27th May 2008

Questions and answer session

posted in 2008 season, Q&A |

First I’d like to thank Flying J, Big Al and Kyle J for answering my request for questions.

FlyingJ: How bad are the Tigs when Inge is catching? I can’t recall the Tigers winning with him backstopping. Does he have the ability to call a big league game?

me (with an updated answer):

Thanks Flying J.

I made the same mistake as you initially. I think I did it early this month actually. It came after Inge played catcher and the Tigers lost (as they did with him backstopping Sunday.) Well, it turns out, the Tigers won with him at catcher only three days earlier. As recently as Thursday, the Tigers won with Inge catching, while allowing just two runs. However, you are on to something.

Using Baseball-Reference PI, I was able to learn that Brandon Inge started 10 games at catcher and the Tigers have a record of 3-7 when he is playing. So a winning percentage of .300 compared to the .439 winning percentage (18-23) when Pudge starts.

Here’s another test: the catcher’s ERA. Basically, how’d the pitchers do when he was behind the plate. Inge’s is 6.84. Pudge’s is 4.44.

Some other fun stuff: The Tigers are above .500 at 11-9 when Inge starts at third base. And they’re 6-5 if he starts in center field. Now a word of caution: It’s possible he played third or center against weaker teams or pitchers. Without a subscription I can’t look up who the opponents were or the particular outcomes.

The temptation is definitely there to say Inge should start at third base more often and catcher less, but with the sample size I’m not sure if you particularly want to read too much into things quite yet. But would I feel more comfortable with Inge starting at third and the Tigers calling up a backup catcher? Probably.

Big Al has several questions. I’ll handle them one by one.

1. I know the Tigers are somewhat in a bind, with some big long-term contracts limiting their maneuverability. But if you were in charge, are there any specific roster moves you’d make right now?

Now, as in TODAY, I’d put Gary Sheffield on the disabled list due to his oblique. He seemed to be making a comeback recently and had eight hits in the previous four games. So I think any recent calls for him to go on the DL would ring hollow. (Calls earlier, in the month I certainly backed, because both his shoulders hurt.) But there’s enough dings adding up that two weeks off would probably be a good thing right now.

I’d also call up a backup catcher and send Ryan Raburn to Toledo. I don’t like Inge as the backup catcher, and Leyland is not using Raburn often enough to justify his being in Detroit. In a pinch, there are Tigers who can play other infield positions for a game and Raburn can be called back up. Otherwise, he just seems to be using up the roster spot and duplicating the efforts of other players. I’d rather see him get daily play in Toledo.

Fact of the matter is, this roster is not flexible. There’s really very little that can be done. They just have to do the jobs they’re over paid to do.

2. What about at the trade deadline?

I believe the Tigers we see on the field now are the Tigers we’re likely going to see for the rest of the season. So I suspect Detroit will be a seller at the trade deadline, not a buyer. (I’d be thrilled to be wrong.) So the move that needs to get done is sending Edgar Renteria to a team that needs a short stop, and bringing in return a major-league ready pitcher or catcher, or a higher ceiling, lower level prospect at the same positions.

I don’ know in particular what you’re going to get back for him. He’s not a superstar caliber player, so you’re not going to get the best prospect from an organization. But his contract is for this year with an option for next year, so I think that’s definitely the kind of contract a general manager hoping to make the playoffs is going to want. In addition, Renteria has the fifth-best OPS in the American League. It’s only .700, but the No. 1 is only .747. Renteria has the third-highest OPS in the A.L. with runners in scoring position (for shortstops with at least 25 plate appearances). Someone’s going to pay enough to make the deal palatable. Ultimately, trading for Renteria will be seen as a bad deal, but we didn’t know at the time the team would fall apart.

I don’t see any other moves the Tigers can make. Trading Carlos Guillen isn’t going to happen. Everyone else is either under performing too much with too much remaining contract, or they’re players the organization might want a little extra for (Jeremy Bonderman) or shouldn’t trade ever (Curtis Granderson). Notice I didn’t say that Bonderman shouldn’t be traded. The right ready-for-the-majors in 2009 pitcher might entice me but is anyone actually going to give that up? It’s a crap shoot for both GMs so I doubt it.

3. Would you make any changes in the coaching staff, and if so, when?

4. Would those changes include Leyland getting the ziggy?

I know I called for Leyland’s dismissal earlier this month. That came at a time Leyland acted like he was lost and clueless, and I think a manager in that position needs to be fired. I disagree with a lot of his strategic moves –many I find counter productive or just plain nuts– but I only buy dismissing a manager who is at the end of his rope. Leyland appeared to be in that place, but burst forth with renewed energy.

As far as coaches go, I don’t buy that, especially from an outsider’s view. You’re talking about hitters with resumes a mile long. If they’re slumping — especially the guys who were on the Tigers in 2006 and 2007 — I don’t buy that it’s Lloyd McClendon’s fault. They’re professionals at the top of their game. It’s not like it’s rookies he’s dealing with. If he’s not giving advice or not prepping hitters for the pitcher, that’s one thing. But I doubt that’s the case. I pin this one on the hitters.

If the pitchers started out slow, I think either they were not preparing themselves properly for the season, or the manager and pitching coach weren’t. Firing Chuck Hernandez now makes little sense. Reviewing his body of work after the season and seeing if anything he did contributed good or bad to the season makes more sense than any midseason changes.

So I see no reason to fire anyone at this time.

Kyle J: How concerned should we be that this season’s results to date will reduce Ilitch’s willingness to spend money on the Tigers in the future? As much as the $130 million payroll seems like a waste at this point, taking some risks on free agents is still a prerequisite to becoming a perennial contender (see: Red Sox, Boston).

I believe Ilitch will not be gun shy after this move. After all, he’s no rookie when it comes to professional sports ownership. Not every move the Red Wings made worked out either, but they just kept plugging away. You take the good and the bad. I think he’ll do the same with the Tigers. Just chalk it up as bad luck and move on.

I think if the Tigers fans continue supporting the team in a way that makes it financially feasible, Ilitch will not return to the dark ages. (Well, at this point, through 2010 or 2011, the Tigers are so locked into contracts he doesn’t really have a choice.) Although I do think the Tigers would probably be better off in the $100-110M payroll range rather than $140. That would force them to continue mixing youth in and probably help the team have a few more dollars to spend in other areas of the franchise.

But I think Ilitch knows what it takes to win and he’s going to continue to try to be the owner who brings a World Series trophy to the city.

Thanks for the questions, guys. Keep them coming!

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