Ian at Bless You Boys put forth 10 questions for discussion. He didn’t give his opinions. I’ll give mine. If you want to chime in with some answers, head on over to Ian’s post and do so!

Do the Tigers still need to upgrade at first base, or is Sean Casey’s production acceptable, especially considering how many runs this team scores?

At this point, I don’t think the Tigers need to spend prospects to upgrade first base. Sure, you’d like it to be a slugging position, but the team is currently running at a 1,000 run pace. Most teams would be happy at 850 or 900. The Tigers are spoiled and Casey is producing well enough not to be a hindrance. If there’s a cheap answer out there, or internal, I guess you could explore it, but I’m not that concerned.

Will the Tigers make a splashy addition to the bullpen by the end of this month, or are they more likely to try and hang on until Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney come back (hopefully healthy)?

Will they? I doubt it. It seems Dave Dombrowski likes to make splashy additions in the offseason and incremental changes during the season. I think they’ll continue to hang on, maybe make another smaller trade. I don’t forsee any of the big names — Erc Gagne, etc — coming to Tigertown. Whether that makes me feel good or not, I’m not really sure. The bullpen is unsettling, but giving away too much for an addition that may not pan out isn’t good either.

Who scares you more: The Indians or Twins?

Indians, because they’re closer. The Twins should probably scare me. They’ve got a better rotation and bullpen than Cleveland, and the M&M boys are obviously good. But something tells me this isn’t Minnesota’s year and the Twins won’t press the issue terribly. Cleveland can’t help but be a good team.

Is there another team the Tigers should be worried about, as a wild card competitor (Mariners, Yankees)?

The Mariners just don’t look that good. They’re a team that’s going to fade. The Yankees, with that lineup, and getting some pitchers healthy, yeah, I can see them staying around. Don’t ever overlook the Yankees, right Boston?

Will Magglio Ordonez win the AL batting title? (Or would you prefer to see him hit for some more power?)

I don’t think Maggs wins the batting title. I think he’s benefiting from some good luck and it’s only been 3 months of baseball. It only takes a great month to have skewed numbers. It’s not that it’s impossible for Maggs to win the batting title, just unlikely. I’d much rather see him set the doubles record. More than anything, I’ll take whatever hitting helps the Tigers play all the way in October.

Speaking of Maggs, will he win the AL MVP? Or if Gary Sheffield continues to hit as he has, might he leapfrog Maggs in voters’ eyes?

I don’t really forsee Sheff bypassing Maggs. I don’t know if Maggs wins the MVP. If he continues his season, he probably should. I think that’s more, er, valuable, than Arod’s good hitting season during the Yanks’ drive towards missing the playoffs.

Can Curtis Granderson break the AL record for triples in a season (26)?

Can he? Yes. Will he? Who knows. 26 is what, 11 away? He seems to have a knack at taking the extra base. I don’t think he should push the issue but judging by tonight’s game against Seattle, in which he doubled but didn’t try for third, neither does he.

Will Nate Robertson still be in the Detroit starting rotation by the end of the season?

Well, Nate’s going to have to give better results, that’s for sure. But what alternatives to the Tigers have in a pennant race? I know the Tigers have good arms in the minors. I know Chad Durbin pitched well and could return to the rotation. But ultimately, if Robertson is stumbling and Andrew Miller is putting uncharted innings on his arm, the Tigers are in trouble. But I think Nate’s going to stick around.

Is there someone in the minors now - pitcher or batter - who will make a notable contribution to the Tigers this season?

I still like Eulogio De La Cruz and think he just needed to iron some things out. He went from being a AA starter to MLB reliever pretty quick. A little more time in AAA Toledo may be just what he needs. Of course, he still isn’t getting the strikeouts he needs.

But I don’t know if either is necessarily going to be a magic bullet. I don’t believe hitting is a problem enough that Chris Shelton or anyone else will get a chance to play much, so I don’t see any notable contributer there, either.

