins list.

Dayn Perry of Fox Sports kept the Tigers at No. 1, writing:

The Tigers are now on pace for a franchise-record 111 wins, and their strength of schedule to date ranks a respectable 10th in all of baseball. They’re riding a 16-of-18 hot streak, and up next is Jim Leyland�s old squad, the foundering Pirates. Overall, think of it this way: the Tigers can go 41-42 over their final 83 games and still win 95 on the year. Since the inception of the Wild Card, every AL team winning at least 95 games in a season has made the playoffs.

Boston was No. 2 and Chicago No. 3.

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Despite the Chicago loss late last night, it’s hard to argue the White Sox shouldn’t be No. 1.  SI’s John Donovon put them there, followed by Detroit.

The Tigers averaged more than 40,000 fans a game at Comerica Park last weekend as the Tigers swept the free-falling Cards. Now wait just a minute … didn’t the AL Central used to be called Comedy Central? Huh? Well, look who’s laughing now. (OK. So maybe the Indians aren’t laughing.)

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Dayn Perry lifted the Tigers back to the top spot in his Fox Sports power rankings this week.

To paraphrase Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes, �Runs lift us up where we belong!� Yes, prior to Wednesday�s loss to the Brewers, the Tigers had averaged almost eight runs per game over their recent six-game winning streak. Keep your eye on Curtis Granderson as a dark-horse MVP candidate. After so many barren years in Motown, it�s heartening to see this team enrapturing the city.

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Baseball Prospectus returned the Tigers to No. 1 in its power rankings.

Those questioning their success thus far (hate to single out a subgroup of pesky South Side fans, but if the white sock fits…) should remember the almost universal tendency to underrate run prevention as compared to run scoring. As Baseball Between the Numbers points out, per the Pythagorean formula, a typical team can gain about one more win per year by subtracting 100 runs allowed than it can by adding 100 scored. Does that mean the Tigers won’t regress? Not at all, but until they do, they deserve their ranking here, thanks in part to having four starters among the league’s top 17 in VORP (definition), and nearly a four-game advantage in the Support-Neutral rankings.

Because they actually provide their ranking criteria:

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

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Everyone knows Upper Peninsula loyalties are split. “Half of them are Packers fans, half of them are Lions fans.” More like 75% are Packers fans, but you get the point. What you never hear is that U.P. loyalties are really split when it comes to baseball. Cubs fans are everywhere. For awhile, I would have no trouble finding a Cubs T-shirt but found absolutely no Tigers stuff. Since 2004, the Tigers seem to have taken the lead. Olde English D caps are appearing on heads everywhere.

And then there’s the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s a strange one. For awhile, Bob Eucker broadcasts covered much of the peninsula. They don’t now, which any baseball fan would agree is disappointing. They were always a pleasure to listen to. You can pick up your local newspaper and read about the Brew Crew. Last night, the main U.P. television station led its baseball highlights with Milwaukee. And yet, I haven’t actually met a Brewers fan, nor have I seen a jersey, nor have I seen a hat. There must be Brewers fans somewhere. But it’s possible they’re a dying breed up here.

But on to the home-run hitting Wallbangers, or, at least, as close as Milwaukee has come to them in some years. The Brewers come into the series with 95 home runs, good for second in the National League. As we’ve seen lately, they seem to really enjoy the longball in the ninth inning. The Milwaukeee Journal Sentinel reports the Brewers have 20 come-from-behind victories in 24 games  wins at Miller Park. Not sure how many are in the ninth, but it seems like quite a few. Given Todd Jones recent struggles, that leaves me a bit nervous if El Caballo Carlos Lee brings his 23 HRs and 58 RBIs to the plate. Protecting him is Cecil’s boy, Prince Fielder, who brings 13 homers and an OPS of .889 into the series. And protecting him is Bill Hall, who brings 13 HRs and an OPS of .918. So the meat of that lineup is nothing to overlook.

