The Tigers are 41-40 at the midway mark, and that’s a good thing. Anywho who predicted the Tigers would have that record midway through the season would probably have been laughed at. Anyone who predicted that record and added “And Tigers fans will be happy after the 81st game” would have been caused a laughing fit. And yet, here we are. The Tigers are 41-40, and that’s a good thing.

OK, so why is 41-40 a good thing?

We all know the team stumbled hard and fell flat on its face to start the year. That made their hopes of making the playoffs non-existant in probably pretty much anyone’s minds but their own. Fortunately for them, no one ran away with thd division. They rallied together — and whether you believe in coincidence or not might determine whether you agree with the statement to follow — after Jeremy Bonderman was lost for the season. They were 24-36 when he complained of a tired arm. He had surgery for a blood clot, and was thought to be lost for the year.  It was like a switch was turned. Fight or flight. The Tigers decided to fight and they’re 17-4 since that day we thought the season ended.

Obviously, you want have to nod to the Tigers’ (and American League’s) domination over the National League somewhat. But you also have to look at how the makeup of the team has changed and how they’ve played on field to fully explain it.

What has changed since that June 7?

The makeup of the team has improved, as some younger athletic players were cycled into an older roster, and some valuable players have returned from injury. On June 7, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were working on rehabbing against live batters. Gary Sheffield was resting two sore shoulders and a sore oblique. Those three have come back, not without their hiccups. But they’ve each contributed in wins already as they get back to major league baseball speed. Having his setup men in place gives Jim Leyland more of an opportunity to run the bullpen the way he’d like, which should prove quite valuable. Gary Sheffield’s return has spoken for itself. Marcus Thames saw his playing time increase, and responded by ripping off a string of eight hits for home runs. Younger players, who you might not want to start ever day but you need to mix into your lineup card, Michael Hollimon, Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas have found their way into the mix.

The second thing, somewhat related, is the Tigers have looked a lot more comfortable in the field. Miguel Cabrera is turning doubleplays. He’s not perfect at first, but he’s getting to quite a few balls and he’s looking quite comfortable at first base. Carlos Guillen is enjoying his time at third. It may not be shortstop, his favorite position, but he has adapted to the differences and looks much better. He seems to be making a lot more of his throws to first than he did at short. His arm frequently seemed to et him in trouble at short, whether he was rushing or what, I don’t know.

The third, the pitchers have settled in. I don’t know why the entire starting rotation stunk for two months. It really makes no sense. It had to be related, somewhat, to the defense. But they just weren’t particularly good. For most of June, it seems like nearly every day is another quality start. Pitching wins. Period. Before, Armando Galarraga was the only Tigers pitcher you felt like you could trust on the mound, and he was an unproven rookie with nothing in his background that particularly called for success. And now? I expect 3 or 4 quality starts per trip through the rotation.

And a minor additions: Curtis Granderson getting back to the Grandy who can hit the ball helped immensely.

So can they keep it up?

17-4? Well no. But the Twins and White Sox aren’t going to keep up their insane winning percentages either. But this team, all around, is much better. It’s not a fluke that they’re winning. They are actually a good team, like everyone figured they would be. They’re just finally playing like it.

Best surprises?

Freddy Dolsi looking like a guy who wants to be the Tigers’ closer in 2009 after starting off as the closer in High-A Lakeland. He’s become a valuable piece of the puzzle and gives the Tigers some flexibility in future seasons. Obviously Galarraga came out of no where.

Worst surprise?

You gotta go with Miguel Cabrera’s being slower to adjust to the A.L. and looking a lot closer to “slightly above average first baseman” than “guy worth $20M a season.” Fortunately he seems to be coming around some recently.

What concerns are there in the second half?

To me, I see two or three: Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and whether Rodney and Zumaya stay healthy. Galarraga somehow remains one of the most effective pitchers on the team — heck probably in the A.L. His ERA of 3.32 is fantastic. His WHIP of 1.11 and K:BB ratio of 52:29 are both signs that he might be able to continue pitching effectively all year and finish around 15 wins. But I don’t think anyone expects that. Same case with Eddie Bonine, the current “last” starter. He’s only pitched a few games in the majors. His WHIP is 1.08 but he’s not missing a lot of bats, so that’s a definte concern. And then Rodney and Zumaya is just a general precaution. Their careers are both riddled with injuries.

Predictions?

The A.L. Central, as the teams are comprised today, is going to be close. The Tigers have so many injuries and some depth worries. The White Sox are good but I don’t know how Carlos Quentin is going to finish the season at his home run pace given his track record. The Twins are great. I think by August the three teams are within three games of each other.

