Baseball Prospectus looked at the Motor City ballclub today (Subscription req’d) in part 1 of a 2 part article. Tomorrow they promise to write about the molding of the club, but today’s focussed on finding the spare parts. This is similar to the Hardball Times article set awhile back, but another nice spin.

It is impossible to overstate the magnitude of what the Tigers are accomplishing. With apologies to the Mets of the late 1960s and the Braves and then Indians of the early 1990s, the Tigers are on pace for the most remarkable rebuilding project of all time.

Which makes them the perfect case study for solving that intellectual challenge, asking the question “how do you build a winning team?” The answer is that there are multiple solutions, but few teams have ever presented a solution quite so elegant as these Tigers have.

One of the most important moves, according to the article (and any Tigers fan I’m sure) was “Grand Theft Shortstop” of trading Ramon Santiago and somebody for Carlos Guillen.

This season Guillen is at .307/.389/.511, with a stellar .298 EqA, second only to Derek Jeter among major league shortstops.

And maybe Rob Parker and others should listen to this expert baseball opinion:

A detailed look at his body of work makes it clear that Dombrowski ranks as one of the five greatest front-office executives of the last 25 years, even if his Q rating wouldn’t rank in the top fifty.

Hometown Heroes. Nominally, it’s a marketing tactic. A panel of experts selected the top 5 players from each organization. The Tigers nominees were Ty Cobb, Charlie Geherger, Hank Greenberg, Al Kaline and Alan Trammell.

What do you think of the list? When you look at the complete list of nominees, you see a lot of names from the past 20 years for basically every organization but the Tigers. Yeah, we had a bad year or two. Or 19. As this team has a 100+ year history, I can understand the first four names. It’s not that Trammell wasn’t good, but he seems to fall short in my mind when I look at those. Why not 31-game winner Denny McLain (post baseball aside … okay, nevermind on that one)? Man I would not like to come up with a list like that.

As for of the guys played before I was born, and one was a rookie before I was born, it’s a bit hard for me to say with any real insight. So I’ll go with Ty Cobb, just because he played so hard and he’s almost the guy you have to think about when you think about the Tigers. You can make a great argument for any of the five. (Apparently, I can’t!)

So, please do in the comments!

Just the first of previews about the (big?  important? huge?) Tigers-White Sox series that start Tuesday at Comerica Park.

With an ERA over 5 since the end of May, the White Sox are sitting in a precarious position, Chicago Tribune baseball writer Phil Rogers wrote.

“This year’s team reminds me of the `60 team,” [said John] Kuenster [editor of the Chicago baseball digest]. “The pitchers who did great in `59 - Early Wynn, Bob Shaw - were expected to do the same thing the next year, but they couldn’t. They were worn down from the innings, the complete games, it took to win the pennant. It takes a toll the next year.”

Here’s one reality for the Sox: The staff that had a 3.61 ERA a year ago heads to Detroit with a 4.61 ERA. And here’s another one: As a result, the Sox are in a six-for-three playoff battle with the Tigers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.

I wanted 3 out of 4. I got 3 out of 4. I wish the fourth would have looked better, rather than a 9-6 loss, but that’s fine.

Although we may think otherwise at times, Zach Miner is still a rookie. He’s going to have his rookie moments along the way. Today most definitely was a rookie moment. To be fair, it wasn’t totally his fault. Some questionable fielding behind him didn’t help, and of 20 balls in play, eight were hits and another batter reached on an error. But he wasn’t throwing his strikes as well, either.

In all, the Tigers had three errors and at least one or two questionable decisions by left fielder Marcus Thames. He kept trying for the big play at home to get an out where the wise play was hitting the cutoff man to keep men from advancing. best I remember, that happened twice, and both results in runs. And then there was the play where Chris Shelton ran into Vance Wilson on a popup, and runs later scored off Wil Ledezma. In all, the effort was there but incredibly sloppy. That, coupled with Pudge and Magglio and Placido Polanco having the day off, pretty much doomed the Tigers. In fact, watching the Cubbies’ sixth inning on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is really reminding me of today’s Tigers team…

To be fair, Thames tried to make up for his runs by driving a pair of home runs, good for five RBIs. Detroit had the tying run to the plate in the eighth inning but could do no more. Thames’ bat is incredible. Too bad we have to ask him to use his glove, because he sure doesn’t have a good one.

