And with today’s game over, the season has ended. It didn’t really bother me until Mario Impemba pointed out the next broadcast would be in March. MARCH. That’s five months and countless feet of snow from now! This baseball season just went so fast. Even with the disappointing premature ending, it was a good one. Just a few memories.

• Magglio Ordonez won the batting title with a .363 average. WOW! Who’d have thunk it?
• Placido Polanco went the entire season without an error. While that may not be a good sabermetric measure of a season, it’s still quite a feat. Especially when you consider he hasn’t made an error since summer 2006. His range may not be perfect, but he’s a solid second baseman every day. I think he’ll get some Gold Glove consideration, just for the fact voters will see no errors and go ga-ga. But it’s still political.
• Curtis Granderson joining Willie Mays and Frank Schulte in the 20-20-20-20 club. Granderson is the only in the 23-23-23-23 club, Lee at Tiger Tales tells us. It’s just a statistical thing of course. Sorta fluky in nature, but yet, a show off a well rounded player. Definitely cool.
• I was trying to think of my favorite memory for the season. That’s pretty hard to do. FSN showed a few clips.
• The 3:30 a.m. walkoff might have been my favorite. That was just amazing because the game didn’t start for so late, then seemed like it may never end. Considering Detroit really needed a win against the Yankees, it was all the better.
• Justin Verlander’s no-hitter was probably my favorite, because other than the excitement of the playoffs in 2006, I’m not sure I could think of a more electrifying game. By the time Magglio made a sliding catch and Neifi Perez made an amazing no-hit saving play, it was just all the more improbable and awesome. It’s definitely a game I, and probably most others, won’t forget.
• I also remember Granderson’s catch over the fence to rob Boston. Detroit was on a roll and swept the Sox and looked like the best team in baseball. *wistful sigh.*

So there were plenty of good moments. Some great achievements. A lot of fun, some heartbreak. Everything that makes you love baseball. Too bad it ended a couple of weeks too soon. Over the next month, I’ll try to analyze a few things that went right and wrong and, interestingly enough, show how April pointed out how the season might end.

And now we bid a fond farewell to Sean Casey, who won’t be coming back. I think this is farewell for Kenny Rogers, but we don’t know yet. Pudge, I think we’ll see again, but it is possible he spent his last day in the D.

Update: Danny Knobler reports the Tigers won’t exercise the option on Pudge, meaning they’ll be looking for a catcher. Earlier today, I had an outlandish, tossaway theory about trading Cam Maybin for a catcher and signing an outfielder. Hmm. Maybe I’m not totally loony. Nah. I probably am. If true, the Tigers need a shortstop, catcher and left fielder, in that order of priority.
In the meantime, Go Cubbies!

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I really planned to address this question after the season was over. But with a blog posting at D-Town, a Detroit News article by Lynn Henning and reaction at the MotownSports forum, now seems as good as any time.

Economics up front

The Tigers have a $13 M club option for Pudge Rodriguez with a guaranteed $3M buyout. That’s money they owe him either way, so think of the cost of Pudge in 2008 as $10M, not $13M, so 10M is the figure I’ll use in the rest of the post. The question put forth by the News’ headline writer: “Is Pudge WORTH IT (sic)”? This is not just a baseball skills question.

• Are Pudge’s baseball skills worth it?

It seems to me, no. Catchers age hard, and many baseball people thought Pudge would see his baseball abilities decrease long before the fourth year of the contract.

Now, his defense is waning. His caught stealing rate is 26.2 percent, sixth among regular starters in the A.L. (”Regular starters” is my estimation. Mauer is not “qualified” but started 76 games. That seemed regular enough). The number of passed balls + wild pitches (I combine those because it’s up to the scorekeeper to decide who gets the blame, it’s up to the catcher to stop as many pitches as possible. Some wild pitches were obviously uncatchable, some I’ve observed I thought many catchers would corral). And he has the second most errors in the AL. However, his range factor is second best.