The trade deadline will be interesting given the Tigers don’t have much to work with if they want to add someone. I don’t think they should be active myself, but we can review that late in July.

Detroit has the talent and is still in position to win the division. Whether they will after their awful start, we’ll just have to watch and see.

Bonus prediction: All-Stars?

Ordonez but he won’t play. Placido Polanco. (Maybe… maybe … Miguel Cabrera based on his name). That’s it. I don’t think Galarraga makes it, despite his great numbers.

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At The News, Wojo came out with his list of most important Tigers for the club to have a shot at the World Series. With some columnists, this sort of list could have been a wreck. But I thought Wojo had a pretty good theme guiding him — less emphasis on repeating a typical season from a star player and more emphasis on the player not struggling — and a fairly respectable list to show for it. So I’ll respond with mine.

5. Gary Sheffield — If you look back at last season, you’ll see how important Sheffield was. When he was injured, the Tigers slid from first place to missing the playoffs. It can’t all be put on Sheffield’s then-achey shoulder, but that was one of the reasons. Due to the addition of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria — and the addition of Jacque Jones doesn’t hurt either — the importance of Sheffield having a successful season isn’t huge. But for the Tigers hitting to make up for any pitching problems, he’s going to have to be healthy and productive in every month of the season. Fortunately, his shoulder seems fine.

4. Dontrelle Willis – Popular to contrary opinion, starting pitching in Detroit has as many questions as relief pitching. For the Tigers to contend, Willis is going to have to be better than he has been the past two years. And, oh yeah, now he’s facing American League hitters. So Willis is the unknown quantity in the Tigers (worrysome?) starting rotation. We know Justin Verlander is a safe bet and Cy Young hopeful. We know Jeremy Bonderman, when healthy, is going to give you a chance to win most days on the mound. With the improved offense, this might be closer to every day he’s on the mound. And we’re pretty sure Nate Robertson is going to bounce back, not as good as 2006 but not as bad as 2006. (Well, I think so anyway.) But that leaves us two people: the newcomer and the old man. If the newcomer can throw strikes and pitch more relaxed, maybe he can get closer to being the guy he was two years ago who was second in Cy Young voting as a 23-year-old. If not, more pressure is put on the bullpen not to blow leads the other four days.

3. Edgar Renteria – It’s not an accident two of the national leaguers are back-to-back on my list. The Tigers went out on a limb, trading young starter Jair Jurrjens (and utilityman Omar Infante) to the Braves for Renteria. The move allowed them to move Carlos Guillen to first base, vastly improving the weakness at that corner while decreasing the defensive mistakes at shortstop and hopefully preserving the career a guy with an expensive contract. But Renteria has to fulfill his part of the bargain. His last stop in the American League, with Boston, didn’t go well at all. And he may be a former gold glover, but the important word is former. How big a step above Guillen is he defensively? We’ll have to see.

2. Kenny Rogers – He’s 63 43. He’s coming off not just one, but two injuries last season that took him out of sizable portions of the season. The Professor started just 11 games last year, which was worrysome, but acceptable, because we had a slew of pitching prospects. With so many trades, that’s no longer the case. If he can’t pitch every five days, then … wait a minute, who is the sixth starter these days? Oh yeah, we don’t really know. But we can make a pretty fair guess it’s going to be a sizeable step down. Rogers doesn’t have to be an All-Star. But he does have to be healthy from April to October because the dropoff quite concerns me.

1. To Be Determined – Is it cheating to only name four players? I was trying to come up with a reliever for the list, as the bullpen is a confusing mess. Well, that’s what I went with. The most important Tiger is somewhere in the bullpen. He might have a familiar name. He might not. But fact is, he has to step up his game and become a reliable setup man, or seventh inning fireman, because with Fernando Rodney’s tendinitis and — a theme is appearing — sore shoulder, and with Joel Zumaya’s freak injuries and — theme! — repaired shoulder, there’s a gaping late-inning hole and we don’t know who is going to step into it.

If anyone.

If not, the Tigers are going to have a great season, but it might not end on the the happy note we — and they — expect.

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We know as the Tigers go through Spring Training there aren’t many battles to keep an eye on. The starters are set. Maybe all but one bench spot is filled. So that leaves us relief pitching as the key spot to watch, analyze, guess and — oh yeah– CRINGE.