I can’t believe I forgot to pose a question about Craig “Mendoza” Monroe. Will he be the Tigers’ regular left fielder by the end of this season?

Hmm. That turns out to be another “I’m not sure what the Tigers will do, but…” I think Marcus Thames ought to be the regular left fielder. C-Mo, despite his heroics that make some of us feel pretty good about him, just doesn’t seem to be the everyday solution. Besides, you can feel pretty good for Marcus, too.

So, Ian, you posed the questions, I answered the questions. Tag. You’re it. Now you gotta answer your own questions

At the All-Star Break, the Tigers lead the division and are just one-half a game behind Boston for the best record in baseball. That sounds like a pretty rosy picture. I think they are that good a team — better actually when you consider all they’ve been through — and they will hold on to make a second straight playoff berth. Whether they win the Central Division, I don’t know, but my gut says yes.

A Look Back

If you told me before the season the Tigers would enter the break near the top of the sport, I’d have agreed with you.

If you had then told me “But Joel Zumaya missed most of the first half. Kenny Rogers missed most of the first half, so Chad Durbin started.. Fernando Rodney pitched poorly and bounced off the disabled list multiple times. The Tigers went through 19 pitchers. And their defense wasn’t all that great,” then maybe I’d have called you a liar. Both for conjuring up such an absurd scenario of woeful events and the Tigers overcoming it in a tough Central Division.

This is an example of a team primed for a strong second half if they can find anything resembling health. It’s hard to believe the injury problem and bullpen can get any worse, and yet, it happened in the first place. So I don’t know if we can make any absolute predictions on a strong second half.

Still, I give the Tigers an overall grade of B. (Actually, for my quick recap of the season complete with grades, look at SportsProjetions.com, which asked me to do so in late June).

The batting is easily an A. Maybe an A+ if you are the type to believe A’s should have +’s. The Tigers scored 512 runs in 86 games. That is a franchise-record setting pace. Curtis Granderson through Carlos Guillen — that’s 1 through 6 - are solid batters. I think we may see a slight slowdown from one or all of them, but I don’t think it’ll slow down, on the whole.

The pitching I gave a C+. The ragtag rotation is pretty good. Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are duking it out for top billing on the staff. Andrew Miller, who has pitched about half the half-season, has looked really good at times for this being his first full season in pro ball, not just the majors. Kenny Rogers came back from his shoulder blood-clot surgery early and will continue to pitch great, I think. Chad Durbin pitched well after a stumble in April. And then we have Nate Robertson. The Tigers are 4-10 when Robertson starts. Ouch. Can he get worse? Probably not. So I think he’ll get better, too.

The bullpen was obviously a trouble spot. Even before Joel Zumaya ruptured his middle finger tendon during warmups, he was shaky and the bullpen was shaky. It was a problem all of April. It, of course, got worse after that. Rodney was no good either. Todd Jones is a bit worse. So that’s no seventh-eight-ninth inning lead security. And before that? Well, there’s a reason those guys area merry-go-round. Nobody has been that good. The lefty-one-out-guys have been fine against lefties, but they’ve been asked to pitch to right-handed batters and have stumbled. In all, the bullpen is bad. The Tigers are still looking for answers and will likely have to hit the trade market, but that’s no guarantee either.

The defense hasn’t been as good overall. Curtis Granderson, however, has been great. Placido Polanco is above average. On the other hand, Carlos Guillen can be scary and Pudge Rodriguez is starting to get older. He isn’t quite as good at playing the defense of his position.

Looking forward

Like I said, even though the offense is bound to slow down some, I think the run prevention is bound to improve. It seems to be doing that already. I think it’s pretty clear we’re watching a playoff team here.

