Reaction to the Cabrera deal
posted in 2008 Spring Training |The deal to keep Miguel Cabrera in Detroit through 2015 and give him one of the largest contracts in MLB history is not yet official. But that doesn’t mean people will wait to start talking about it. Here’s a roundup from some of baseball’s thinks and fans alike.
Mitch Lichtman, one author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, reacted early on in the Baseball Musings comments.
Just because that is what he MIGHT get, does not mean he is WORTH that. Whether a signing was good or bad should be based on what a player is worth, NOT what he is perceived as being worth by other teams. If a player is overrated, based on what he would likely get as a FA, and a team signs him for that, or even less, then it just means that that team overrated the player also – and consequently it was NOT a good deal.
Cabrera is overrated because of his poor defense (even though, unlike a player like Jeter, it is well-known that his defense is poor), and the fact that he plays a slightly below neutral (to the left in the spectrum) defensive position, and for other unknown (to me) reasons. His WAR value is 3.5 to 4 wins. That ain’t worth 20 mil a year. More like 16-18.
At the Sabernomics blog, JC Bradbury, author of The Baseball Economist, loved it and said its’ the kind of deal smart teams make.
Cabrera will be only 25 in 2008 and he has posted OPS+ in the 150s for the past three years. Eight years is a long time to be tied down to a contract, and during that time league revenues and salaries will grow. At growth rate of ten percent—the historical growth rate of major league salaries—salaries will double in seven years. By locking in now to a modest $19 million per season ($21 million per season after his arbitration-eligible years) the Tigers are protecting themselves against future salary growth.
The Hardball Times had a roundtable, which Knuckle Curve’s Geoff Young participated in, as well as several other THT authors.
Geoff: Cabrera should still be in his prime (albeit toward the end of it) when this contract expires. His defense at third base and conditioning are potential concerns going forward, but that bat will play anywhere. I expect Cabrera to be an elite offensive performer for the next several years. A batting title or two isn’t out of the question, nor is an MVP Award or two. Assuming the market remains more or less what it is, I don’t see much, if any, downside here.
Be sure to read the others.
AOL Fanhouse’ Tom Fornelli — who published a limmerick by me about two weeks ago that I completely forgot to link to! — asks if the deal is too long.
If Miguel falls down a flight of stairs tomorrow and breaks his back in 5 places and can never play again, the Tigers are still going to have to pay him that $153 million. While Miguel certainly deserves the money he’s going to be getting, and he’s been healthy throughout his career, I’m still concerned about his weight.
If Miguel has trouble staying in shape at the age of 24, how can we expect he’s going to be able to do it at 28? 30? It’s possible that someday his weight will dramatically effect his ability to play third base, and it could lead to health problems down the road.
(I think we really have beaten this weight thing to a pulp by now. The man lost weight and has good clubhouse influences around him, let’s wait a year or two and see what happens, he’s not exactly Tubby McFatty anymore)
A Marlins blog, Fish @ Bat, says there is no way the Marlins could have — or should have — paid Cabrera that kind of money.
A Rangers blog, Lone Star Ball, thinks it was a good move by the Tigers. Commenters are mixed.
And there’s plenty more links to sort through at Ballhype.
I think it would have been safer to let the year go and see what he does before signing him to such a long deal. Even with him, there is no guarantee Detroit will make the series but they will be competitive for the next few years. I would have rather seen the money go to pitching.