Not only is Todd Jones the closer (albeit we shouldn’t cringe, he is almost the most reliable in the pen for the past two years), Joel Zumaya out for (being optimistic) half the season and Fernando Rodney possibly starting out the season on the DL (or maybe not.)  But then Matt Mantei’s comeback may be falling short with shoulder pain. Francisco Cruceta can’t even make it into the U.S. So, the Tigers’ Achilles Heel is even more important to examine.

I provide some stats below from the most likely bullpen contenders after one run through the starting rotation. They’re simple. They’re limited. They’re nothing to make much of yet. But they’re what we have. (You’ll note I left out Rodney and Jones, because as long as they’re healthy, they’re sure things. I’m pretty sure Jason Grilli and Bobby Seay are sure things, too, but I left them in).

Reliever glance

My best guess looks like this:

Sure things: Todd Jones (C, R), Bobby Seay (LOOGY), Jason Grilli (R)
Sure thing but possibly on the DL: Fernando Rodney (SU, R)
Likely things: Tim Byrdak (L), Zach Miner (R)

So that leaves two relievers coming north from the rest of the bunch, and one possibly going to Toledo if Rodney is OK.

Just to throw out a guess, Denny Bautista sounds like he’s looked well in camp and goes north. Sounds like Leyland doesn’t think Cruceta has enough time to loosen up and make the team, so I’m going to go with Yorman Bazardo as the possible candidate. I don’t really have much to base this on, but I thought he did OK last season in his limited appearances.

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I recently received the comment from Brian of Spring Training 08, “Man, I would not want to face that lineup as a lefty.”

Why’s that? Because most of the Tigers hitters are pretty fearsome righties. Right-handed hitters tend to see left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers. A glance at the player cards at Baseball Prospectus confirms this. Most of the Tigers lineup does better against left-handed pitching — the obvious exceptions being Curtis Granderson and Jacque Jones, both lefties. Carlos Guillen also tends to be slightly better against righties.

Managers would probably prefer to have a few more lefties than two (and switch-hitting Carlos Guillen). But I had a hunch managers would probably not complain all that much with the success the Tigers’ hitters have had against right-handed pitchers, so I looked at the 3-year totals for the regular lineup (using ESPN.com’s stats) and conclude: you wouldn’t want to be a right-handed pitcher, either. You’re going to have more success than your lefty brothers of course, but here’s a glance at what you’re facing:

A few observations from this table:

• Wow.
• For many teams, you’d be happy if your lineup put up these numbers for season totals. To have this your “weak point” of RHBvs.RHP, that’s pretty good.
• It’s still good to remember this are numbers looking back, not looking forward, and Renteria, Jones and Cabrera did theirs in the weaker National League…
• But I’d much rather have Cabrera hit third against RHP. But then I’d also like him to hit third against LHP.

An observation off this table: Jacque Jones shouldn’t hit against lefties, so the Marcus Thames platoons make sense there.

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Dipping into Jason Beck’s mailbag for blogging inspiration, I give you my answers to questions asked of the Tigers MLB.com writer. And isn’t mailbag a weird term when you think about it…?

Inspired by Big Al’s blogging over Lynn Henning’s shoulder, I thought I’d blog through Jason Beck’s mailbag. Being a fan of Beck’s work, I’ve been reading his mailbag pretty religiously looking for any excuse to answer some questions, but he fielded a lot of questions that didn’t lend themselves to analysis — until today’s edition. So here I am. Like last time, I don’t intend to steal the content, so click the link to read Beck’s responses.

Does anyone foresee a timing problem with new shortstop Edgar Renteria and Placido Polanco? Polanco obviously is one of the better second baseman in the game, but he has gotten used to Carlos Guillen’s tendencies and vice versa. Will this just be a growing pain of training camp?

Me: I don’t forsee any problems. Yeah, there’s always a session where the players have to adapt to each other. But I think you can probably overrate the need for longtime chemistry between two middle infielders. It’s not like we saw big chemistry dropoffs when someone subbed as shortstop or second baseman.

What will be more interesting to watch is how Renteria and Miguel Cabrera work out the left side of the infield. There, players have to adapt to each other’s range. Who gets the ball in the middle? Is the third baseman going too far to get the shortstop’s ball? That sort of thing. Not only are the two left infielders new to the team, they’re new to each other and new to Comerica Park. So we’ll have to key our eyes on how that develops more than how the double-play duo works.

I cannot bear it anymore! I’m sick. I need to know what the mock lineup is. Is Miguel Cabrera going to hit third or fourth? Will Gary Sheffield hit fifth? Please help me before I go crazy. Thank you.

