So the latest news out of the Tigers confirms that Joel Zumaya is almost certainly not on the 25-man roster to start the season, because he will not be ready in time. So that’s not a real shocker. However, news that Jeremy Bonderman might not be ready, either, is disconcerting, especially in light of Rick Porcello showing his age for a second straight start.

First, on Bonderman, Jim Leyland said:

“I look at the bright side: There’s no pain. That indicates to me that (his velocity) is going to come back. Exactly how soon, I can’t answer that. But the positive sign is he’s not hurt at all. … The great news on Bonderman is he feels fine, and he’s got no pain in his arm. … But is he going to be ready? I don’t know.”

The Tigers cannot even find a quality fifth starter right now. Needless to say, it’s not a good thing if they have to look for the fourth starter, too, especially in light of Nate Robertson’s pitching thumb injury on Wednesday. Fortunately, Robertson should be fine, but he may miss his next start. We’ll see. Obviously, Zach Miner could still be used in the rotation if needed, and Dontrelle Willis is an unlikely wild card. That leaves Rick Porcello, who pitched Thursday.

He went 62 pitches against the Rays on Thursday, but that only netted him seven outs. He loaded the bases after going to a full count against four of the first five batters he faced. In short, it wasn’t a very strong outing. Bright side, he only gave up one run, despite everything.  Leyland assures Porcello couldn’t have pitched his way onto the Tigers’ roster with a good showing and didn’t pitch himself off with a bad one.

Leyland’s take:

“There’s been enough written, enough speculation, that there’s a chance for him. And that’s just what it is, is a chance. And I’m sure he knows that, he reads that. We’re just going to continue to watch it.

“We have two or three more starts, so we’ll see. He’s a very talented guy, but he will definitely have to be able throw more pitches over the plate. By saying that, I also think that he’s very capable of that.”

John Lowe reports on his blog today Dontrelle Willis — using his old trademark leg kick that the Tigers and Willis initially tried to tone back after he exhibited control issues — threw strikes in two out of every three pitches in a simulated game today against minor leaguers. Like Lowe, I am not going to read anything into that. It was just a pitcher getting his work in due to the Tigers having an open day in the spring schedule. But obviously, throwing strikes 67% of the time is a lot better than throwing balls. I still don’t see where or how he makes the team. He’s built up so much negative momentum this spring, I don’t think two good weeks at the end is going to save it. You might think it could get him a bullpen spot ahead of Clay Rapada, but I doubt the Tigers see him as a relief pitcher. If he was, you know, actually good, I could see him as a closer. But short of that, I don’t know if middle reliever is really in the plans. I’d think a trip to Toledo to continue working with the leg kick would be more likely, if Willis would accept that. But we’ll see.

The Detroit Tigers tightened up the bullpen competition by sending three players to minor league camp on Sunday. At least two were theoretically in the competition to break camp with the Tigers. One of the pleasant surprises of this spring has been Detroit with too many relievers pitching well, making decisions all the harder. Fortunately they control most of them, so if any decisions don’t go well in April, we might see one of the following three players in May.

• Freddy Dolsi — Optioned to Triple-a Toledo. A young right hander with major league experience, Dolsi was having a decent spring. He allowed three runs and 12 hits in 6-2/3 innings with three strikeouts and one walk. I think his stumbles last season in Detroit probably worked against him some. The team might be looking for specific things out of Dolsi that he hasn’t yet shown them. Still he’s a decent alternative.
• Casey Fien — Sent to minor league camp. The right hander allowed one run on four hits and a walk in 7-1/3 innings this spring. He had seven strikeouts. He was one of my favorites to make the team this spring, as the club seemed to like him and he was backing it up with strong showings. Fien will be a major leaguer this season, I have no doubt. But I guess Detroit wants to give Juan Rincon and Scott Williamson ample chances after signing them this offseason. The fact 2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry emerged as a strong candidate to pitch in the big leagues hurt Fien as well, I’m sure.
• Fu Te Ni – Sent to minor league camp. The lefty gave up three runs (two earned) on three hits in 2-1/3 innings with three walks and two strikeouts. He was basically a no-shot candidate to pitch for the Tigers at the start of the year. He spent some time with Chinese Taipai in the World Baseball Classic and seemed to look decent, but he was bound for the minors this year with a shot at a call-up.

So who’s that leave in the competition?