At the plate, Pudge has an OPS+ of 84 and a VORP of 8.5. His OPS+ number is compared to a baseline average of 100 (average) since 2004. He is 16% worse than it. His value above replacement being just 8.5 does not make me think he’s significantly all that good. He refuses to take a walk, so his avg/obp/slg is .274/.286/.417. You can see his splits yourself, but there’s no magic bullet in there that says his stats are lying to you.

Compared to others in MLB

To put this into perspective though, his defensive stats make him appear slightly worse than Cleveland’s Victor Martinez and about the same as NY’s Jorge Posada. Both are significantly better hitters. Posada has an OPS+ of 153. This season is a career high, however, I wouldn’t predict that into the future much. His VORP is 57.8.

Comparing costs, Jorge Posada (who is a free agent after this season) cost $12M. VMart, who is under club control still, cost $3.2M, a real bargain. Oh, and Boston’s Jason Varitek, better defensively than Pudge all around, cost $11M.

Compared to teammates

Last year, Vance Wilson has an OPS+ of 91 in 56 games. His defense did not make me think he sucked at it. And sabermetrically, saying a catcher makes a pitcher better is not based on stats. Mike Rabelo has an OPS+ of 76. (.263/.306/.358). Yes, Rabelo gets on base more often than Pudge, although his power is less right now.

Wilson’s Catcher ERA in 2006: 3.91. Pudge’s: 3.82). CERA may not be perfect, but in this case, it shows pitchers did well no matter who was the backstop. In 2007, Pudge’s ERA is 4.64 and Rabelo’s is 4.82. In both cases, Pudge was better. But I don’t see it as a significant difference.

Baseball conclusion

It seems to be, from a baseball dollars sense, Pudge’s value relative to his $10M cost is way, way less. He is not in Posada’s class. Not in VMart’s class. I’m not sure I’d want to put him in Varitek’s class. He’s hardly above his teammates. And Pudge is declining. And remember the direction we must continue to look is forward. Will Pudge be better than Rabelo and Wilson next season? Wilson is coming back from surgery on his elbow and probably can’t keep a starter’s workload. Most people don’t want to see Rabelo as an every day starter. And yet… Pudge is not significantly better. So how is he the one worth $10M?

This also helps answer the question of whether there are alternatives. Compared to the sunk cost contract of Wilson (in other words, Wilson is here either way next year, so he’s 0. Pudge is either going to cost 0 to not return or 10 to return), Pudge is definitely too costly. Compared to Mike Rabelo (who can return at likely little more than league minimum) Pudge is also way too costly.

On the free agent market, the cost of a name catcher would be several million dollars and multiple years. But, it’s my belief Pudge’s skills are declining such he should be compared to a backup, not a name starter. From that sense, I would not want to pay him $10M.

• Then what about intangibles?

The problem with intangibles lies in the word itself. It’s not tangible. It’s hard to quantify them. Some of the more intangible questions I thought of follow. I’ll give my opinions.

How much is Pudge’s leadership worth?

In a rudderless, young team, maybe something. On a team full of leaders (think: Carlos Guillen… think Jim Leyland), this seems not to be worth that much. Diminishing returns.

How much does Pudge make other teams think?

There might be some mystique to the future Hall of Famer. But there’s probably not much thought going on in the pitcher’s mind with runners on than “Throw balls, he’ll swing at bad pitches.” So I think this isn’t worth much either.

How much does Pudge make other players want to play in Detroit?

At some point in time, this was worth something. That point was 2005 and 2006 when Pudge was the star of an upstart club. Detroit was paying him more than his value, and recruitment ability was probably an intangible they paid for. Maybe now not everyone wants to play for the Tigers. But a club with some young stars, a sold out stadium, a no-hit pitcher, an MVP candidate… this is not significant value.

Will the loss of Pudge cause problems in the locker room?

Due to the above few questions, I think no. The Tigers look to be a perenniel postseason contender with some mature players. I doubt it’s going to cause a raucous if they don’t bring him back.

Conclusion: This doesn’t outweigh the cost above Pudge’s baseball worth.

• Do they owe Pudge anything?

