Fantasy baseball look at the Tigers
posted in Random |(UPDATE: My article is up at Razzball, check it out and let me know what you think at either site).
I was recently asked to write a preview piece on the Tigers to run at Razzball. In the full article — I’ll link to it when it runs — I mostly looked at offseason moves and expectations with a fantasy glance at a couple Tigers hitters and pitchers. Well, I couldn’t stop there. So for anyone who waits until the final week before the season opener before their draft, I present this complete guide to drafting the Tigers.
I’m not going to claim any great fantasy pedigree or anything. I read Baseball Prospectus regularly, glance at some fantasy sites and tend to finish near the top — seldom (if ever) at the top — of my leagues. My assumption is a 10-team league. Adjust guys as need be depending on the actual size of yours.
Although the Tigers have a great team, I do not necessarily think it’s one chocked full of fantasy options. They do have a few guys you definitely want — Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Verlander, to name a few. But only Cabrera is a first rounder. Still, there are some Tigers who I think have been overlooked, so read on.
Catcher
Pudge Rodriguez — Due to his average and on-base percentage, I don’t view Pudge as a must-have fantasy starter anymore. He might hit a few more homers than his 11 last year and I wholeheartedly recommend him as a backup who could surprise. This Detroit lineup should give him RBI opportunities, though.
Dane Sardinha — I think Sardinha gets the backup role rather than Inge, but I could be wrong. He can’t hit.
Brandon Inge — Even if Inge is backup catcher it will take him awhile to gain eligibility under most systems. He can provide some pop on his bat but I don’t view him as a backup in most leagues.
First Base
Carlos Guillen — You want him as a shortstop.
Marcus Thames — Not enough playing time to matter for fantasy
Second Base
Placido Polanco — “Polly” is not a first or second tier second baseman, but on the right team, he can still be a starter, as he can get you average and runs, and he’s pretty consistent. He likely won’t reproduce his 2007 average (.341), but I do expect him to hit a bit above .300 with an OBP in the .375 range. Hitting second and getting on base, he’s going to score plenty of runs.
Third Base
Miguel Cabrera — First rounder. Nothing you don’t already know. Comerica is not the pitcher-friendly park it was in the past, not that it’s a matchbox by any means. But it shouldn’t scare you off. With the bullpen moved in on the left field side, I expect Cabrera will still have plenty of homers.
Brandon Inge — Don’t draft him. But it should be interesting to look in on his playing time and see if his average bounces back from being near the Mendoza line. He does have some power, though that was missing last year as well. He might gain some value if he gains middle infield eligibility.
Shortstop
Carlos Guillen — He’ll be a solid hitter, could score 100 runs and have 100 RBIs in this lineup, though the hitters behind him are weaker than the hitters in front of him, so I’d guess he’d have more RBIs. As a shortstop, I’d say he’s in the second or third tier. After everyone grabs their first round shortstops, you can wait a bit before picking him up. He’ll lack for steals, but otherwise be productive. If you’re afraid of injury risks, he’s third tier. But someone else will have grabbed him by then I’m sure.
Edgar Reneria — The actual Tigers starting shortstop. His transition to the American League is what everyone wants to know. But I don’t necessarily think he was a great starting shortstop option for your draft even in the national league. Certainly he’d made a decent backup.
Ramon Santiago — Can’t hit. No fantasy impact.
Outfield
Magglio Ordonez — Don’t hold your breath on a .360 average season again. But as the cleanup man in this Tigers lineup, he’s going to have plenty of RBI opportunities, plenty of runs scored, a nice average (.330?) and plenty of homers. I would not recommend him as your first outfielder to grab, but he’ll get you plenty of pretty much every stat but steals. (He went round four in both my Tigers-fan centric 8-team league and 10-team league, a bit high I’d estimate).
Curtis Granderson — The type of player you can really enjoy on your real-life team, he could be a bit frustrating for people who draft him too high in a fantasy league. The temptation is there after a 20+ steals, 20+ homers, 20+ doubles, 20+ triples year that put him in the same sentence as Willie Mays. And he is a solid all-around player. Just don’t let last year’s numbers cloud your judgment too much and take him as a No. 2 or early No. 3 OF. I’d take Arizona’s Chris Young first for a similar player. You might want to platoon him with a player who can hit lefties and only play him against righty pitching to get the most productivity.
Jacque Jones — No reason to bother drafting him
Marcus Thames — Ditto
Ryan Raburn — Same.
Utility/outfield
Gary Sheffield — Don’t let his shoulder surgery scare you. He was crushing the ball while achey even before he had the surgery. Late in the season, I think the pain was too much and his productivity dropped off. But post-surgery, he has all the bat speed he showed last year and apparently none of the pain. I’d also draft him as a second outfielder or early third.
Starting pitching
Justin Verlander — You can let other people take the top-line starting pitchers while you concentrate on hitting, then grab Verlander. He’ll get you anywhere from 17 to 20 wins. He doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d want for fantasy baseball, but his WHIP and ERA will be low.
Jeremy Bonderman — Tigers fans in my two drafts lost all faith in him, jaded that he isn’t able to turn into the Cy Young pitcher most people predicted for him at a younger age. Let me give you some advice: They are wrong. You may want to discount Bonderman’s draft position because he’s coming off a sore elbow last year (which made his totals last year worse than they should have been.) But he feels fine in camp. He worked out quite a bit in the offseason. The injury did not require surgery. And maybe, possibly, he’s added a changeup. (To be determined in regular season). What I see is 15+ wins, about 200 strikeouts and an ERA in the low 4s. He’s a solid choice.
Dontrelle Willis — I honestly don’t know what to expect. I’d say you might want to take him as a flyer very late in the draft and he could be a huge sleeper. At the very least he’ll get some wins (15) and strikeouts (150), which gives him some value. He’s walking too many in spring, which gives reason to worry, but watch him during the first month before deciding whether he’s worth keeping around for the season.
Kenny Rogers — Wouldn’t bother taking him
Nate Robertson — Ditto
Relief pitching
Todd Jones — He can hurt your ERA pretty quick and he won’t get strikeouts, but hey, everyone needs saves right?
Denny Bautista — And some people need holds. At this point, it appears Bautista can get a fair number of strikeouts to go with some holds. He appears set to make a comeback this year and live up to some of his potential. I don’t think he’s necessarily the best option, but he’s out there. And with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya injured and no real great options for closer internally, he may end up with some saves.
Bobby Seay — LOOGY, no point in owning him really. He had a nice ERA and decent K/9 last year, but not many holds to show for it.
Tim Byrdak — Ditto.
Jason Grilli — 7th, 8th inning relief, but not a fantasy option.
Zach Miner — Ditto. Long relief. Jim Leyland made some crazy comment about seeing him as a future closer, butI wouldn’t put much weight into it.
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