• Zach Miner — He was recently informed he’s out of the running for starting pitcher. He responded with three scoreless innings Saturday against the Yankees. Leyland won’t confirm his spot in the bullpen, but we’ve all been assuming it for the entire spring camp and I see no reason he’s not in.
• Juan Rincon — He’s just having an excellent spring. The righty has thrown eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. The manager hasn’t declared him a lock, but in my mind, he really has to be.
• Ryan Perry — The 22-year-old righty’s stuff has been amazing. His results have been amazing. His poise has been amazing. He’s clearly one of the most talented relievers in camp and if Leyland takes the most talented seven, he’d be among them. But he has what, seven 13 innings of professional baseball under his belt? So I think this one is under debate a bit before a decision is made. He’s somewhat linked to Joel Zumaya, who appears to be headed for the disabled list to start the year.
• Scott Williamson — The 33-year-old righty’s path on the comeback trail has been a rocky one. He has allowed six walks and six runs in 7-2/3 innings. I really don’t see him making the team but Detroit will let him try.
• Clay Rapada – A possible lefty specialist, but he can get right-handed batters out as well. With his sidearm throw, he gives Leyland a chance to mix things up a bit. He has five strikeouts in 5-2/3 scoreless innings. At this point, I think he’s in.
• Kyle Bloom — Another lefty and a Rule 5 pick, he just isn’t doing enough to justify giving him a spot in the bullpen. But Detroit will keep hima round to make sure of that.
• Dontrelle Willis — Tigers are still letting him try to be a starter when he works things out, but he hasnt pitched well enough to make the club. With two weeks before the season begins, he returned to his previous big leg kick. Who knows what the results will be, but I’d like to see him asked to start the season in Toledo.

So to start the year, I think the bullpen looks something like this:

• Brandon Lyon (closer), Fernando Rodney (setup), Juan Rincon (setup), Zach Miner (long relief), Bobby Seay (lefty specialist/middle), Clay Rapada (lefty specialist) … and … Ryan Perry (middle). Joel Zumaya starts on the disabled list and pitches in Toledo to build his arm strength up. Perry might be the first cut to make room. I wonder if a short stint in the show is a positive or negative for Perry. Of course this assumes Zumaya comes back healthy, which as proven to be difficult for him. Then again I wouldn’t put it past Detroit to send Rapada to the minors even if he’s pitching well.

We learned today Zach Miner will not be the Tigers’ fifth starter at the beginning of this season. This presumably places him in the bullpen’s long relief spot, although Jim Leyland refused to talk about it with the press. But does it help us zero in on who will earn a spot in the Tigers’ rotation? Maybe ever-so-slightly, but not really.

At this point, the candidates are obviously right hander Rick Porcello and left handers Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis. I know, the last two hardly make you think “candidates” at all. It’s possible there’s some free agent out there that we don’t know the Tigers are pursuing — Pedro Martinez? — but I don’t think it’s a real likely scenario, so I’m going to discard it.

Since last I looked at this topic, Robertson has gone from not even a remote possibility to quite possibly the favorite. After looking washed up, he has put together back-to-back strong starts. Even compared to Porcello, Robertson is on the biggest hot streak right now. Friday against Washington, he gave up just two hits in four innings while striking out five. Last Saturday, he gave up one hit in three innings. Leyland asked Robertson to pitch more like a crafty lefty after his stumbles earlier this spring, and it might be paying off. I say “might” because I fear writing Robertson back into the mix too quick after writing him out of it. But if he pitches like this the rest of spring, he’ll be the favorite. He just gives the Tigers a nice lefty arm in the rotation while buying Porcello more time in the minors, both of which are good things.

Second in line, of course, is Porcello. He had to miss his previous start with a cut finger, but pitched today against the Yankees. It was the first time Porcello really found himself falling behind in counts, Jason Beck says. He had 23 strikes in 42 pitches. I don’t know if the limited count was due to his struggles or his finger, or if his struggles were due to his finger, or whatever. In any case, he only went 2-1/3 innings and gave up two runs and five hits. Despite today’s performance, he is pitching well enough to remain in the running in case Robertson stumbles.

Willis is the long shot. His results so far this year have not earned him a spot in the rotation, and problem haven’t earned him a shot in the bullpen either. His results have been so woeful, in fact, that he has has reverted to his old leg kick. Might that solve his problems? It admittedly worked well enough in his final inning of work Thursday. He’d have to pitch phenomenal from this point forward with the “new” old mechanics for the Tigers to buy into him at the start of the year. I think he probably ends up with an invitation to keep working on it in the minors.