The contract he was given following 2003 was above and beyond what he would have gotten. He earned a good amount of money, had four guaranteed years during a time there were injury fears. And he was able to cement his Hall of Fame credentials (as if they needed it!) by leading the club from the depths of 2003 to the World Series. It is not good business sense or fair to the other guys to reward him with an extension.

• Can the money be spent better elsewhere?

In baseball, the goal is to win games, obviously. But how do you win games? Limit runs. Score runs of your own. That’s what the Pythagorean theorem can predict a team’s record from runs scored and allowed. So the question to me is, can this $10M be better spent to maximize the difference between RS and RA? If either the cost of upgrading other positions was prohibitive or they didn’t need it, then maybe it’s worth it to pay Pudge.

However, the Tigers might need an outfielder. We don’t know if Cam Maybin is the answer next year to the LF problem. The Tigers probably need a starting pitcher, maybe two. The Tigers need a better first baseman. The Tigers could probably use some bullpen help (and must sign a closer or re-sign Todd Jones).

While an estimated $20M or s comes off the payrole from players who definitely aren’t coming back next season, I would say the $10M not given to Pudge would help in filling these needs.

• My conclusion

You can guess by now I don’t think Detroit should bring “the little Pudgy one,” as Rod Allen would call him, back with that extension. I was so thankful for when he signed. He is a major face of the organization. He helped make the Tigers who they are today. But the cost of the extension is far more than he would make on the free agent market, more than his worth and more than the cost of replacing most, if not all, of his lowly production on offense and defense.

I think they have to let him go.

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As The Hardball Times released an update of its zone ratings (definition), which is just one of several defensive metrics out there, I thought I’d look to see how some Tigers starters are doing. Just a quick primer, the stat measures how many balls a player gets to inside a defined area by their position. Further, higher number is better. It’s hard to put into perspective how much better the image of their defense looks, but this is just one way to glance and compare.

• 1st base, Sean Casey, near the bottom of the majors. Cleveland’s Casey Blake is about average, if you want to compare.
• 2nd base, Placido Polanco is in the upper 10 of the majors.
• 3rd base, Brandon Inge ranks seventh at third base.
• SS, Carlos Guillen is seventh from the bottom. Derek Jeter is nearly at the bottom. Make what you will of that one!
• OF, Curtis Granderson is second at CF, behind Ichiro; Magglio Ordonez, RF, middle to upper third ranking; and there’s no everyday left fielder to speak of.

Just from the perspective of what I observe, I think those rankings look pretty much on.

Also, Pudge Rodriguez has let by quite a few wild pitches and passed balls that he would have gotten to in past years. His percentage of runners caught stealing is half what it was last year — or the rest of his career.

Another ranking is for the team: defensive efficiency. That’s the number of batted balls turned into outs. If 8 batted balls are turned into outs, it’s .800. Average is about .700.

The Tigers were near the best in baseball in 2006. In 2007, they have .6995, which ranks them 19th.

From my perspective, this makes sense too. I think you can tell the defense isn’t as good. Guillen is making too many blunders at second short (oops). I’m not real happy with Casey’s play at first. Inge is good, but makes errors at third. And the outfield, outside of Granderson, is not very impressive. I think Magglio Ordonez is playing better defense, but it doesn’t strike me as a strong point of the team.

Conclusion: While we look at the pitchers and say they’re not doing as well this year — pretty clear that is true — they’re not getting as much help as they did last year either. The defense has to step up, too. Cam Maybin adjusting to left field faster would help this, but let’s remember the kid is 20 and learning a new position in the majors, even if it’s similar to his natural center field. So it’s pretty clear this is the defense dealt to the Tigers pitches this year. They’ll just have to make the best of it.

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I went to the stats to answer that question. And boy, it didn’t take long to find an answer.

Detroit pitching now has the 11th best ERA in the American League. Another way of saying that is fourth worst.  Just a month ago, I think the Tigers were in the middle of the pack and moving up. And now, Texas, Chicago and Tampa Bay are the only teams with worse ERA this year.