In other news…

The KC Star believes. Today they published “3 reasons why you should ignore those who say Detroit will fold.” In short: this team isn’t the same team from 2003, pitching, defense, and that phenomenal start.

And Saturday, the Royals thought they were facing Randy Johnson from the right side. 

Just sign the Royals up right now for lifetime memberships into the Justin Verlander Admiration Society.

“You know who he reminds me of?” Reggie Sanders said after Verlander and the Tigers beat the Royals, 6-0, on Saturday night. “A young Randy Johnson from the right side.”

The Big Unit?

That comparison tells anybody who might wonder just how good the 23-year-old Verlander is. In May, he shut down the Royals on five hits, and in this win, he allowed two singles before giving way to the Tigers bullpen in the eighth inning.

Baseball Prospectus took another look at the Tigers and focussed on the pitching staff and possible use of a six-man rotation.  This notebook is free for viewing.

How often do teams find themselves with six high-quality major league starters? The answer is obvious, considering most teams cannot even find themselves three useful starters. We will see if the Tigers are that lucky once Maroth returns.

Jayson Stark wrote a piece on why history in baseball matters more importantly than probably than in any other sport. In his first scene, he featured Cal Ripken making grown men cry just by starting a game in September. Scene two featured Tiger Stadium.

To the people who didn’t get it, Tiger Stadium was just another rusting mass of steel and concrete by September of 1999, a decrepit structure made obsolete by peeling paint, obstructed views and modern baseball economics.

But we know better. Those of us who get it know these places where we go to watch baseball games are not just buildings. They house much, much more than grass and dirt and half-eaten hot dogs.

They house our heroes and our heartaches. They house our passions and our memories. They house the seats where our fathers sat with their fathers. So after a while, they come to mean more to us than just about any place in the world.

In a look at the first half of the season, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan put Justin Verlander No. 2 in his Rookie of the Year watch (behind Liriano) and called the Tigers the best story, but declined to call them the biggest surprise. Actually, Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA system saw the Tigers resurgence coming even as national “experts” were blind to it. Of course, not even Nostradamus saw 59 wins at the break or thought they’d be arguably the best team in baseball.
Sheehan writes:

The Detroit Tigers arrived at least a year early in much the same way that the 2005 White Sox did: good pitching, exceptional defense, and a ton of power. We already know that this formula can succeed, and I would argue that the Tigers, spot for spot, look more sturdy than the Sox did at this point a year ago if you don’t consider health. That’s the big question: can a team with so many players prone to missing time stay healthy long enough to lock up their postseason spot? They don’t have the offensive depth to withstand an injury to any of their up-the-middle players; An injury to Curtis Granderson, who’s been so critical to their defensive upgrade, would be devastating.

Thanks for the jinx, Joe. But it would be true for the White Sox as well if they lost any of their injury-plagued players this year. But his point about Granderson stands. He was the main key to the turnaround in my mind. (More on that later today, hopefully. I have three players in general I’m thinking.)

A day late after it was published, but the NY Times Sunday feature, Keeping Score, wrote that Curtis Granderson was snubbed from the All-Star Game [login required, I think] while Pudge Rodriguez wast there when he shouldn’t be. How did it come to this conclusion? Win Productivity Added. Pudge had -48.5, good for 10th of AL catchers. Granderson had 225.7, fourth among AL outfielders. WPA, briefly, is a measurement of how players do in situations that have been shown to be game-changing events that lead to a better chance at winning.*

W.P.A. best identifies players who have quietly delivered game-changing hits. The prime discovery here is Detroit outfielder Curtis Granderson. With seemingly so-so statistics like a .283 batting average and 11 home runs, he was predictably edged out by the likes of Guerrero and others. Yet he has had so many crucial hits for the shockingly successful Tigers that his W.P.A. stood at 225.7, fourth among A.L. outfielders. (Good players on excellent teams tend to have higher W.P.A.’s because they usually participate in more victories.)

Yet this isn’t always the case. Detroit’s Iván Rodríguez, the A.L.’s starter at catcher with a ghastly minus-48.5 W.P.A., is clearly going to Pittsburgh on reputation alone, while Ramón Hernández of the Orioles (179.6) is more deserving.

Fangraphs, the best (only?) place to find a listing of the stats and a graph of the previous day’s game, lists the WPA stastic for all the Tigers players.