The Central Division is not as tough as everyone thought. Kansas City isn’t all that much better. The White Sox are just awful and will probably trade away some veterans by the trade deadline and get worse. (For those looking ahead at the schedule, the Tigers play them in the last series of the year). The Twins just aren’t as good as everyone thought they’d be. Their rotation certainly isn’t. But they’ll certainly be dangerous. What remains to be seen is if the Indians can keep up their pace. They’re a good ballclub, but, again, I’m not sure how much I like that rotation or bullpen. I’m going to call them a playoff team nonetheless and still give them a shot to win the division.

That leaves the wildcard hunt. I look for Seattle to come back to earth and be more Seattlelike. I just don’t see the Yankees as closing the gap and making the playoffs, though you do have to fear the horses they have at the positions, the pitching isn’t there. And other than Minnesota, who’s left? There’s really very few AL teams without significant problems this year.

I’m not going to predict what happens in the playoffs yet.

Some thoughts on individuals:

• Magglio Ordonez will not win the batting title nor will he break the doubles record. But he will be more than good enough a batter to continue being one of Detroit’s top batters.
• Curtis Granderson finishes around the 25 triples mark, possibly tying the AL record set about a million years ago.
• No Tigers pitchers are significantly in the Cy Young hunt, but Verlander and Bonderman remain at the top of the next-below tier.
• Andrew Miller remains in the rotation all season, driving up the blood pressure of Tigers fans who worry about his arm and durability.
• Joel Zumaya comes back in late August, pitching in the upper 90s (by choice this time) rather than the 100s.
• Despite Tigers fans’ pleas, Todd Jones is not replaced by a trade deadline acquisition.

Recap:

Keep enjoying this season. We continue to be lucky fans. Not only is this a very good team to root for, it’s a very fun team to watch with not just quality offense, defense and pitching, but some interesting characters and unique occurences.

It’s fun. Try not to sweat the small stuff. It’s hard when it occurs, and yet, the past three weeks have shown us that there’s going to be ups and downs and ups and downs. Don’t fret about every down. Things aren’t perfect. The manager isn’t perfect. The general manager doesn’t make every correct decision. But more often than not, things work out.

Get ready for October, Tigers fans.

(See Part 2)

At the half, the Tigers are in first place in the Central Division and half a game behind Boston for the best record in baseball. They’ve shown some tremendous hitting up and down the lineup, the starting pitching has been pretty good, the bullpen has stumbled, and there’s been nagging injuries and major injuries cropped up all season long.

I decided I’d put together an All-Star lineup of Detroit bloggers from all the other major teams in the state of Michigan, as well as my favorite jack-of-all-trades. I joined in as well. Allow me to introduce them:

• Christy of Behind the Jersey, a great Red Wings blogger who attends the University of Michigan. She also just found out she’ll be a public relations intern for the Wings this season.
• Natalie of Need4Sheed fame. Not only does she do great photoshopping with ‘Sheed and his Pistons teammates, she’s made some DTown swag as well.
• Sean of Pride of Detroit, a Detroit Lions blog, and Michigan Sports Center, a U-M blog.
• Last, but not least, Big Al of TheWayneFontes Experience, who blogs about all the teams in the state of Michigan.

Read the rest of this entry »

This much we know to be true:

• Kenny Rogers comes off the DL Friday. A corresponding move must be made.
• Nate Robertson and Zach Miner make rehab appearances in Erie. Both will likely be coming back to the Tigers. Two more roster moves must be made.
• Andrew Miller will be starting Sunday.
• Chad Durbin or Mike Maroth will be starting Monday.
• The Tigers are activity shopping Maroth on the trade market.

So to sum up: they have two starters coming off the DL and a reliever. That means three guys on the pitching staff must be gone. Most of them would have to clear waivers to go to the minors, if they did not flat out refuse the assignment.

This much is my guess: The Tigers are trying to figure out this week:

• how to keep Andrew Miller on the big club without stunting his growth.
• exactly how much Maroth is worth now, and how much he’ll be worth later if they don’t hear what they want to hear.
• if Eulogio De La Cruz is a longterm answer in the bullpen or not.
• thus, whether they truly need to trade for bullpen help, or if they can fill the need from within.