Did that sink in? Kansas City has a better ERA. Kansas. City. A better ERA than a team  with Jeremy Bomber-man and Justin  “I had a no hitter! really!” Verlander.  Bonderman is at best, well, average. Verlander does fine, so he is hereby excluded from this conversation. And what of the rest of the staff? Nate Robertson stinks this year. And the other two roles have been filled by a guy in his second year of pro ball, and a parade of folks making their first starts in the majors, and Chad Durbin. So I guess it shouldn’t really be a surprise. The team has 54 quality starts, also 11th in the AL.

So the starters are the problem right? Well, have you seen the bullpen? No new information there. Not good. Followed by probably worse. At least Fernando Rodney bridges the gap to Todd Jones, making a lead after seven innings infinitely safer than a few weeks ago.  Remember when the “experts” thought Jones was the weak link of the bullpen? Oh for that to be the case!

Honestly, I don’t know how the Tigers are in the hunt for the division title (or wildcard, a bit out of that hunt though).

So that’s in the past. What we care about now, with Cleveland coming to town, is the future.

I’d like to say with Joel Zumaya back, and possibly Kenny Rogers and Andrew Miller by the end of the week, things will go better. On the other hand, I’d like to say even with the awful pitching we’ve seen, don’t expect it to get much better. But I’ve got to be honest with you.

I haven’t a clue what’s going to happen.

This team is unpredictable. It’s still in the pennant race despite all the reasons you can come up with saying it shouldn’t be. I know its’ easy to get down on the Tigers, and the past 2 or 3 weeks, it’s gotten even easier. And yet, there’s absolutely no reason they should be where they are, right?

It they keep losing, I wouldn’t be surprised. If they start winning, I wouldn’t be that surprised either.

Some of the actions taken by management and Jim Leyland sort of sound of desperation — It is Cameron Maybin’s second year in pro ball and they start him in left field in Yankee Stadium, playing Ryan Raburn at third base because Brandon Inge is stumbling; and all this talk about trading for Jack Wilson!  –  but at least they are sometimes proactive.

And yet, they need to take another look at replacing Yorman Bazardo in the bullpen, or maybe replacing Jason Grilli with, well, anything. Tough thought in a pennant race, but something has to be done when the experienced pitcher keeps failing.

If Jair Jurrjens shows his debut against the Indians last week was not a fluke, if Zumaya pitches well enough so that the setup role is secure and the rest of the pitchers are bumped into their proper role, if Bonderman looks more like what we’ve come to expect during his career, not just the last month of it, Detroit may be well on its way toward being fine. But if nothing changes soon, the Tigers will be watching October from the sidelines and hoping for a healthier 2008. I just don’t know yet.

Me, I would say expect not to make the playoffs, but don’t be surprised if the Tigers do. They are frustratingly close to going either direction, and they keep walking the tight rope.

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This anonymous comment deserves further look:

What I’m afraid the reality might be is that this is the beginning of the end.

Yeah, I said it…it feels like they’re on the brink of something; either turning this thing around or going into the tank for good this year…would anyone be surprised to see them 5 games out of it by the end of August and clinging to hopes of a wild card berth?

This young tiger pitching staff looks tired and I don’t know how that gets turned around….the next couple weeks will show what Grampa Leyland and the boys are really made of.

I bring that out not to disagree with it, but rather, because it’s an idea worth exploring a bit more. I first put forth the similar thought several days ago, writing July 29

I know that all teams go through slumps. I told myself I wouldn’t worry. But after the past three series and given the injury problems and the way the pitching staff has been throwing lately, I am at least moving in the direction of the panic button. I think this is a real crisis, not a made-up one.

So, is it a slump or is it real?

Keeping in mind the health of the pitching staff has been shaky during some of those months, that’s pretty consistently average tossing there. And while the Tigers get back two setup men this month, they just lost two starters to health problems. There is little reason for me to believe the Tigers are going to be all that much better than those numbers the rest of the season.

Then I look at the splits by month for the three starters, April through current.

