Halfway through the season: Tiger thoughts
posted in 2008 season, Analysis |The Tigers are 41-40 at the midway mark, and that’s a good thing. Anywho who predicted the Tigers would have that record midway through the season would probably have been laughed at. Anyone who predicted that record and added “And Tigers fans will be happy after the 81st game” would have been caused a laughing fit. And yet, here we are. The Tigers are 41-40, and that’s a good thing.
OK, so why is 41-40 a good thing?
We all know the team stumbled hard and fell flat on its face to start the year. That made their hopes of making the playoffs non-existant in probably pretty much anyone’s minds but their own. Fortunately for them, no one ran away with thd division. They rallied together — and whether you believe in coincidence or not might determine whether you agree with the statement to follow — after Jeremy Bonderman was lost for the season. They were 24-36 when he complained of a tired arm. He had surgery for a blood clot, and was thought to be lost for the year. It was like a switch was turned. Fight or flight. The Tigers decided to fight and they’re 17-4 since that day we thought the season ended.
Obviously, you want have to nod to the Tigers’ (and American League’s) domination over the National League somewhat. But you also have to look at how the makeup of the team has changed and how they’ve played on field to fully explain it.
What has changed since that June 7?
The makeup of the team has improved, as some younger athletic players were cycled into an older roster, and some valuable players have returned from injury. On June 7, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were working on rehabbing against live batters. Gary Sheffield was resting two sore shoulders and a sore oblique. Those three have come back, not without their hiccups. But they’ve each contributed in wins already as they get back to major league baseball speed. Having his setup men in place gives Jim Leyland more of an opportunity to run the bullpen the way he’d like, which should prove quite valuable. Gary Sheffield’s return has spoken for itself. Marcus Thames saw his playing time increase, and responded by ripping off a string of eight hits for home runs. Younger players, who you might not want to start ever day but you need to mix into your lineup card, Michael Hollimon, Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas have found their way into the mix.
The second thing, somewhat related, is the Tigers have looked a lot more comfortable in the field. Miguel Cabrera is turning doubleplays. He’s not perfect at first, but he’s getting to quite a few balls and he’s looking quite comfortable at first base. Carlos Guillen is enjoying his time at third. It may not be shortstop, his favorite position, but he has adapted to the differences and looks much better. He seems to be making a lot more of his throws to first than he did at short. His arm frequently seemed to et him in trouble at short, whether he was rushing or what, I don’t know.
The third, the pitchers have settled in. I don’t know why the entire starting rotation stunk for two months. It really makes no sense. It had to be related, somewhat, to the defense. But they just weren’t particularly good. For most of June, it seems like nearly every day is another quality start. Pitching wins. Period. Before, Armando Galarraga was the only Tigers pitcher you felt like you could trust on the mound, and he was an unproven rookie with nothing in his background that particularly called for success. And now? I expect 3 or 4 quality starts per trip through the rotation.
And a minor additions: Curtis Granderson getting back to the Grandy who can hit the ball helped immensely.
So can they keep it up?
17-4? Well no. But the Twins and White Sox aren’t going to keep up their insane winning percentages either. But this team, all around, is much better. It’s not a fluke that they’re winning. They are actually a good team, like everyone figured they would be. They’re just finally playing like it.
Best surprises?
Freddy Dolsi looking like a guy who wants to be the Tigers’ closer in 2009 after starting off as the closer in High-A Lakeland. He’s become a valuable piece of the puzzle and gives the Tigers some flexibility in future seasons. Obviously Galarraga came out of no where.
Worst surprise?
You gotta go with Miguel Cabrera’s being slower to adjust to the A.L. and looking a lot closer to “slightly above average first baseman” than “guy worth $20M a season.” Fortunately he seems to be coming around some recently.
What concerns are there in the second half?
To me, I see two or three: Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and whether Rodney and Zumaya stay healthy. Galarraga somehow remains one of the most effective pitchers on the team — heck probably in the A.L. His ERA of 3.32 is fantastic. His WHIP of 1.11 and K:BB ratio of 52:29 are both signs that he might be able to continue pitching effectively all year and finish around 15 wins. But I don’t think anyone expects that. Same case with Eddie Bonine, the current “last” starter. He’s only pitched a few games in the majors. His WHIP is 1.08 but he’s not missing a lot of bats, so that’s a definte concern. And then Rodney and Zumaya is just a general precaution. Their careers are both riddled with injuries.
Predictions?
The A.L. Central, as the teams are comprised today, is going to be close. The Tigers have so many injuries and some depth worries. The White Sox are good but I don’t know how Carlos Quentin is going to finish the season at his home run pace given his track record. The Twins are great. I think by August the three teams are within three games of each other.
The trade deadline will be interesting given the Tigers don’t have much to work with if they want to add someone. I don’t think they should be active myself, but we can review that late in July.
Detroit has the talent and is still in position to win the division. Whether they will after their awful start, we’ll just have to watch and see.
Bonus prediction: All-Stars?
Ordonez but he won’t play. Placido Polanco. (Maybe… maybe … Miguel Cabrera based on his name). That’s it. I don’t think Galarraga makes it, despite his great numbers.
Sphere It
My dream: Marcus Thames as an all-star.
CRAZY BUTT COME BACK NIGHT + PROSECCO = GOOD STUFF.
Good analysis and I agree with just about all of it.
The pitching will make or break this team. Fortunately, while a lot of guys are pitching well, unexpectedly, no one is pitching out of their minds. I definitely see no reason why Galarraga can’t keep up what he’s been doing. If Bonine falters, you go right down the list in the minors: Lopez, Bazardo, Vazquez, Tata, Miner if you have to. You don’t need greatness from the #5 starter.