So all sorts of things happened while I was under the weather Friday. On top of that, Drew Sharp provided me with a topic to discuss today. Please excuse the parentheticals, I went a bit nuts today.
As I’ve said all along, I like what Rogers brought to Detroit for his first season here. And his loss due to injury for most of the second season of the contract undoubtedly cost the Tigers some wins, maybe enough to separate them from the playoffs, maybe just enough to make it a heartbreaker the final day of the season. Hard to say. But we can say Detroit could have used Rogers in 2007.
The question then is, can the Tigers use Rogers in 2008? But we don’t really know that answer and it’s an $8M bet that they can. Why don’t we know the answer? Because nobody can say whether he’ll return circa 2006 (which to be fair, would be hard to match even with a healthy 2007 season). Nobody can say whether he’ll be injured like last year.
There were statements to the effect Dave Dombrowski did not look seriously at any other pitcher. (Presumably this also means Kuroda.) If I’m channeling the mind of Dombrowski, he’s really looking at this franchise (important change in terminology there) with a schism line after the 2009 season.
I think looking at the Google spreadsheet Bilfer put together helps emphasize this. (So uhm, click that into a new window, look around and return!)
Look how many guys are gone after 2008. Quite a few. Look at the guys gone after 2009. Quite a few more. And then look at the list of guys who will build the second generation of the Detroit Tigers (and hopefully, if Dombrowski has done this right, provide a seemless transition while staying in/near contention in 2009 after going for broke in 2008). Who do you see? Position players Magglio Ordonez with options (probably a DH by then). Carlos Guillen at first base. (Shouldn’t be a problem). Brandon Inge (ehhh), Curtis Granderson arbitratino eligible (I suspect they lock him up long term, he’s on his way to becoming Mr. Detroit), Cameron Maybin under club control. Then the pitchers are Jeremy Bonderman, Rick Porcello (maybe in his rookie season), Justin Verlander and Andrew Miller arbitration eligible, Joel Zumaya (hopefully back to healthy by then…!) also arbitration eligible. The committed payroll is $48M. Throw in the arbs and extentions, who knows, maybe $75M. And Dombrowski can look at the free agent pool in 2009 and 2010 and maybe find something more to his liking than in this year’s rather weak, overpriced (uhm, well, they all are) pool.
So why sign Rogers? It’s the best pitcher he could find for a year. So makes sense to me. Let’s just cross our fingers for his health. (And Joel’s…!)
Francisco Cruceta’s role is in all likelihood a reliever even though he was a starter with the Texas organization. His stats, as pointed out by D-Town, are, uhm, interesting. His K/9 is better than 10. His BB/9 is a nightmare. So his K/BB is most unimpressive. (That’s Cruceta’s, not Eric’s). Eric was not excited. But here’s the thing: I (kind of) am.
Cruceta is a classic pitcher to change roles from starter to reliever.
That is, one the best predictors is a high strikeout rate. (In a Baseball-Prospectus article, Nate Silver) points these are above the expected success of these stats. Counter-intuitively, a high walk rate is also a predictor of success. Why? Silver says over six innings, pitchers who struggle with mechanics will thave their wildness will catch up to a starter. Over one or possibly two innings, it probably won’t. Finally, the best predictor is a guy who doesn’t give up a lot of extra-base his.
Well, I couldn’t find anything on his extra base hits, though he gave up a homer every six innings or so in his most recent season. In any case, at a cost of just $500k, this guy nobody has heard of is exactly the kind of move I was hoping the Tigers would make. I hope they find another one or two. Maybe he won’t personally turn out (though I think he will), but if you find a few guys like this, one might.
- In corresponding moves, OF Timo Perez and 1B Chris Shelton were designated for assignment.
What’s DFA mean? It means Detroit has two weeks to find a taker and see if they can’t get something for Chris Shelton. They probably will. Don’t expect the world. Maybe an unheard of reliever maybe though please? Timo, no. Nothing will come of Timo. The second, why did Detroit do that? The Tigers had to make spaces on the 40 man roster. And let’s face it, Timo was useless (thank god the Perez temptation is gone for Leyland!) and Shelton was not going to be a Tiger in any case.
An intriguing idea. Everyone knows the Tigers’ motto is “2008-or-bust” not “We’ll do fine if the tires don’t fall off first” as I posit. So Sharp says, hey, why not get the most dominating pitcher in baseball (my opinion) before New York or Boston does. And hey, we can’t be trading Maybin or Miller or Porcello or anything. But we do have young Mr. Bonderman under control at a healthy price for awhile. Maybe that would tempt Minnesota better than some prospects or cash from the East Coast would.
While I am certainly not opposed to the idea, as I’m really wondering myself if Bonderman will ever turn the corner from “pretty darn good” to “great,” I highly doubt they would even sniff their nose at the deal in the Twin Cities. Makes no sense to me why they would, to be honest. Maybe if the Tigers threw in Porcello or something. But uhm, NO.
Usually it’s the fans on message boards who toss impossible ideas out. This time it was a columnist.
Nice idea, Drew. But not going to happen.
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