Oakland 5, Detroit 4 (10 innings)

Tigers starter Virgil Vasquez made it through just four innings, allowing four runs. The bullpen made it through five more, allowing no runs and giving the bats a chance to get back in the game. And that they did, culminating in a game-tying two-out RBI single by Sean Casey in the ninth inning off Oakland closer Huston Street.

Unfortunately, Mike Piazza got a piece of a Joel Zumaya offering in the 10th and sent it down the left-field line. Timo Perez fielded it, hesitated, double clutched, and threw to second, allowing Piazza to slide in safely. Dan Johnson drove him in with a strike into right field.

Problems there: 1) why did Perez take so long to get the ball in? 2) Why didn’t Jim Leyland walk the lefty so set up a chance at a double-play? Two questionable decisions.

With the loss, the Tigers fell 5-1/2 games out of first place when the Indians scored six runs in an inning to beat the White Sox. (Fortunately, I guess) the Yankees and Mariners both lost, keeping Detroit within hunt of the wild card. Strangely, it was only about a week ago I thought the wild card was not a possibility and the team had to win the division, and now it’s the opposite. Make of that what you will.

A blown shot, but this team just keeps blowing chances. The pitching just isn’t good enough, and when it is, the batters fail to do their job. But it’s Sept. 1 and the Tigers still have something to play for, so we, as fans, should be appreciative of that after the past two decades or so.

I really planned to address this question after the season was over. But with a blog posting at D-Town, a Detroit News article by Lynn Henning and reaction at the MotownSports forum, now seems as good as any time.

Economics up front

The Tigers have a $13 M club option for Pudge Rodriguez with a guaranteed $3M buyout. That’s money they owe him either way, so think of the cost of Pudge in 2008 as $10M, not $13M, so 10M is the figure I’ll use in the rest of the post. The question put forth by the News’ headline writer: “Is Pudge WORTH IT (sic)”? This is not just a baseball skills question.

• Are Pudge’s baseball skills worth it?

It seems to me, no. Catchers age hard, and many baseball people thought Pudge would see his baseball abilities decrease long before the fourth year of the contract.

Now, his defense is waning. His caught stealing rate is 26.2 percent, sixth among regular starters in the A.L. (”Regular starters” is my estimation. Mauer is not “qualified” but started 76 games. That seemed regular enough). The number of passed balls + wild pitches (I combine those because it’s up to the scorekeeper to decide who gets the blame, it’s up to the catcher to stop as many pitches as possible. Some wild pitches were obviously uncatchable, some I’ve observed I thought many catchers would corral). And he has the second most errors in the AL. However, his range factor is second best.

At the plate, Pudge has an OPS+ of 84 and a VORP of 8.5. His OPS+ number is compared to a baseline average of 100 (average) since 2004. He is 16% worse than it. His value above replacement being just 8.5 does not make me think he’s significantly all that good. He refuses to take a walk, so his avg/obp/slg is .274/.286/.417. You can see his splits yourself, but there’s no magic bullet in there that says his stats are lying to you.

Compared to others in MLB

To put this into perspective though, his defensive stats make him appear slightly worse than Cleveland’s Victor Martinez and about the same as NY’s Jorge Posada. Both are significantly better hitters. Posada has an OPS+ of 153. This season is a career high, however, I wouldn’t predict that into the future much. His VORP is 57.8.

Comparing costs, Jorge Posada (who is a free agent after this season) cost $12M. VMart, who is under club control still, cost $3.2M, a real bargain. Oh, and Boston’s Jason Varitek, better defensively than Pudge all around, cost $11M.

Compared to teammates

Last year, Vance Wilson has an OPS+ of 91 in 56 games. His defense did not make me think he sucked at it. And sabermetrically, saying a catcher makes a pitcher better is not based on stats. Mike Rabelo has an OPS+ of 76. (.263/.306/.358). Yes, Rabelo gets on base more often than Pudge, although his power is less right now.

Wilson’s Catcher ERA in 2006: 3.91. Pudge’s: 3.82). CERA may not be perfect, but in this case, it shows pitchers did well no matter who was the backstop. In 2007, Pudge’s ERA is 4.64 and Rabelo’s is 4.82. In both cases, Pudge was better. But I don’t see it as a significant difference.

Baseball conclusion

It seems to be, from a baseball dollars sense, Pudge’s value relative to his $10M cost is way, way less. He is not in Posada’s class. Not in VMart’s class. I’m not sure I’d want to put him in Varitek’s class. He’s hardly above his teammates. And Pudge is declining. And remember the direction we must continue to look is forward. Will Pudge be better than Rabelo and Wilson next season? Wilson is coming back from surgery on his elbow and probably can’t keep a starter’s workload. Most people don’t want to see Rabelo as an every day starter. And yet… Pudge is not significantly better. So how is he the one worth $10M?