*This story in Hardball Times might explain WPA better.

Let’s say our batter in the bottom of the ninth hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16 and debit the pitcher/fielder -.16. If you add up every positive and negative event from the beginning to the end of a game, you wind up with a total for the winning team of .5, and a total for the losing team of -.5. And the player with the most points will have contributed the most to his team’s win.

It wasn’t pretty. Well, it was for four innings it was, and maybe a couple of nice performances by Joel Zumaya and Roman Colon and that diving catch by Curtis Granderson in the 8th. But it was a victory and it counts. Detroit beat Pittsburgh, 7-6, and improved to the same 55-25 record achieved in the roar of 84.

“Really? That’s awesome!” Zumaya said of his Tigers matching the ‘84 team after 80 games. “Very special.”

As long as the Tigers keep playing Pittsburgh for a few days, they have a good chance at surpassing the 84 team, too.

But you’ve read plenty from the hometown media by now. So let’s take a look at Pittsburgh today. The Post-Gazette writes about the secret to the Tigers’ success (No, it’s not their former manager. It’s the pitching.) It’s a nice look, too.

The mastermind of the Tigers’ staff is pitching coach Chuck Hernandez, the only non-former Pirate on Leyland’s staff.

“He’s been tremendous,” Leyland said of the former Tampa Bay pitching coach. “He’s been a godsend, that guy. He’s good. He’s really good.

“He’s just got a demeanor about him. He knows how to prepare a pitcher with a game plan. He knows how to make adjustments during the game. He’s an even-keel guy. He knows how to work them between starts. He knows what to say to them. He knows how to be a good buffer between me and the pitchers. He’s good.”

P-G also wrote about the familiar faces returning to PNC Park with the Tigers. The past three managers of the Pirates, from Leyland in 1986 until Gene Lamont took over in 1997, and he kept the reigns until Lloyd McClendon grabbed them for a string from 2000 to 2005. All three ended up fired. Throughout much of the ’90s and 2000’s, none of them were all that successful, piling up a 233-under-.500 marker.

“We have a ball with it,” Mr. Leyland said. “It’s like the old days. Geno kids with me and Mac kids with me and I kid with them all the time.

“It’s been a lot of fun. But we’ve won some games, too. That makes a big difference.”

The P-G gamer, if you’re interested. Pittsburgh is quite interested in the success of Pirates alumni. I think it’s worth a skim at least.

The Tribune-Review writes about Leyland’s new zest for the game and even got a picture of him smiling. He’s still popular, they write.

Leyland was the clear favorite among autograph seekers prior to last night’s game, and he was met with noticeable applause upon taking the lineup card to the home plate umpire.

“These people are Pittsburghers,” Leyland said. “They may wish me good luck, but they don’t really mean it. They’re pulling for the Pirates. I’m sure I’ve left some tickets for people who are pulling for the Pirates.

“I wouldn’t expect anything else. That’s why I love this town.”

And the T-R’s gamer.

Jeremy Bonderman tries desperately to keep up with Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander tonight (said in jest about our strikeout king) against a 23-year-old prospect making his season’s first appearance: Tom Gorzelanny. Let’s wish him well, but that well can start Sunday. The T-R did a profile, if you’d like to familiarize yourself with him.

Sent to Indianapolis in spring training to continue his development, Gorzelanny went 6-5 with a 2.35 ERA that was fourth-lowest in the International League. He also led the circuit with 94 strikeouts while issuing just 27 walks in 992/3 innings.

Finally, I’ll tell you I’m planning a little June analysis for Sunday, a little Q&A session if you will. But until then, for Detroiters familiar with Kronk Gym, this is what I’m up to this weekend.

(Hat-tip Tigerblog): The Hardball Times wrote about how GM Dave Dombrowski turned around the Tigers. The author, Hardball Times editor Bryan Tsao, wisely keys on the pitching.

Impressively, two of the four starters and the two good relievers were developed by the Tigers organization, while Nate Robertson was acquired from the Marlins in 2003 and spent a year between Triple-A and the majors before breaking into the bigs for good. The heart of the Tigers pitching staff—well, the good part, anyway—includes only one real mercenary: Kenny Rogers.

… In contrast, Bonderman, Verlander, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya epitomize the staff.

… Of the other teams profiled, only the A’s young pitching can compare, with Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer.

He’ll look at the Tigers batters next week.