So to recap: this is Robertson’s position to lose at the moment, in my mind, with Porcello — the 20-year-old! — as the safety valve in case Robertson reverts. Strange. But true.

Like 20-year-old phenom Rick Porcello, 22-year-old Ryan Perry was a long shot to make the Tigers out of spring training. He was drafted in 2008 to be a quick-riser — and there was even some talk at the time whether Perry would make his debut that season. But I think a lot of that thought was based on magic dust and the Tigers being in the playoff hunt. Both ideas were better saved for works of fiction. So Perry just pitched a couple innings here and there in High-a Lakeland and was set for moving on to Double-A Erie this spring as the SeaWolves’ closer. Sure, he’s had a great spring. He hasn’t given up a run yet. He has more strikeouts (4) than innings (3-2/3) and has given up just one walk. But those are just spring stats, and the former college closer needed a bit more seasoning, right? No big deal.

And then that happened:

“I doubt very much whether (Joel Zumaya)’s going to be ready for Opening Day unless something happens in a hurry,” Leyland said. “That’s just the way it is.”

“I only say that because he really hasn’t pitched for two years,” Leyland said. “If he had been pitching the last two years and then had a little setback like this, he might be able to get himself ready. But when a guy hasn’t pitched for that long, let me put it this way: It’s in the gray area now, unless something happens.”

Suddenly, Perry — whose opportunity Leyland apppeared to pair with Zumaya, likely because the two are similar late-inning, flame-throwing pitchers — looks like it’s quite possible he’s made the club. You could point to a few other late-innings guys Leyland could keep an eye on this spring. Casey Fien for one, Freddy Dolsi for another. And you’d be right. Both are more experienced in professional baseball, and Dolsi has already spent time in Detroit.

Yet, just judging by Leyland’s quotes, it sounds like Perry is the guy he favors. Can the Tigers catch lightning in a bottle twice with another rookie combination like 2006: Justin Verlander and Zumaya? Or are they concerned at all after the two players saw dropoffs in their careers after coming to the big leagues at young ages? It remains to be seen.

But one thing seems certain: Even if Perry doesn’t make the opening day roster, he’ll be in Detroit soon.

Oy vaye. Where do I start? We’ve got cut fingers, sore necks, and stumbling starters all making the news today. We’re 3 weeks from the start of the major league season? I’m not sure if I’m happy it’s long enough away to give the guys time to mend, or concerned because every day seems to bring more bad news. But it is what it is. At least Jim Leyland had something to be “tickled to death” over today, so not all the news was bad.

• The first (and worst?) bit of bad news: Rick Porcello was scratched from his start Sunday. Fortunately, it’s nothing that would cause fans to get the shakes and crawl into a dark, dark place to hide. But any time your stud prospect is hurt, you cringe a bit at first. According to Jason Beck, Porcello cut his nail on his index finger during pitchers fielding practice and will be held back a few days. Of course, I was talking with Ian and brought up the possibility this is just the Tigers rearranging Porcello’s spot in the roster as April draws nearer, as well as taking away some of the “Porcello’s made the team!” talking points of the media. But still, the thought of Porcello being injured makes my stomach uncomfortable!
• Sticking with injuries, Joel Zumaya was scratched from his simulated game today (Saturday, if you read this blog on Monday!) I am convinced there’s no way Zumaya will be healthy soon enough to make the opening day roster. (It’s questionable how long Zumaya will stay healthy even if he does make the roster, given his history.) Leyland seems to have paired Ryan Perry with Zumaya, judging by the quotes in the News today. Perry will stay around major league camp until Leyland is certain Zumaya is fine. If that day never comes … well, Perry might want to start making his plans for finding a place to stay in Detroit this April. The thought of Perry pitching calms my stomach some, even if he is rather raw.
• Dontrelle Willis started today’s game against Toronto. Three innings and four runs later, there’s still no reason to think he deserves a spot in the rotation, and you have to begin to wonder if there’s a spot in the bullpen either. No matter how many times you hear about things that went well for Willis, the bottom line has looked ugly. It’s spring though. And it’s important to remember, pitchers and teams are working on practicing things with no regard to the result. So maybe this is all part of the plan. I hope so. The good that came out of today’s line: Willis only allowed two walks. So that’s an improvement over his walk per inning spring. Then again, he put a third guy on by hitting him. So that’s three free bases in three innings. Still not good. Makes me wanna hurl.
• We have a couple of neutral storylines. People can look at both of these as bad things, but I don’t think too big a deal should be made.
• The starting pitchers the past few days haven’t had great stats lines either, of course. Justin Verlander’s was downright disgusting, though he was said to be working on mechanical issues. So let’s not read anything into him. Ditto Edwin Jackson. He pitched three perfect innings Friday to start the game before the fourth inning went to hell on him. Of course pitchers are still building up durability. And Leyland thought Jackson got a little fastball happy. Maybe trusting his catcher and pitching coach during the regular season will help him take the best advantage of his stuff.
• Was there any good news today? Of course. Some, anyway.
• Jeremy Bonderman threw 30 pitches in a simulated game and felt good. Hopefully that good feeling continues after a good night’s sleep. The quote Leyland told beat writers: “I was tickled to death today, but I want to be tickled [on Sunday]. That’ll be the test.” I don’t see how Bonderman can go from 0 pitches to ready for a big league start in the three weeks we have before the season. If he does, he’ll almost certainly have to go in the back of the rotation and be limited to five innings or so his first start. We’ll see. Hopefully he is ready to go anyway.
• That, and Nate Robertson defied his detractors with a great performance on the mound today. Three innings, 1 hit, 1 strikeout, 0 walks. Maybe we wrote Robertson off too fast. But maybe shouldn’t write him back in too quickly either. Like all the plots this spring, this is just another to be watched carefully before making any definitive statements.