Sure, why not. Of course, as soon as the season is two weeks old, it wouldn’t look like this. And finally, the lefty-righty thing probably shouldn’t work out quite like, at least not against a right-handed pitcher. In fact, I don’t even think this lineup is idea. But I do think this is what Leyland might consider doing.

1. Granderson, CF (L)
2. Polanco, 2B (R)
3. Sheffield, DH (R)
4. Ordonez, RF (R)
5. Cabrera, 3B(R)
6. Guillen, 1B (S)
7. Renteria, SS (R)
8. Jones, LF (L)
9. Rodriguez, C (R)

What’s more ideal from an everyday standpoint? I like:

1. Granderson, CF (L)
2. Polanco, 2B (R)
3. Guillen, 1B (S)
4. Cabrera, 3B (R)
5. Ordonez, RF (R)
6. Sheffield DH (R)
7. Renteria SS (R)
8. Jones LF (L)
9. Rodriguez C (R)

It seems to me the Tigers should address the issue of where to draw the line between players playing hurt and putting them on the disabled list to get healthy. Last year, Jeremy Bonderman and Sheffield had long periods of poor production while trying to play hurt. This is detrimental to the team and cost them a number of wins. How can teams recognize a player is hurt earlier and know when it’s time to stick him on the DL because he’s not getting better? I respect that players want to tough it out and play though injuries, but at some point it’s not worth it.

The Bonderman thing should never have snuck through. I think the culture of the locker room has to be “Play through a minor injury, but if you’re a pitcher, open your damn mouth before you really hurt yourself.” Because it really is hard to figure out if a guy is hurt if he’s not telling you. They have got to feel it’s their duty to talk, so as not to hurt the team like Bonderman did. I hope it served as an example. Better safe than sorry.

So let me get this straight, Detroit is going to pay Nate Robertson $21.25 million over three years. Scott Kazmir, the ace for Tampa Bay, just agreed to a one-year deal for $3.785 million. Now, am I crazy, or is it crazy that Detroit is going to pay their fourth, maybe even fifth, starting pitcher almost $6 million-$7 million more than Tampa Bay’s ace? Robertson is coming off a sub-par season, and I think that money was a little too much for him. We should be focusing on locking up Cabrera long-term and even Justin Verlander before we shell out that much money for the end of the rotation.

As Beck pointed out, this situation isn’t the same. Kazmir is under club control — arbitration eligible. They weren’t buying him out of free agency or giving a multiyear contract. Basically, the Tigers were figuring they’d pay Robertson pretty close to what they’re paying for 08 and 09 anyway. They were probably figuring in 2010, it would be hard to sign a pitchre of Robertson’s ablity for any cheaper than the 10-11M or so he’ll make. So really, it made sense

As for Cabrera and Verlander, I’m sure the Tigers do want to add years to their stays in Detroit. I don’t think this deal precludes that, because as I said, they were going to pay that much for pitching anyway.

How many different positions can Brandon Inge really play without it being a setback for the team?

8.5. Seriously, I think he can fill in as pitcher if necessary. But to be effective, which I guess was the spirit of the question, I’m going to assume 7. I’m going to leave off shortstop and pitcher, although Inge was a shortstop in a former life and I’m sure could play shortstop now. I just think it’s best if they leave the shortstopping to a more experienced player. Anything else, I have faith he can play.

Jason, I love reading your mailbags. It puzzles me, however, that trivial questions like players’ uniform numbers or Spring Training reporting dates take up space in the column, when this information clearly is listed within the Tigers Web site. If they can’t find that information, they’re likely not going to be able to find their way back to the mailbag! Keep up the good work.

Kinda wondered that myself. That’s the reason I haven’t really been able to dip into his mailbag.

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Nate Robertson lives in metro Detroit. Yearround. By choice. This fact alone makes him popular with Michiganders, as I think we sort of have a chip on our shoulder and embrace anyone who chooses to be one of us.

Jon Paul Morosi reports today Robertson would like to sign a contract extention to remain a Tiger past 2009. He follows the lead of Dontrelle Willis, who said last week he’d like his contract extended past 2009 as well.