Milwaukee’s woes come mostly from its lack of pitching and defense. It gave up the most runs in the league without a designated hitter, so that’s probably not a good thing. Tigers batters are going to have to jump all over their pitching just in case a pitcher has an off day. I do not want to see a close game in the ninth inning, as I’ve mentioned. But give Milwaukee some credit, it held the slumping Indians to nine runs in three days and, thanks to that, are one of the four NL teams with a winning record in interleague play. And Detroit faces Milwaukee ace Chris Capuano on Wednesday.

A few interesting things I picked up in the Journal Sentinel. (I may actually buy a copy of it this week. Yes, it’s available right next to the Detroit newspapers). Michael Hunt writes:

Not since their 5-0 start have the Brewers put together a sustained run of success. There was the four-game winning streak in mid-May and various flashes of promise here and there, but nothing to equal the near bottoming out that occurred during eight consecutive days of gloom and despair against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington. The Brewers’ vulnerability was on full display then, with the problems at the bottom of the rotation and with the gloves threatening to undermine all the promise they brought into 2006.

But now the Brewers are winning again because they can catch the ball.

It has the potential to be an interesting series. Like Detroit, there’s a lot to be excited about in Milwaukee right now. If they had pitching to go with their batting, they’d be a scary team, indeed.

Trade Rumors starting

First on Sunday Night Basebal on ESPN, there’s talk about John Smoltz to the Tigers, and even Smoltz mentioned something about it. I don’t buy that it would happen, but it was interesting to hear. Now the Detroit News reports Aubrey Huff being traded to the Tigers would surprise no one — or almost no one.

The Devil Rays will be happy to trade Huff and the remainder of his 2006 contract ($6.75 million) for, well, for what will you give them?

Although by no means ideal, Huff makes sense for Detroit. He is a left-handed hitter with power. He can play first, third or even the outfield (albeit, not very well). He ranks, in that sense, as a Dmitri Young -type player without the career average.

…Huff, 29, is having a lousy season (.200, three home runs, 14 RBI), but he hit 120 homers through his first six big-league seasons and could find life with a possible playoff contender to be just the Vitamin B shot a career Devil Ray needs.

I don’t like that one either unless he came cheap. Carl Crawford, maybe I’d accept that. But Huff better come for some low ceiling prospects Detorit isn’t excited over, because I am not convinced he could catch on, nor that there’s really a position to put him at. Given his career numbers, I’m sure he’s primed for a rebound of some sort. So, maybe I’m one of the three or four who’d be surprised because I don’t think it makes enough sense from Detroit’s side of things.

Tigers remain 3 in SI power rankings

No changes worth noting really. White Sox and Mets are Nos. 1 and 2. Tigers are 3.

Spam Filter

My apologies to anyone who has posted a comment and not had it appear. As far as I can tell that’s only happened to one person, and twice. The spam filter flags things and is pretty accurate but sometimes flags non-spam, as Bilfer mentioned at DTW today. I thought I’d best check mine and low-and-behold, nonspam snuck in. If your comment doesn’t immediately appear, e-mail me at mensching-at-gmail.com. Thanks!

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Hey, I didn’t know Baseball Prospective even had power ratings. I’m thinking of picking up a subscription so I thought I’d explore some, thus the posts today. BP ranked Detroit third behind New York and, well, New York, in the rankings of June 11th.

Joe Sheehan compares them to last year’s upstart Sox and finds strong similarities on the hill, in the field, and at the plate. Good: the Tigers steal the best player in the draft in Andrew Miller; rookie Zach Miner fills in for injured Mike Maroth and subdues the Blue Jays. Bad: the bullpen gets torched for eight runs. Ugly: aside from Marcus Thames (.333/.359/.806), the team is hitting just .247/.307/.367 in June, with a ghastly K/BB ratio of 82/26.

I left the links in for those interested who haven’t explored either. Most offer a few paragraphs before asking you to log in.

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