Yankees 12, Tigers 3
BOX

Dontrelle Willis had a stomach bug Sunday. It was uncertain whether he’d even be able to pitch. Given the importance of Willis going out and performing his best every time he takes the mound this spring, I wish he had given it a day. But he didn’t.

It’s not that the results were bad. Not that they were good. It sounds like the typical Willis outing where he could have had a good day, but again, something happened behind him in the field and derailed it. This time it was a couple of bloopers.  Otherwise, the beat writers’ impressions of him seemed decent enough. John Lowe wrote it could have been a scoreless appearance. Lynn Henning wrote Willis got a few pitches into the low 90s. And yet, Willis couldn’t curtail the walks, yet again. Another walk per inning, not a good sign for a guy trying to make the the major league rotation.

The final line:

• Willis, 2 IP, 2 R, 2 SO, 2 BB

That line, of course, really dominates Nate Robertson’s awful showing as the game’s starter.

• Robertson, 2 IP, 3 R, 2 SO, 4 BB

It’s too early to conclude Robertson has pitched his way out of the competition for the final starter. But he definitely has not done himself any favors. Heck, he’s worse than a walk per inning at this point. And if there’s one thing we learned from today’s postgame interview, it’s that Leyland is really not happy with his pitchers walking guys. Jason Beck quotes Leyland at length in his blog, but also wrote an article.

Leyland:

“It doesn’t matter where you play or at what level you play. You give yourself no chance if you walk [that many] guys in a Major League game. That’s just uncalled for, in my opinion. That’s uncalled for at any level, and that pretty much sums up today. No one in particular. Everybody had their part, I guess.”

So neither lefty has really taken the bulls by the horn. I don’t think the Tigers really have any day-by-day ranking of the candidates for the fifth rotation spot, obviously. But if I had to guess, right now I think the ranking looks something like this:

• Zach Miner (R) — having a decent spring overall, despite giving up a ton of runs (5 actually) in one of his appearances this week. Better as a starter than a reliever. Only one walk in 7 innings has to look pretty good to Leyland.
• Willis (L) — I think the Tigers really want him to succeed. Not just because of his contract and his left handedness, but also because everyone would feel a lot better if Rick Porcello could get another year in the minors. But Willis really isn’t grabbing the bull by the horns here.
• Porcello (R) — It’s possible of the four candidates, he’s having the best spring. He’s also 20 years old and really should be headed for the minors to start the year.  Maybe he’s too young to know better. But he’s also the one the Tigers will probably be looking for any excuse to send to the minors to keep working on things and build his endurance properly. So for now, I still give the edge to Miner and Willis. But it’s shaky ground.
• Robertson (L) — Like I said, I don’t think his ship has sailed. Leyland had a comment, also quoted by Beck on his blog, “So we’ll keep putting them out there.” And that’s what spring training is for. Keep giving Robertson a chance to show off what he can do. But after another two or three bad showings, you have to think the Tigers should see if they can’t salvage him in the bullpen. If not, they just might have to eat his salary, or ask him to take a minor league assignment. I really hope it doesn’t come to that, I’m really a fan of the guy. But he’s having a rough spring.