Most likely, what I think we’ll see happen is the Tigers don’t trade Mike Maroth yet. I think they’ll attempt to send Bobby Seay to the minors. And I think they’ll send Andrew Miller back to Erie. And they’ll probably tell Mr. De La Cruz thanks, go back to the minors and work on a few things specifically, we’ll see you later this summer. There’s your three corresponding roster moves. Not necessarily what I think is best, mind you, just the way I think they’ll do it.

And what of the role changes? Rather than explain what I think happens, I’ll chart it:

SP: Bonderman, R
SP: Rogers, L
SP: Verlander, R
SP: Robertson, L
SP: Durbin, R
6/7: Maroth, L
6/7: Miner, R
6/7/8: Grlli, R
7/8: Ledezma,L
7/8: Byrdak, L
7/8: Rodney, R
9: Jones, R

Ideally, what happens? Maroth gets traded for anything. Preferably something in the bullpen. Grilli and Ledezma are DFA. Miner goes back to Toledo if there’s bullpen help via trade. Durbin goes to the pen and Miller keeps starting. De La Cruz is a rousing success and stays in the 8th. Fernando Rodney gets his head on straight or spends enough time on the DL if there is an injury that isn’t getting enough rest.

Or maybe it’s ideal if Durbin continues to start and Miller does go back to AA to continue working on some things. I’m not yet decided.

Basically, I still see the bullpen as something that will just get stronger as the season goes on and some guys get healthy. But right now, my god, Leyland and Dombrowski must be going through a thousand scenerios. I think I’ve twisted myself in circles trying to come up with what I think is ideal.

This is a tough one for the time being. But, I just think they’re going to make the fewest amount of irreversible changes possible for now.

A bit late to the table on this one, but allow me to join the conversation that came up after Justin Verlander’s no-hitter: Should the players, fans, announcers, etc, mention there’s a no-hitter in progress? Most seem to agree:

• The fans: never!
• The players: never!
• The press box media? I’m saying never.

But what about Mario and Rod in the TV booth? How about Dan and Jim in the radio booth? Did they owe it to their viewers/listeners to say “Hey, Justin Verlander is pitching in the seventh and he hasn’t allowed any hits.” This seems to be open for debate some. Just more than half of voters at a Motown Sports poll said it’s okay not to mention it on the TV and radio. The other 48 percent thought it should be mentioned on the radio. About a third thought it should be mentioned on the TV.

Todd Jones, in his Freep column today, summed up my thoughts perfectly.

There’s a cool line in the movie “Fight Club” about the three rules of Fight Club: “No. 1, you do not talk about Fight Club. No. 2, you do not talk about Fight Club. Number 3, you do not talk about Fight Club.” Under no circumstances do you ever talk about a no-hitter.

Radio could say “Brewres are still looking for their first hit of the game.” or “Brewers put three men on base today, all by walk.” If you can’t read between the lines, then, jeez.

And TV? The comment on the bottom of the article now says, “I was flipping through the channels and didn’t realize there was a no-hitter in progress because they didn’t tell me.” Well jeez, what makes you think if you’d have been lucky enough to pass through FSN Detroit the moment Mario said “And folks, keep your eye on Justin Verlander, he’s got a no-hitter in progress!” I mean, really. What do you want? An update every 15 seconds? If you watched one-half inning of the game, you’d notice the “0″ in the hits column when they show the line score before commercials. If you like baseball enough to be excited over a no-hitter, try watching the whole game. That’s pretty cool even without one.

Fans, players, media: When you see a no-hitter, keep your mouth shut. Even if you aren’t superstitious, it’s still pretty fun.

By the way, since I’m writing this an hour before the game starts with JV pitching, I’m pretty sure I already jinxed things, so you can blame today on me.

When I first saw Jim Leyland’s comments, transcribed by a dutiful Tom Gage, I was aghast.