This also helps answer the question of whether there are alternatives. Compared to the sunk cost contract of Wilson (in other words, Wilson is here either way next year, so he’s 0. Pudge is either going to cost 0 to not return or 10 to return), Pudge is definitely too costly. Compared to Mike Rabelo (who can return at likely little more than league minimum) Pudge is also way too costly.

On the free agent market, the cost of a name catcher would be several million dollars and multiple years. But, it’s my belief Pudge’s skills are declining such he should be compared to a backup, not a name starter. From that sense, I would not want to pay him $10M.

• Then what about intangibles?

The problem with intangibles lies in the word itself. It’s not tangible. It’s hard to quantify them. Some of the more intangible questions I thought of follow. I’ll give my opinions.

How much is Pudge’s leadership worth?

In a rudderless, young team, maybe something. On a team full of leaders (think: Carlos Guillen… think Jim Leyland), this seems not to be worth that much. Diminishing returns.

How much does Pudge make other teams think?

There might be some mystique to the future Hall of Famer. But there’s probably not much thought going on in the pitcher’s mind with runners on than “Throw balls, he’ll swing at bad pitches.” So I think this isn’t worth much either.

How much does Pudge make other players want to play in Detroit?

At some point in time, this was worth something. That point was 2005 and 2006 when Pudge was the star of an upstart club. Detroit was paying him more than his value, and recruitment ability was probably an intangible they paid for. Maybe now not everyone wants to play for the Tigers. But a club with some young stars, a sold out stadium, a no-hit pitcher, an MVP candidate… this is not significant value.

Will the loss of Pudge cause problems in the locker room?

Due to the above few questions, I think no. The Tigers look to be a perenniel postseason contender with some mature players. I doubt it’s going to cause a raucous if they don’t bring him back.

Conclusion: This doesn’t outweigh the cost above Pudge’s baseball worth.

• Do they owe Pudge anything?

The contract he was given following 2003 was above and beyond what he would have gotten. He earned a good amount of money, had four guaranteed years during a time there were injury fears. And he was able to cement his Hall of Fame credentials (as if they needed it!) by leading the club from the depths of 2003 to the World Series. It is not good business sense or fair to the other guys to reward him with an extension.

• Can the money be spent better elsewhere?

In baseball, the goal is to win games, obviously. But how do you win games? Limit runs. Score runs of your own. That’s what the Pythagorean theorem can predict a team’s record from runs scored and allowed. So the question to me is, can this $10M be better spent to maximize the difference between RS and RA? If either the cost of upgrading other positions was prohibitive or they didn’t need it, then maybe it’s worth it to pay Pudge.

However, the Tigers might need an outfielder. We don’t know if Cam Maybin is the answer next year to the LF problem. The Tigers probably need a starting pitcher, maybe two. The Tigers need a better first baseman. The Tigers could probably use some bullpen help (and must sign a closer or re-sign Todd Jones).

While an estimated $20M or s comes off the payrole from players who definitely aren’t coming back next season, I would say the $10M not given to Pudge would help in filling these needs.

• My conclusion

You can guess by now I don’t think Detroit should bring “the little Pudgy one,” as Rod Allen would call him, back with that extension. I was so thankful for when he signed. He is a major face of the organization. He helped make the Tigers who they are today. But the cost of the extension is far more than he would make on the free agent market, more than his worth and more than the cost of replacing most, if not all, of his lowly production on offense and defense.

I think they have to let him go.

Detroit 6, Royals 1

Jeremy Bonderman survived the first inning. I was around for that part. At that point, I decided the Tigers won. Of course, there was a lot to be played, oh, eight more innings or so I guess. But with Bonderman, you just have to figure if he makes it through inning 1, he’ll make it through innings 2 through 7 as well. And that’s just what he did.

Having gone winless since mid-July, Bondo struck out three and pitched to six batters (27) more than the minimum 21 possible for seven innings of work. He walked none. Bonderman credits his wife for noticing he was nibbling at the strike zone and said he attacked it better. 63 strikes in 87 pitches. That sounds like a pretty accurate explanation, as far as the box score is concerned.

Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya teamed up for 1-2-3 eighth and ninth innings, respectively.

Curtis Granderson is one step closer to his quadruple-20 season, as he hit home run No. 18. So he needs 2 homers and three steals in the final month. I think he’ll get it. I hope Leyland gives him the chance to steal more. He’s been caught just once. A lot of that is smart planning on when to send him. But there’s a lot of hit and runs, too, so it’s possible he could have had more steals.  With such a rare milestone nearing, Leyland has to give him a shot to get it and frankly, the sooner he gets it out of the way, the better. So, Jim, let him steal in Oakland!! I don’t think it would hurt the team to let him run a bit more. And while the home runs aren’t guaranteed, I’m pretty certain he can get two of them.