Personally, right now, it’s the kid who makes me feel most comfortable. But that also makes me most nervous for the Tigers’ long term future. Hopefully Willis or Miner step up to prove why they deserve it. I still think one of them will, but that remains to be seen.

We’re watching Dontrelle Willis closely this spring, as he attempts to rebound from a diastrous year and regain his control. Obviously with Willis, we’re looking for signs he has found his control, and walking three batters in the second inning against Venezuela on Tuesday makes you think he hasn’t quite found it. But it’s important we don’t put Willis in a vacuum, making too much out of it each time he takes the mound. A glance at some of the other Tigers starting pitchers as they prepare for the regular season shows a few struggles happen to everyone:

• Thursday, Zach Miner gave up a pair of runs and a walk in three innings of work. (BOX)
• Friday, Justin Verlander was chased by the New York Yankees before he finished his third inning of work, as he went far too deep into counts. He allowed four runs. (BOX)
• And today, Edwin Jackson walked three and allowed a three-run home run in the first inning before settling in. (BOX)

As for the other Tigers pitching hopefuls in recent games:

• LeftyRule 5 pick Kyle Bloom really struggled today, allowing five runs.
• Ryan Perry, who I still think is bound for the minors to polish up, appears to have cleaned up the mess Bloom left stopped the bleeding Bloom left and had a great day on the mound. He struck out two in facing six batters today. He’s thrown 2-2/3 scoreless innings in two appearances (or 3-2/3 in three appearances if you count the Panama game Wednesday.)
• Alfredo Figaro struck out three in two innings. The News’ Lynn Henning writes Figaro is fast making a case for making it to the majors.
• Friday, Bobby Seay, Freddy Dolsi and Brandon Lyon all continued their decent springs. Nothing statistically interesting came from any of their lines.
• And Thursday, Juan Rincon, too, made a case for making the team with three strikeouts in two innings. Casey Fien struck out two in one nning. Fernando Rodney also threw a 1-2-3 inning.

So it looks like there will be some tough decisions to be made in the bullpen when the Tigers fill out their 25-man roster. Fortunately, right now that’s because most of the candidates are looking strong. Of course, it’s still early in spring, the stats mean nothing, pitchers are ahead of the hitters and most words out of Jim Leyland’s mouth seem complimentary towards his players.

But it’s nice to have some good news and reason to be hopeful after the bullpen disaster that was 2008.

Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll does health reports. Without getting into the gritty details, they have four color settings: Blue (best), Green, Yellow, Red. Pretty self explanatory. It has to do with likelihood of losing playing time due to injury.

Over the past few weeks, the positional and pitching health rankings have trickled out every few days. There’s proprietary information that goes into the color choice (free link), but it mostly looks like common sense when you see the results. The Tigers did have maybe a surprise or two, though.

I’m not going to give them all away — that’s subscriber info — but I thought pitching would be a good topic to look at.

They range from Jeremy Bonderman (green light!) to Justin Verlander (red light!) with Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers and Mike Maroth falling in between.

The concern with Verlander (subreq) is his innings count jumped too fast, from 120 to 200 with the playoffs. Carroll also thinks there’s a mechanics thing that makes Verlander more susceptible to injury. Verlander says he changed his offseason workout and feels healthy, but it is February. Let’s hope he’s right.

The Rogers caution (subreq) is that he’s in his 40s and pitchers don’t last forever. There’s nothing certain on the horizon so it’s just a general watch.

Maroth got a red light due to coming off surgery for elbow bone-chips. The only worry, Carroll wrote, was he came back slowly from an injury that is typically a short recovery, so there could have been something more. But Maroth said the elbow feels fine now, so we’ll see.

Robertson is missing, but just extrapolating myself, I think he’s probably green.

In any case, as Jason Beck pointed out, too, this is why it’s nice to have so many arms stockpiled in the minors. Detroit seriously can go seven, eight, nine pitchers deep and absorb an injury along the way. We hope the Tigers don’t have to, but if some bad luck occurs along the way, the dropoff in the minors is not steep. Last season, when Maroth was hurt and Zach Miner took his place, there was no dropoff at all. And Wil Ledezma can start, though I find him to be a better reliever and there is a need for lefties in the pen. And there’s always Andrew Miller.