Robertson, a 30-year-old left-hander, was offered salary arbitration last week. So, even if he does not sign a long-term deal, Robertson will receive a raise over the $3.26 million he earned last season, when he went 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA in 30 starts. (Morosi)

This bit of timing brings up an interesting question, the same one the Tigers must answer with Willis’ request: Should the Tigers risk it to possibly save money? Robertson, like Willis, is coming off a bad year. Theorhetically anyway, that should keep their prices down (for the same reason the Tigers can’t trade Brandon Inge with that salary, he isn’t worth it!). So there should be a discount for a deal, especially since it gives the players countless guaranteed millions even though they pitched poorly. The players take the risk they are costing themselves money if they bounce back to past form. That brings up the opposite. The Tigers would like to save money and have a pair of solid lefties. But if either, or neither player bounces back, they’re in the Inge situation, paying too much for not enough production.

Robertson might be seen as a poster boy for ignoring win-loss record. In 2006, he led the MLB in tough-luck losses (7), which is when a player is tagged with the loss even though he had a quality start of 3 ER or fewer allowed in six innings. Looking at the past three years, he made quality starts in 50 percent (2005), 63 percent (2006) and 43 percent (2007) of his starts.

My guess is Robertson’s 2006 season is going to be peak of his career. He was 29. He’ll likely go downhill some as he ages. But I also believe 2007, during which he went on the DL for a tired arm, which he disputed, is not necessarily the Robertson we’re going to see either. Going forward, I expect he’ll be a solid No. 4 guy.

More important — and intriguing — to me is Willis. Due to his age (26) Willis is not exactly in the same situation as Robertson. We can expect Robertson will slide as he ages. But Willis, with much higher peak than Robertson, to date, has a chance to improve.. Maybe he can’t match 2005, when he finished as runner-up in the Cy Young with a 2.63 ERA with a K/9 only a few hundredths more than that of 2007. Willis also hadn’t had an ERA of more than 4.02 before last season, during which he says he pitched injured. But of the two, extending Willis seems safer, though that really depends on the dollar amounts.

To really decide on the two, we have to imagine the Tigers’ rotation in 2010-2011. Right now, it looks like the rotation could be, in order: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and two open spots. One spot could be taken by Rick Porcello in 2010, but almost definitely 2011. Given I can’t think of any up-and-coming pitchers left who could crack the rotation at No. 5, I’ll say signing Robertson could make some sense. That gives 3 power righties to go with two lefties. I could see it.

So to me, if Robertson accepts No. 4 money to stay through 2011, great. If his aims are too high, I’d take the wait-and-see approach. Maybe a prospect bubbles up (or is traded for). There could be something on the free agent market by then. But if not, keeping your No. 4/5 is quite often cheaper than signing a free agent version of the same. In any case, I see no reason to rush.

Ian seems to agree.

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Hey, it’s later.

In the 12 hours since Senator George Mitchell’s Report first come out, we’ve had a chance to hear from him, from MLB commissioner Bud Selig, from the Players’ Union, and from some people named in the report. A lot of people have come to the conclusion it’s a weak, useless report. Some claim it’s useful. Most agree, however, it’s important. I believe the Report must be reflected upon, and hope that it’s a call to make further progress to try to keep the sport clean.

I’ve heard ESPN and its lawyers hype the fact a lot of the peopled named in the report are based on circumstantial evidence given by a select few individuals facing prosecution and talking. That’s a good point.

At SI.com, Jon Donovon writes

When we’re considering the weight of evidence in the report, it’s probably smart to remember this: Mitchell is a former federal prosecutor and judge, and the people running these investigations — people who compelled the testimony of Bigbie, former Mets batboy Kirk Radomski and former Yankees and Blue Jays trainer Brian McNamee, all of whom gave the Mitchell report the weight that it has — are professionals. They know what constitutes solid evidence. They know what they’re doing.

Logically, that’s called appeal to authority. You expect because he’s a former prosecutor, you can trust it. He’s the authority there. But on the other hand, you really have to let the report speak for itself, and the parts I read were really mixed, some areas stronger than others.

But I’m not really going to address that. I’m more interested in the “What should happen” portion of the story. Bud Selig, in his press conference, said he’ll take it by a case-by-case basis and decide punishments. The counterargument “It wasn’t against the rules then” can’t really fly, as Mitchell says in the report (as David Pinto pointed out):

There is a widespread misconception that the use of steroids and other performance enhancing substances, such as human growth hormone, was not prohibited in Major League Baseball before the inclusion of the joint drug program in the 2002 Basic Agreement. In fact, as early as 1991 baseball’s drug policy expressly prohibited the use of “all illegal drugs and controlled substances, including steroids or prescription drugs for which the individual … does not have a prescription.”