Robertson: 2.43, 6.12, 5.17, 11.81, 4.50 (1 start)

Bonderman: 3.69, 2.66, 4.95, 5.31, 1 awful August start

Verlander: 2.79, 3.92, 2.65, 4.50

I said three starters because Miller has pitched only a couple of months and has hopefully reached his innings ceiling for the year as a starter. And the fifth spot has included Chad Durbin, Kenny Rogers and some spot starters.

What I’m saying is this: the starting pitching is average at best, and it’s consistently moving in the wrong direction. The bullpen, lord knows, is just not that good.

On the other hand, we have seen the team put some decent stretches together, as recently as July. Detroit swept the Minnesota Twins with three one-run victories. And yet in the same month, the team allowed 10+ runs to the Angels three straight games. Grasping hold of one side or the other is folly.

This pitching staff is about as good as its numbers would indicate, no better. Hopefully no worse.

It’s no new information that the hitting has carried the team. For awhile, the Tigers couldn’t win a game where the offense scored less than six runs. They got over that slump, fortunately, because I doubt any offense could keep up for an entire season the pace the Tigers bats set.

Since then, we have seen some older players slow down. Heck, the younger players, too. Magglio Ordonez fell off his extra-base hit power, but he’s keeping his average up at least. Gary Sheffield is hobbled by shoulder problems. Carlos Guillen had a pretty bad July. Hopefully that is just an anomaly. Marcus Thames went on the DL with a hamstring injury. A guy who can’t hit the ball — Craig Monroe — is getting regular playing time over Ryan Raburn.

I’m a bit hearkened by the fact August’s numbers look that bad, because there’s no way this team is as bad as a .650 OPS would indicate. I suspect the batting situation will most closely resemble July moving forward, but that depends on getting Monroe out of the lineup, Sheffield healthy and Thames back.

Conclusion

Obviously, the Tigers aren’t this bad. No one should expect them to continue a 2-8 pace going forward. This Tigers team is not the team of August and late July. On the other hand, I see no reason to believe it’s a .600 team going forward either. .550 maybe, .500 maybe.

Heading into this season, I feared that every year an aging team like this, and that’s what they are — the bulk of the offense comes from aging, injury prone players — stumbles. The Tigers didn’t take that stumble in the first half. Are they taking it in the second half? Quite possibly. Or maybe they’re just coming back to earth. In any case, it’s not hitting that’s the problem. Ironically, it’s the pitching.

Injuries to the pitching staff are going to make it really hard for the Tigers to make the playoffs. It would still have been the case if the Tigers made a trade, for what it’s worth. But maybe they should have made a stronger run, because there’s no guarantee the aging sluggers are going to put together a better 2008-09. But that’s for another debate.

If guys come back from the DL feeling pretty good, then the Tigers still might hold on. At this point, you really have to examine the Indians, Mariners, Yankees and maybe Twins closer to tell, because the Tigers have to outplay them the final two months of the year, not hurdle some statistical mark.

In any case, yes, there is reason to worry.

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Angels 10, Tigers 3

Same old story. Not gonna rehash much. Tigers were tied, 3-3, after seven innings (actually, they led 3-2 when starter Andrew Miller finished his day). The bullpen trio of Jason Grilli, Tim Byrdak and Jose Capellan combined to give up 7 runs. In one inning. 7 runs. In one inning. 7 RUNS! IN ONE INNING!

So rather than go on and on and on writing the same recap every time the Tigers lose, I thought I’d branch off in another direction that may be more useful:

Who should be allowed to wear the Olde English D.  I’m limiting that discussion to, what else, the bullpen today.

Todd Jones can wear The D. He’s not always the most fun. He’s not really the most skilled. And possibly he has the worst “stuff” on the pitching staff. And yet, hey, Jones has certainly earned his right to the D, on a personal level you have to root for him, and he reliably gets the job done successfully.

Macay McBride can wear the D. I’m not sure why, really. But he can. His stats say maybe fate will catch up to him, but I say he’s a youngster who should remain in Detroit.