Magglio Ordonez also had three hits to help maintian his batting average lead. Oh, and he homered.

So, while this season’s final month isn’t all peaches and cream to think about, those two players are chasing marks that make every game worth watching.

Cleveland beat Seattle. Tigers remain 4.5 behind the AL entral leaders, but are 3 games behind the Yankees in the wild card and two behind Seattle.

Busy day in Tigertown. Busy day for Mr. Knobler, the reporting star so far.

Muy rapido after Craig Monroe was sent to the Cubs for a player to be named later, AAA-Iowa pitcher Clay Rapada seems to be that guy, Knobler writes. Rapada may be called up after the AAA playoffs, in which Toledo will again play.

A relief pitcher with a good K9, good WHIP, decent rate of BB9, Rapada has an ERA in the 3s.

And now I really must get some work done…

That should be read in the voice of Charlie Brown, just as he whiffs at a football held by Lucy, because that’s how I’m starting to feel when I read about each game. I go into it thinking maybe the team won’t trick me into believing, then pull it all away as soon as the first pitch is thrown. And yet…

• Timo Perez isn’t starting in the outfield today.

This star of foot and bat is DHing and batting third today, Danny Knobler reports.

Well, gee. That makes me feel MUCH better.

• Miller was optioned to Lakeland

Knobler writes this is procedural, as Lakeland’s season ends first and he’ll be back up in September, possibly to relieve. Honestly, I wouldn’t have my feelings hurt if they shut him down for awhile. He’s in his first year of pro ball. The kids arm is probably cinquefoil by now.

• Virgil Vasquez will start Friday.

Originally, Durbin was announced as the starter. I’m not sure, I either didn’t buy it or didn’t like it, in any case, I never mentioned it. But he’s not starting now. He is needed in the bullpen after the poor penners had to pitch 8 innings due to Miller’s meltdown yesterday.

• September’s callups were announed. Pitchers Yorman Bazardo and Jose Capellan. Infielders Mike Hessman and Omar Infante are the four.

Chris Shelton,  you are the organization’s  first baseman of the future.  That’s what they told you right? Uhm. Yeah. Dude, I don’t know what you did to Jim Leyland. Hit on his daughter? Step on his dog’s tail? Buy him a carton of the wrong pack of cigs? Maybe you know. But you must have seriously pissed off Jim Leyland if a near-.400 OBP is not enough to get you a callup. Holy crap. Please, warn others what you did, because we can’t afford to lose another player to his curmudgeoness.

Actually, I’m starting to think Ryan Raburn must have done something, too, to see his playing time cut to zero despite a) playing good defense in the outfield, b) hitting the ball, c) with runners on base, and d) getting the callup first ahead of Perez.

Frankly, I don’t know what’s up with this team. I like the team, but I’m hating the decisions by the smoker more and more every day.

Reports are the Tigers completed the trade with St. Louis by taking former first-round pitcher Chris Lambert.

He was taken 19th overall and had a good year in A ball. Otherwise, the past two years, he has been stalled at AAA-Memphis with unremarkable stats. He’s only started three times this year, but had been a starter in the past. In AAA, he has a decent strikeout rate, nearly 9 K9. But that’s about it. A large amount of hits and walks gives him a WHIP of 1.86.

Pretty uninspiring. I guess Dave Dombrowski hopes a fresh start will help.

Given Mike Maroth has performed poorly for St. Louis, the trade looks like a wash.

Royals 5, Tigers 0

What, exactly, do you expect me to tell you? This is why I can’t take the Tigers playoff chances seriously. This and yesterday.

Star of the game: Timo Perez. Uhm… yeah.

Goat: Andrew Miller gave up 5 runs. Then  got his first out of the day. I knew his coming back from Toledo was a bad idea.  A rush job by an organization flailing for an answer to the pitching injuries and woes. Miller should not start again this season. I’m not sure if he should even relieve. I think he’s still hurt or just tired and needs to be rested.

And that’s about it. This game was disgusting.

I got nothin.

As The Hardball Times released an update of its zone ratings (definition), which is just one of several defensive metrics out there, I thought I’d look to see how some Tigers starters are doing. Just a quick primer, the stat measures how many balls a player gets to inside a defined area by their position. Further, higher number is better. It’s hard to put into perspective how much better the image of their defense looks, but this is just one way to glance and compare.