So, there is reason to punish players. It’s allowed I’d say. But should Selig? Mitchell says no. I agree.

For one, the report singles out the wrongdoers who happened to deal with limited sources. What about the other ones? Are future reports coming out that tells us about a Midwest steroids kingpin? Second, the evidence is not always compelling. Sometimes (Brian Roberts, for example) it’s flat out weak. Third, some are retired. You only punish the ones who have the gall to keep playing or what?

I think the punishment has to come from the public. Whether or not Selig and MLB fine someone, or take a few weeks off their upcoming season, is ultimately a short event. Rogers Clemens and his accomplishments should never be looked upon the same again, if the allegations are true (He denies them). Same with Andy Pettitte. Same with Miguel Tejada, and all the former All-Stars. The late 90s-early 2000s era was already considered tainted. Now we have better proof of that. Ultimately, how we remember these players 20, 30, 40 years from now, means more than anything Selig can do to them during the 2008 season. If we choose to forgive and forget, that’s fine, too. But it’s up to baseball fans, not baseball, to dole out punishment.

For that reason, I am ultimately against putting an asterisks by Barry Bonds’ home run record, or Clemens’ Cy Young award, or Tejada’s MVP award, or anything else. If it really is important, we’ll remember. At this point, like not following up with punishments, I feel baseball has to let history be history. Nothing can be done to change the past. Don’t drag it on.

Rather, Baseball should hopefully learn from the report. Further testing year round, unannounced, would be a great start. I like the punishment levels as they are. But you want to make sure there’s no tipping of the hand to players or teams when they might be tested.

As for the report, I feel like it didn’t tell us much new or much of importance. It was too much like gossip with innuendo stepping forward where strong ties couldn’t be made. . I don’t know that it told us anything we didn’t know. And I don’t know if it gave any recommendations anyone with half a brain couldn’t have come up with. The hope, in having a report at all, is that it carries enough weight to force both baseball executives and the players to act.

On that point, we’ll have to see. Otherwise, it could be an ugly blemish for the careers of many players and tarring of the sport in general with little good coming of it yet our puerile curiosity served.

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This article is a few days old. Maybe it was just a throwaway line by Detroit A.P. sports editor Larry Lage. But I didn’t like it.

If Rogers re-signs with Detroit, it might be the last significant move the club makes in what already has been a busy offseason.

The last significant move? What does that even mean? The last player who costs any amount of money? The last player of any renown? The last player, period? In any of those cases, the Tigers would have a difficult road back to the playoffs, because it’s not enough. And let’s be frank here. While Bilfer reports the payroll is at $100M, if you’re going to spend that much money to get near the finish line, you may as well spend enough to cross it, too.

The bet in adding Rogers and calling it quits is that last year was an injury-plagued fluke. The reality is next year already has a key injury (Joel Zumaya), and the Tigers are bringing back a starting pitcher with a sore elbow (Jeremy Bonderman) already and could possibly resign a player with a sore elbow after major shoulder surgery (Rogers). This goes with an unknown fifth starter (Andrew Miller? Somebody else?) and a bullpen that didn’t get the job done last year. Sure, the Tigers can score runs (5.2+ according to a lineup projection done by D-Town using Bill James’ stats), but have they done enough to prevent the other team from scoring, too? I don’t think so.

I like Rogers. I like that Rogers fired his agent, Scott Boras, presumably so he could sign with Detroit. And I respect that Detroit doesn’t want to give him the shaft after that. Bilfer even found he’s worth about $7M and should be given additional money for making so many starts for the year.

But if the Tigers signed Rogers and maybe some minor league relief pitcher and called it quits? I just don’t see it as enough. Minnesota is probably worse. Chicago seems worse. Kansas City looks better. And Cleveland? Honestly I don’t know. I could see them coming back down a bit this year. But they seem to team to beat right now.

Detroit needs to do more to get back to the playoffs.

(I still have my eye on Kuroda but so do the Mariners)

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And with today’s game over, the season has ended. It didn’t really bother me until Mario Impemba pointed out the next broadcast would be in March. MARCH. That’s five months and countless feet of snow from now! This baseball season just went so fast. Even with the disappointing premature ending, it was a good one. Just a few memories.

