Detroit’s only resident Tiger wants to stay in town
posted in 2007-08 offseason, Analysis |Nate Robertson lives in metro Detroit. Yearround. By choice. This fact alone makes him popular with Michiganders, as I think we sort of have a chip on our shoulder and embrace anyone who chooses to be one of us.
Jon Paul Morosi reports today Robertson would like to sign a contract extention to remain a Tiger past 2009. He follows the lead of Dontrelle Willis, who said last week he’d like his contract extended past 2009 as well.
Robertson, a 30-year-old left-hander, was offered salary arbitration last week. So, even if he does not sign a long-term deal, Robertson will receive a raise over the $3.26 million he earned last season, when he went 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA in 30 starts. (Morosi)
This bit of timing brings up an interesting question, the same one the Tigers must answer with Willis’ request: Should the Tigers risk it to possibly save money? Robertson, like Willis, is coming off a bad year. Theorhetically anyway, that should keep their prices down (for the same reason the Tigers can’t trade Brandon Inge with that salary, he isn’t worth it!). So there should be a discount for a deal, especially since it gives the players countless guaranteed millions even though they pitched poorly. The players take the risk they are costing themselves money if they bounce back to past form. That brings up the opposite. The Tigers would like to save money and have a pair of solid lefties. But if either, or neither player bounces back, they’re in the Inge situation, paying too much for not enough production.
Robertson might be seen as a poster boy for ignoring win-loss record. In 2006, he led the MLB in tough-luck losses (7), which is when a player is tagged with the loss even though he had a quality start of 3 ER or fewer allowed in six innings. Looking at the past three years, he made quality starts in 50 percent (2005), 63 percent (2006) and 43 percent (2007) of his starts.
My guess is Robertson’s 2006 season is going to be peak of his career. He was 29. He’ll likely go downhill some as he ages. But I also believe 2007, during which he went on the DL for a tired arm, which he disputed, is not necessarily the Robertson we’re going to see either. Going forward, I expect he’ll be a solid No. 4 guy.
More important — and intriguing — to me is Willis. Due to his age (26) Willis is not exactly in the same situation as Robertson. We can expect Robertson will slide as he ages. But Willis, with much higher peak than Robertson, to date, has a chance to improve.. Maybe he can’t match 2005, when he finished as runner-up in the Cy Young with a 2.63 ERA with a K/9 only a few hundredths more than that of 2007. Willis also hadn’t had an ERA of more than 4.02 before last season, during which he says he pitched injured. But of the two, extending Willis seems safer, though that really depends on the dollar amounts.
To really decide on the two, we have to imagine the Tigers’ rotation in 2010-2011. Right now, it looks like the rotation could be, in order: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and two open spots. One spot could be taken by Rick Porcello in 2010, but almost definitely 2011. Given I can’t think of any up-and-coming pitchers left who could crack the rotation at No. 5, I’ll say signing Robertson could make some sense. That gives 3 power righties to go with two lefties. I could see it.
So to me, if Robertson accepts No. 4 money to stay through 2011, great. If his aims are too high, I’d take the wait-and-see approach. Maybe a prospect bubbles up (or is traded for). There could be something on the free agent market by then. But if not, keeping your No. 4/5 is quite often cheaper than signing a free agent version of the same. In any case, I see no reason to rush.
Sphere It
When I wrote my post, I’d forgotten that Nate was the only guy that lived in the Detroit area year-round. That surely contributes to his popularity among fans.
But yeah, I think we generally agree. If Nate is paid like a 4th or 5th starter - which is what he is - then he and the Tigers could come to an agreement. If he thinks he should cash in, that’ll probably have to happen in another city.
I like Nasty Nate. Me thinks a 3 year deal in the 12-16 million dollar range would be excellent. I am sure he owuld like a little more, but he is also getting to play for a great team, this could help keep him a little cheaper. For a 5th starter, he should be fine.
I’ll jump on board here. I have to agree. Going forward a few years its’ safe to assume that Porcello will be part of the rotation along with the three you mentioned. I think if Robertson can be had for four more years then I think that is a reasonable investment. Anything beyond that is quite risky and of course the money would have to be right as well.
They could also wait until after the June draft this year and see how they fel about their draft. Should they get some good college aged pitchers, they could always be ready in two years as well for a fraction of the cost.