Bobby Seay can be somebody’s Tiger, but only as a lefty-one-out-guy.

From the injury brigade, I will allow Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya to strap on their navy blue stirrups in August when they both come off the disabled list.

So that leaves us with two more to fill out the seven-member bullpen. Probably a long reliever and another right-handed strikeout option. For the long relief, I take Chad Durbin. He’s struggled a bit recently, but I’m not asking him to be the setup man. I’m asking him to pitch in the sixth inning — or earlier.

And the final guy who can wear the D? I don’t know yet. He’s not on the team. Zach Miner can return to the minors and work on attacking the strike zone. Jason Grilli can, well, I don’t care. I’m sick of seeing him pitch. Tim Byrdak seems like he’s not the Tim Byrdak of earlier this season. Maybe he’s reverted to the Tim Byrdak of the rest of his career or maybe he’s not healthy. But right now, he loses out to McBride and Seay.

So, we just have to wait and hope Dave Dombrowski finds the final piece of the bullpen puzzle. And that Nando and Zoomer are healthy in about two weeks time. I feel confident the bullpen can be acceptably good for the stretch run, no matter how bad it actually is right now.

Oh, and a hat-tip to Ian for his photojournalism thus far, telling the story with pictures perfectly.

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Just a few quotes from Jim Leyland lately show he’s as sick of bad play as the rest of us, and (I hope) he’s not going to take it any more. He’s pretty much telling guys they will produce or they’ll finish out the year in Toledo.

On Fernando Rodney’s return:

“He’s going to have to pitch good,” said Leyland before Wednesday’s game with the White Sox. “I want that in bold print. He’s not just going down there and going to come back when he wants to come back. He’s going to have to go down there and show that he can pitch and show that he is healthy. That’s what he’s going to do and that is what the rest of the guys are going to do around here.

“We’re going to run the thing. He’s not going down there on some kind of vacation to say, ‘OK, I’m fine,’ after one outing. He’s going to show us that he’s healthy and can pitch back-to-back. Period. That’s the end of the story.” (Tigers.com, hat-tip Ian)

On pitchers walking too many batters:

“If you can’t throw strikes up here, you can’t pitch up here,” Leyland said.

“You’ve got to change, or we’ll look elsewhere.

“If you’re picking and picking because you’re afraid of a bat, you might as well go home.” (Detroit News)

FYI: Jason Grilli leads the bullpen with 19 walks. (Chad Durbin has more but served as a starer). But Tim Byrdak has the highest walk rate, and Zach Miner’s not too far behind him.

I suspect Miner is the one Leyland put on notice, which makes sense, even if you don’t like Grilli much.

Leyland claims he’s happy with his bullpen and expects no trade deadline moves, but I don’t even begin to buy that one.

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Two important things occurred recently down on the farm. The first, a Tigers short-season A baller threw a perfect game Sunday. Not exactly a prospect at age 23, Guillermo Moscoso pitched just the second in NY-Penn League history. The other exciting news? Matt talked about some exciting prospects at Take 75 North. I’m going to say up front, half the six names were new to me, so go check it out.

Toledo third baseman Mike Hessman, meanwhile, has 27 homers and a Tigers.com article to his credit.

Grandy honored, honored again

Most everyone’s favorite Tiger had a few honors this week. First, he was the American League player of the week for his great time in Seattle. He went 8-for-16 with a homer, triple, double, double and stolen base. He will also join a forum to talk about Jackie Robinson 60 years after Robinson broke the color barrier.

The free event, which is open to the public, will take place on July 21 at noon ET at the Anderson Theater, located within the Henry Ford Museum. Tickets are available the day of the event beginning at 9 a.m. in the museum’s IMAX lobby. The program is scheduled to last two hours.

Flies and grounders

No, it’s not a new header. It’s an interesting article at The Hardball Times about what makes them occur.