• Magglio Ordonez won the batting title with a .363 average. WOW! Who’d have thunk it?
• Placido Polanco went the entire season without an error. While that may not be a good sabermetric measure of a season, it’s still quite a feat. Especially when you consider he hasn’t made an error since summer 2006. His range may not be perfect, but he’s a solid second baseman every day. I think he’ll get some Gold Glove consideration, just for the fact voters will see no errors and go ga-ga. But it’s still political.
• Curtis Granderson joining Willie Mays and Frank Schulte in the 20-20-20-20 club. Granderson is the only in the 23-23-23-23 club, Lee at Tiger Tales tells us. It’s just a statistical thing of course. Sorta fluky in nature, but yet, a show off a well rounded player. Definitely cool.
• I was trying to think of my favorite memory for the season. That’s pretty hard to do. FSN showed a few clips.
• The 3:30 a.m. walkoff might have been my favorite. That was just amazing because the game didn’t start for so late, then seemed like it may never end. Considering Detroit really needed a win against the Yankees, it was all the better.
• Justin Verlander’s no-hitter was probably my favorite, because other than the excitement of the playoffs in 2006, I’m not sure I could think of a more electrifying game. By the time Magglio made a sliding catch and Neifi Perez made an amazing no-hit saving play, it was just all the more improbable and awesome. It’s definitely a game I, and probably most others, won’t forget.
• I also remember Granderson’s catch over the fence to rob Boston. Detroit was on a roll and swept the Sox and looked like the best team in baseball. *wistful sigh.*

So there were plenty of good moments. Some great achievements. A lot of fun, some heartbreak. Everything that makes you love baseball. Too bad it ended a couple of weeks too soon. Over the next month, I’ll try to analyze a few things that went right and wrong and, interestingly enough, show how April pointed out how the season might end.

And now we bid a fond farewell to Sean Casey, who won’t be coming back. I think this is farewell for Kenny Rogers, but we don’t know yet. Pudge, I think we’ll see again, but it is possible he spent his last day in the D.

Update: Danny Knobler reports the Tigers won’t exercise the option on Pudge, meaning they’ll be looking for a catcher. Earlier today, I had an outlandish, tossaway theory about trading Cam Maybin for a catcher and signing an outfielder. Hmm. Maybe I’m not totally loony. Nah. I probably am. If true, the Tigers need a shortstop, catcher and left fielder, in that order of priority.
In the meantime, Go Cubbies!

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I really planned to address this question after the season was over. But with a blog posting at D-Town, a Detroit News article by Lynn Henning and reaction at the MotownSports forum, now seems as good as any time.

Economics up front

The Tigers have a $13 M club option for Pudge Rodriguez with a guaranteed $3M buyout. That’s money they owe him either way, so think of the cost of Pudge in 2008 as $10M, not $13M, so 10M is the figure I’ll use in the rest of the post. The question put forth by the News’ headline writer: “Is Pudge WORTH IT (sic)”? This is not just a baseball skills question.

• Are Pudge’s baseball skills worth it?

It seems to me, no. Catchers age hard, and many baseball people thought Pudge would see his baseball abilities decrease long before the fourth year of the contract.

Now, his defense is waning. His caught stealing rate is 26.2 percent, sixth among regular starters in the A.L. (”Regular starters” is my estimation. Mauer is not “qualified” but started 76 games. That seemed regular enough). The number of passed balls + wild pitches (I combine those because it’s up to the scorekeeper to decide who gets the blame, it’s up to the catcher to stop as many pitches as possible. Some wild pitches were obviously uncatchable, some I’ve observed I thought many catchers would corral). And he has the second most errors in the AL. However, his range factor is second best.

At the plate, Pudge has an OPS+ of 84 and a VORP of 8.5. His OPS+ number is compared to a baseline average of 100 (average) since 2004. He is 16% worse than it. His value above replacement being just 8.5 does not make me think he’s significantly all that good. He refuses to take a walk, so his avg/obp/slg is .274/.286/.417. You can see his splits yourself, but there’s no magic bullet in there that says his stats are lying to you.

Compared to others in MLB

To put this into perspective though, his defensive stats make him appear slightly worse than Cleveland’s Victor Martinez and about the same as NY’s Jorge Posada. Both are significantly better hitters. Posada has an OPS+ of 153. This season is a career high, however, I wouldn’t predict that into the future much. His VORP is 57.8.

Comparing costs, Jorge Posada (who is a free agent after this season) cost $12M. VMart, who is under club control still, cost $3.2M, a real bargain. Oh, and Boston’s Jason Varitek, better defensively than Pudge all around, cost $11M.

Compared to teammates

Last year, Vance Wilson has an OPS+ of 91 in 56 games. His defense did not make me think he sucked at it. And sabermetrically, saying a catcher makes a pitcher better is not based on stats. Mike Rabelo has an OPS+ of 76. (.263/.306/.358). Yes, Rabelo gets on base more often than Pudge, although his power is less right now.