• 1st base, Sean Casey, near the bottom of the majors. Cleveland’s Casey Blake is about average, if you want to compare.
• 2nd base, Placido Polanco is in the upper 10 of the majors.
• 3rd base, Brandon Inge ranks seventh at third base.
• SS, Carlos Guillen is seventh from the bottom. Derek Jeter is nearly at the bottom. Make what you will of that one!
• OF, Curtis Granderson is second at CF, behind Ichiro; Magglio Ordonez, RF, middle to upper third ranking; and there’s no everyday left fielder to speak of.

Just from the perspective of what I observe, I think those rankings look pretty much on.

Also, Pudge Rodriguez has let by quite a few wild pitches and passed balls that he would have gotten to in past years. His percentage of runners caught stealing is half what it was last year — or the rest of his career.

Another ranking is for the team: defensive efficiency. That’s the number of batted balls turned into outs. If 8 batted balls are turned into outs, it’s .800. Average is about .700.

The Tigers were near the best in baseball in 2006. In 2007, they have .6995, which ranks them 19th.

From my perspective, this makes sense too. I think you can tell the defense isn’t as good. Guillen is making too many blunders at second short (oops). I’m not real happy with Casey’s play at first. Inge is good, but makes errors at third. And the outfield, outside of Granderson, is not very impressive. I think Magglio Ordonez is playing better defense, but it doesn’t strike me as a strong point of the team.

Conclusion: While we look at the pitchers and say they’re not doing as well this year — pretty clear that is true — they’re not getting as much help as they did last year either. The defense has to step up, too. Cam Maybin adjusting to left field faster would help this, but let’s remember the kid is 20 and learning a new position in the majors, even if it’s similar to his natural center field. So it’s pretty clear this is the defense dealt to the Tigers pitches this year. They’ll just have to make the best of it.

Royals 6, Tigers 3

I already discussed a key disagreement with Jim Leyland’s management here.

So here’s what happened. The Tigers had 16 hits. Four were doubles. Rather than translating into the winning six runs, that translated into the losing three. Let’s look further.

The 9-1-2-4 batters had a combined 12 hits. You’d think that would HAVE TO translate into more than three runs. But Timo Perez left on five runners from the No. 3 spot. Carlos Guillen, Pudge and Sean Casey all abandoned four runners from the 5-7 spots. No timely hitting. No runs. No win.

Nate Robertson gave up six runs. Three of those came on a two-out double with the base loaded. That basically spelled the beginning of the end. He gave up a home run the following inning and that was that.

The Indians won. The Mariners lost, at least. This is most certainly a frustrating start to the easy portion of the schedule.

If you’re looking for a bright spots on a day the Tigers fell 3-1/2 games out of first place, Placido Polanco had a three-hit day, as did Ramon Santiago. And Magglio Ordonez had a four-hit day, helping him keep the lead in batting average. And Jason Grilli did a nice job in the bullpen, going nearly four scoreless innings in relief of Robertson.

Bunt Singles:

• Curtis Granderson is featured in USA Today …er… today. Besides touching on the baseball aspect of Grandy’s career, the article also touches on a lot of the points that I think make him so popular among Tigers (and other baseball) fans.

Dear Mr. Dombrowski,

WHAT THE HECK WERE YOU THINKING BRINGING UP ANOTHER FRICKEN PEREZ?

Did you not realize that Jim Leyland would see the “Perez” on his jersey, mistake Timo Perez for Neifi, and immediately insert him into the lineup? Well, guess what, it happened. Not only that, but your old man manager thinks so much of the Perez “family” he batted hit in the No. 3 hole. And do you know what he did there? Well, as I write this, he’s 0-for-4. With a strikeout. And five runners stranded.

Now, I know this isn’t Leyland’s fault. Leyland has what we like to call around polite company “a problem.” He can’t help himself. He sees “Perez” on a jersey and loses all inhibitions. That’s why you, Mr. Dombrowski, must realize this ahead of time and call up, say, an infielder. Not named Perez. Or hell, I was wrong about putting Gary Sheffield on the disabled list. A hobbled Sheff taking up a roster spot beats a crappy Perez taking the No. 3 spot in the lineup any day.

Leyland had some mumble-jumbo for why he made the decision. Something about left-handers having a better OPS. I think Leyland tried to use statistics to slip the fact Perez is no good by you. Don’t believe him. Should you think I’m a lone wolf on this, check out here. And here. And here. And the folks commenting here.

Or I guess you could see here: his OPS+ is 76. That means, compared to the average baseball player, he sucks. The highest OPS+ he’s had since 2002 is 58. That means, compared to his career of sucking, he really sucks now. This is the player you called up, Mr. Dombrowski.

Please, undo this godawful decision before it’s too late. Soon he’ll be batting cleanup and playing center field.

Update: Perez doubled, making my point all the more worrisome! Leyland may feel rewarded, Neifi Timo went 1-5!