Mike Rabelo dinged up

Everyone’s favorite backup catcher had to leave a second game in a row with an injury. He’s not pleased. The Tigers aren’t sure (or saying) what is up. Tom Gage is worried. His blog isn’t easy to link to, so i”ll republish:

His exit wasn’t caused by another cramp, as might have been reported during the game. He felt pain in his left calf and was favoring the leg as he walked to the team bus after the game - he’ll get treatment on the off day, but he sounded concerned. He also sounded frustrated because he feels it’s his job to make sure Pudge gets a day off and the last two times Rabelo has started, he’s had to come out early (a cramp and now this).

(Hat tip Ian)

Bunt Singles

• I do believe the Tigers bullpen is better now. With all the personnel changes, it seems to be clicking. I don’t know who the first will be to head out when Fernando Rodney is healthy, Jose Capellan maybe?, but it’s going to be a tougher decision that you would think.
• That’s definitely a good sign. And like I said in the radio interview, the Tigers starting pitching ERA is second in the AL and overall the Tigers are fifth in the AL. In the past couple of weeks, it’s hard to recall the pen having a particularly bad game. Yah, the 3 runs by Zach Miner were annoying. But for the most part, I’m happy. Still like to be happier.
• Ian updated his blog to answer his own questions.
• Woulid the Tigers be on an even more (team) record-setting pacefor run scoring right now if Marcus Thames had been starting in left field or first base more often? Seriously, it’s near impossible to figure out why Thames doesn’t have more playing time than he does. Of course, when you look at his overall numbers, they’re not impressive. You wonder how a guy with 11 HR in 148 at bats has an OPS in the 500s… but he always seems to be more consistent with more playing time.
• Who knows. Just give more Thames.
• The Freep looked at trade possibilities.
• Like I’ve been saying, I don’t really think the Tigers will trade for a big name closer. Mostly because we’re not looking to replace Todd Jones. He’s going to close. So a lot of closers won’t want to come here, whether or not they have a choice. That and GMs will ask the world and with so many teams in contention, probably get it. I don’t see the Tigers giving up Cameron Maybin. Andrew Miller is a major leaguer now. Maybe Dallas Trahern and Jair Jurrgens can get a quality setup man though.
• I like pitching depth as much as the next guy, but with the young starters Detroit has and with hopefully signing Rick Porcello, the awesome first round draftee… yeah, I’d give up pitching prospects for the right relief right now.

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My appearance on WTKG’s Bennie and Jeff’s Sports Extra on AM 1230 in Grand Rapids went pretty well. In retrospect, I guess I should have picked on Zach Miner instead! … but you’ll hear what I mean. They introduce me about 2 minutes in. Enjoy! Let me know how I did my first time doing radio.

 

 MAT on WTKG (courtesy WTKG): Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

As a backup in case I messed up, I’ve uploaded the file here.

*huge hat tip The Detroit Tigers Podcast’s Mike. His program works well, so I downloaded a copy!*

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I like Baseball Prospectus, but sometimes it says the darndest things that make me go “Wah?” Joe Sheehan today, (free), writing about who will win the AL Central:

As I see it, the Tigers have caught a lot of breaks in the first half.

True. He left out the word “bad,” however.

They don’t have any offensive depth at all, so they need to keep the regulars on the field as much as possible. With a roster filled with aging players with injury histories, they’ve been fortunate to have their starting lineup play as many games together as possible.

Yeah, he’s right there. That level of production might not continue. So Joe takes Cleveland. (I have a feeling this Maggs injury watch will continue until he retires no matter how healthy his knee seems to be. I don’t see the deal about Sheffield. The rest, I agree).

What Joe doesn’t say is a single word about the fact 19 pitchers have spent time in The D this season due to injury problems. Or that both setup men, thus far injured much of the season, hope to be healthy in August. Or that Kenny Rogers was out until late June after having a blood clot removed. His replacement did fine in his stead, and then moved into the bullpen. Or that the usually pretty productive Nate Robertson had a heck of a slow first half. Yeah, those are definitely breaks.

Maybe in the second half, they break even.

But in the second half, I’d rather have good pitching, anyway.

By the way, Joe takes the Yankees to win the wildcard….

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