“Everyone is focusing on the bullpen,” (Leyland) said. “To me, that’s missing the whole concept of what’s going on. The fact of the matter is we’ve needed more innings from our starters.”

Yes. Jim Leyland says the bullpen’s problem is caused by the starters. Now I think I understand why he passed the buck. Leyland wants to take pressure off the pen, especially after a day earlier Todd Jones heaped a pile on it.

I don’t know what the media has been saying elsewhere, but the blogging media I’ve read all agrees the starters could do a bit better. The Detroit starters are in the middle of the MLB in quality starts with 25. They’re not getting the innings from starters they’re used to getting. Yet, those same starts have an ERA of 4.00, just 0.02 behind Boston, who most people would associate with a good AL rotation.

Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen dropped to 30th in baseball. In case you don’t recall, there’s 30 teams. So, that 5.33 ERA ranks the Tigers as dead last. The pen has collected 12 losses, second most in baseball. Can anyone think of a playoff team with a worse bullpen? Anyone? Anyone? No. The worst bullpen in baseball is not going to cut it in the best division in baseball. And if you want to say the starters don’t go deep enough, so the bullpen gets worn down, that’s fine. But the best bullpen ERA comes from relievers who pitched 163 innings. Meanwhile, the Tigers pen has thrown 148.1 innings, nearly the exact middle of the MLB and the second least percentage in the AL Central. The only way you can criticize the starters is to say if the less they pitch, the more the awful pen pitches.

The issue is, the relievers being called upon to do the job are minor league and major league journeymen being thrust into the major spotlight while Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya recover. They’re not pitching less than their ability. They are pitching their ability, and it’s just not that high. Just like Leyland likes Jose Mesa and Neifi Perez, these types of players cast off by other teams keep getting second chances in the MLB under Leyland. Unfortunately, for most of them, there’s a reason ties were cut.

Tonight, the defense betrayed the bullpen. But that is just a distraction from the fact: Help must be found soon. This is not panic. This is just the unfortunate truth that the Tigers will not contend without changes made soon.

I asked several of my favorite all-things-Detroit bloggers to talk about the Tigers. The only catch was, I wanted to get opinions of people from outside the Tigers blogosphere proper. I asked everyone the same three questions and answered them myself. Before we get to the questions, let me introduce my round table.

Matt Watson is joining us from Detroit Bad Boys. When not blogging about the Pistons there, he sometimes blogs about both Pistons and Tigers stuff at AOL Fanhouse.

Big Al of The Wayne Fontes Experience needs little introduction. I always enjoy his insightful Tigers posts, but especially enjoyed when The Panic Button would make an appearance last season as everyone freaked out.

And finally, I asked Scott Warheit to chime in. Warheit formerly wrote columns for The Detroit News, writes a Tigers news roundup, The Cutoff Man, for MLive, and blogs about Detroit sports, entertainment, and whatever else he feels like at Quo Vadimus.

And of course, you already know me. Click to continue.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve heard what Sparky Anderson used to say. I won’t repeat it.So where do the Tigers stand, now that they’ve passed th fist turn of the 162 game season? I’m including few stats, but using my gut feelings plus my looking over the stats even if I didn’t include them.

Defense

Fielding – As a team, the Tigers convert a pedestrian 69.9% of balls in play into outs. This is almost the exact average you’d expect over the season, 70% for an average team. So, the Tigers are pretty, well, average. But they’re actually ranked 19th in the stat this year after leading for much of last season.

Although, as Lee pointed out, the Tigers outfielders are doing much better than last year, the infield is not converting grounders too well. Anecdotally, I think we can recall many and infield hit and wonder “What the heck?” Whether it’s Carlos Guillen or Brandon Inge booting it, the left side of the infield has been most unspectacular. I think Placido Polanco is doing a fine job. Sean Casey appears to play good defense, but we may be seeing some of the loss of Chris Shelton. Statistically last year, Shelton played quite well at first base against all expectations.