Wilson’s Catcher ERA in 2006: 3.91. Pudge’s: 3.82). CERA may not be perfect, but in this case, it shows pitchers did well no matter who was the backstop. In 2007, Pudge’s ERA is 4.64 and Rabelo’s is 4.82. In both cases, Pudge was better. But I don’t see it as a significant difference.

Baseball conclusion

It seems to be, from a baseball dollars sense, Pudge’s value relative to his $10M cost is way, way less. He is not in Posada’s class. Not in VMart’s class. I’m not sure I’d want to put him in Varitek’s class. He’s hardly above his teammates. And Pudge is declining. And remember the direction we must continue to look is forward. Will Pudge be better than Rabelo and Wilson next season? Wilson is coming back from surgery on his elbow and probably can’t keep a starter’s workload. Most people don’t want to see Rabelo as an every day starter. And yet… Pudge is not significantly better. So how is he the one worth $10M?

This also helps answer the question of whether there are alternatives. Compared to the sunk cost contract of Wilson (in other words, Wilson is here either way next year, so he’s 0. Pudge is either going to cost 0 to not return or 10 to return), Pudge is definitely too costly. Compared to Mike Rabelo (who can return at likely little more than league minimum) Pudge is also way too costly.

On the free agent market, the cost of a name catcher would be several million dollars and multiple years. But, it’s my belief Pudge’s skills are declining such he should be compared to a backup, not a name starter. From that sense, I would not want to pay him $10M.

• Then what about intangibles?

The problem with intangibles lies in the word itself. It’s not tangible. It’s hard to quantify them. Some of the more intangible questions I thought of follow. I’ll give my opinions.

How much is Pudge’s leadership worth?

In a rudderless, young team, maybe something. On a team full of leaders (think: Carlos Guillen… think Jim Leyland), this seems not to be worth that much. Diminishing returns.

How much does Pudge make other teams think?

There might be some mystique to the future Hall of Famer. But there’s probably not much thought going on in the pitcher’s mind with runners on than “Throw balls, he’ll swing at bad pitches.” So I think this isn’t worth much either.

How much does Pudge make other players want to play in Detroit?

At some point in time, this was worth something. That point was 2005 and 2006 when Pudge was the star of an upstart club. Detroit was paying him more than his value, and recruitment ability was probably an intangible they paid for. Maybe now not everyone wants to play for the Tigers. But a club with some young stars, a sold out stadium, a no-hit pitcher, an MVP candidate… this is not significant value.

Will the loss of Pudge cause problems in the locker room?

Due to the above few questions, I think no. The Tigers look to be a perenniel postseason contender with some mature players. I doubt it’s going to cause a raucous if they don’t bring him back.

Conclusion: This doesn’t outweigh the cost above Pudge’s baseball worth.

• Do they owe Pudge anything?

The contract he was given following 2003 was above and beyond what he would have gotten. He earned a good amount of money, had four guaranteed years during a time there were injury fears. And he was able to cement his Hall of Fame credentials (as if they needed it!) by leading the club from the depths of 2003 to the World Series. It is not good business sense or fair to the other guys to reward him with an extension.

• Can the money be spent better elsewhere?

In baseball, the goal is to win games, obviously. But how do you win games? Limit runs. Score runs of your own. That’s what the Pythagorean theorem can predict a team’s record from runs scored and allowed. So the question to me is, can this $10M be better spent to maximize the difference between RS and RA? If either the cost of upgrading other positions was prohibitive or they didn’t need it, then maybe it’s worth it to pay Pudge.

However, the Tigers might need an outfielder. We don’t know if Cam Maybin is the answer next year to the LF problem. The Tigers probably need a starting pitcher, maybe two. The Tigers need a better first baseman. The Tigers could probably use some bullpen help (and must sign a closer or re-sign Todd Jones).

While an estimated $20M or s comes off the payrole from players who definitely aren’t coming back next season, I would say the $10M not given to Pudge would help in filling these needs.

• My conclusion

You can guess by now I don’t think Detroit should bring “the little Pudgy one,” as Rod Allen would call him, back with that extension. I was so thankful for when he signed. He is a major face of the organization. He helped make the Tigers who they are today. But the cost of the extension is far more than he would make on the free agent market, more than his worth and more than the cost of replacing most, if not all, of his lowly production on offense and defense.

I think they have to let him go.

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