Comments on: A few lineup notes http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2008/02/25/a-few-lineup-notes/ Fri, 05 Sep 2008 07:37:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Kurt http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2008/02/25/a-few-lineup-notes/#comment-25688 Kurt Mon, 25 Feb 2008 20:33:12 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2008/02/25/a-few-lineup-notes/#comment-25688 The thing about PECOTA is, it's going to be right on sometimes, it's going to be wrong sometimes, and if we knew which was which, we'd make a lot of money. Overall, its' a pretty decent system. You just have to tweak it's results a bit. I think it doesn't like Verlander because he pitches better than his peripherals and it keeps thinking he'll come back to them. Fair or not? you decide. If you check my archives -- all new program doing them thanks to a tip from Bilfer -- you'll find some posts about PECOTA and BP from last January-March and, looking back, the system did pretty good. Me, I think Verlander is closer to 17-20 wins and the Tigers, when tweaked properly, are closer to 95 than t0 89. It was a bit too pessimistic last year too. The thing about PECOTA is, it’s going to be right on sometimes, it’s going to be wrong sometimes, and if we knew which was which, we’d make a lot of money. Overall, its’ a pretty decent system. You just have to tweak it’s results a bit.

I think it doesn’t like Verlander because he pitches better than his peripherals and it keeps thinking he’ll come back to them. Fair or not? you decide. If you check my archives — all new program doing them thanks to a tip from Bilfer — you’ll find some posts about PECOTA and BP from last January-March and, looking back, the system did pretty good.

Me, I think Verlander is closer to 17-20 wins and the Tigers, when tweaked properly, are closer to 95 than t0 89. It was a bit too pessimistic last year too.

]]> By: Blake http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2008/02/25/a-few-lineup-notes/#comment-25680 Blake Mon, 25 Feb 2008 18:29:20 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2008/02/25/a-few-lineup-notes/#comment-25680 Yeah, I don't fully understand how BP comes up with some of the predictions. I was just thumbing through it and I think they have Verlander winning 12 or 13 games this year. Seems quite a bit low. I still love their stuff, but sometimes it doesn't really add up. Yeah, I don’t fully understand how BP comes up with some of the predictions. I was just thumbing through it and I think they have Verlander winning 12 or 13 games this year. Seems quite a bit low. I still love their stuff, but sometimes it doesn’t really add up.

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