I’d guess that they should improve in this stat. It seems hard to believe a team could take such a dive from one year to the next with only one different player. But maybe they overachieved last year, so I’m not sure if they can rally back.

Pitching – Justin Verlander? Check. No sophomore slump. Nate Robertson? Check. Gonna give you a chance to win most nights. Jeremy Bonderman? Not always a thing of beauty, but he’s grounded nicely with that trio. The front line of starters has been fine and has nothing to worry about.

The second line of starters? I’m not so sure. Both Mike Maroth and Chad Durbin have a good win-loss ratio. Most times they take the mound, the Tigers win. But is this because of them, or despite them? I have to say despite is more likely the answer. Maroth is a fine No. 5 starter. He’s okay. He helps mix it up, give opposing teams something else to look at, and he’s left handed. You need that. But his ERA, his strikeouts, all his other peripherals? I don’t like them. I feel like we’ve got some trouble coming up. Chad Durbin has been better. He’s settled in. He’s got some nice starts, some quality starts. But let’s not forget he’s not overpowering. He’s not overwhelming. He’s also a fine No. 5 guy. This combination of two is going to take a few lumps sooner or later. That’s the problem: two No. 5 guys to go with maybe a one and couple of twos.

One of the 5s will be replaced by Kenny Rogers, who should be coming back from injury before the All Star break, all reports say. If he can do so successfully, it’s an upgrade. As well, Andrew Miller very well might be ready to come in as an impact pitcher. I don’t know if he can duplicate Verlander’s rookie season — that’s a pretty high bar. But he can probably give you a better shot to win than what I expect Durbin and Maroth to become sooner than later. Either way, either Miller or Rogers should improve the pitching so that the expected dropoff doesn’t occur. I’m not sure if I’d expect both. I don’t know how I’d feel about three lefties and two righties. But overall, I like the starting pitching now and in the future. And hopefully someone from the rotation could be bumpe

The bullpen is more or less awful. You can’t make excuses for it either. Fernando Rodney has hopefully rebounded from injury and mechanics problems. Todd Jones is going to scare you but he’s going to do his job. Bobby Seay, most nights and used in shorter situations, is solid. Heck, maybe Tim Byrdak can even continue what he’s doing. Nobody said a bullpen had to be stocked with marquee names. That only happens if the market is in Boston or New York (or Minnesota). All it has do do is be able to mix and match as needed to get the results.

But Jason Grilli, Wil Ledezma? Grilli started off awful, did okay, then stank. Ledezma started off okay, than stank. Jose Mesa? I still can’t figure him out. Sometimes he pitches. After coming off the DL, mostly he does better than the other guys. (Update: I think I phrased this wrong and didn’t catch it. I mean he does better than Grilli and Ledezma). But he’s just sorta taking up space. With this trio, we’re talking discount ERAs: 7-11. It makes me afraid whenever they take the mound. Then again, the same can probable be said for the rest. The bullpen must improve, internally or externally, for the Tigers to compete.

Offense

The offense has me tickled, to use a Jim Leylandism. It’s among the top scoring in baseball, and this isn’t entirely a fluke. We knew it was going to be pretty good. Yeah, there’s some backsliding that is going to occur. Magglio Ordonez is putting together an easy All-Star season, and he’s staying in the MVP talk. But is he going to put up 80 doubles and 35 homers? I’m not so sure about that. Curtis Granderson is flying all over the basepaths, has just an incredible slugging (.580). While a lot of that is the maturation of a young player, I’m not sure he cane continue it all season. Placido Polanco… well… okay, Placido never had any trouble putting the bat on the ball, honestly, I think he’s going to keep it up. Ditto Carlos Guillen.

Then we have some guys who are either doing what can be expected or might improve a wee bit. I’m thinking Gary Sheffield here. Sheff has shown the rest of the team how to take a walk, and they’ve learned. He’s scoring a lot. He is a smart baserunner. He came out of the gate slow, and he’s still pressing and now getting the needed hits with runners in scoring position. But he’s really shown signs it’s turning around. This guy can flat-out hit. He’s not doing it consistent enough, but it’s coming.

Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe… they’re hitting homers and striking out about as expected. Both are on pace for 150 Ks. Monroe’s power is down, he’s on a 20 HR pace, and Inge’s is slightly up, at 32 pace. In the end, in the tween they’ll meet.

Pudge has a pretty bad line by his standards — or catching standards, period — .253 AVG, .263 OBP, .393 SLG. Either he’s showing his age or this will get better. And I’m not really sure which.

Then there’s Sean Casey. Casey can’t hit in the AL, I swear. While he did okay against St. Louis, I’m not about to say he’s turned the ship around until he does it for another couple of weeks. Maybe there is such as thing as a National League player, although one might expect those to be fast and smart on the basepaths. But Casey’s problems go much further than that. He can’t hit right-handed pitching (.230 avg, .279 OBP, .292 SLG). And that’s pretty much the chief job requirement of a left handed first baseman. And he keeps hitting the ball in the air, not liners or grounders like he has in the past. Right now, this isn’t really hurting the team. But frankly, he’s hitting worse than Chris Shelton when the redhead got demoted to be replaced by … Casey. While Shelton may not be doing much in Toledo, Casey either has to step it up — big time — or a replacement in or out of the organization has to be found. He can’t continue to be allowed to stink it up at the plate, especially when some others in the offense slow down. He’s not a gold glove first baseman, either.

Off the bench, Neifi is okay a couple of days a month. Omar Infante needs more playing time. He’s a good player, he proves that when he starts. But Neifi is still Leyland’s favored son, it seems. Marcus Thames is an incomplete. He fields fine enough at first base. Maybe he needs a months worth of regular playing time to see if he can keep hitting like last year, because his .662 OPS says he isn’t hitting too well right now.

My conclusions

The bats are carrying the team. The defense has to step up to take pressure off the pitching. The starting pitching — while solid — has to go seven innings more often to keep the shaky bullpen out of the game. And the bullpen simply must improve anyway.

While this report card may sound mediocre at best for the baseball fan whose only knowledge of the Tigers comes from 2006, it’s actually not a bad picture. The Tigers are competing in the Central. Despite injuries, in the long run they are probably one of the top four teams in the AL and top two teams in the AL Central.

With a summer roster move or two and some players come back from injuries (hopefully) near old form, the Tigers are actually in a pretty good position right now, I’d say. Sure, we’d like them to hit better, pitch better and field better. But looking around the league, they’ve done each well enough to be fine.

First quarter grade: B
First quarter standings: First/second place, AL Central. (this post was a bit late, so it’s second today). Would be a playoff team.

I’ve sent a few questions out to a couple of Detroit sports bloggers to get their feelings on how the Tigers have done so far. I’ll post those when I receive the replies!

Came across this tidbit on spring training stats in the “Every Given Sunday” column at Baseball Prospectus (sub) today.

The utility of spring training statistics has long been debated.

Most baseball people believe they mean little in predicting regular-season performance. John Dewan, founder of STATS, Inc. has found that a spike in slugging percentage during exhibition play can be an indicator for a potential breakout seasons by hitters.

(This Beyond the Box Score analysis begs to differ).

Anyway, that led me to look for the original. I found this statement by Dewan at RotoAuthority:

“A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season.”

If this is in fact true, which Tigers does it apply to? A glance at the Tigers stats:

(Side note: Holy Cameron Maybin! .905 and an OPS of 1.425? Of course, Jim Leyland used him wisely. But dang!)

(Side note 2: I can’t make borders appear even when I code them. Sometimes Wordpress drives me nuts).

Two guys were closer to that .200 level, but fell short:

Sabermetric great TangoTiger has a community forecast project for forecasters. If you’ve got a serious OPS and ERA forecast for the Tigers, or any other team, drop by his site and give a hand.