Comments on: Bringing back the little Pudgy one http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/ Fri, 21 Nov 2008 18:40:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Kurt http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16774 Kurt Thu, 06 Sep 2007 14:20:32 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16774 That's what I'm guessing, too, Matt. It just doesn't seem realistic to expect he'll be affordable. And I just don't see how he's worth that much. Whether or not I agree, I think they bring him back and he'll be just as bad next year. That’s what I’m guessing, too, Matt. It just doesn’t seem realistic to expect he’ll be affordable. And I just don’t see how he’s worth that much.

Whether or not I agree, I think they bring him back and he’ll be just as bad next year.

]]> By: Matt in Toledo http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16773 Matt in Toledo Thu, 06 Sep 2007 14:08:40 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16773 I think the possibility of not exercising his option and then signing him to something less than $10M is about the same as him going 0 for 0 with five walks this afternoon. If they don't exercise his option, he's a free agent and if he's a free agent he's getting something way better than the one year, $6-8M you'd be talking about to make not exercising his option worthwhile. The free agent catching market is terrible, and if Posada doesn't enter it (which I doubt he will) Pudge will be the best available catcher. I'd bet large sums of money he gets a multi-year deal if he's a free agent, and I'd parlay that bet with another one that says he'd get an average at or above the $6M-$8M previously mentioned. I think the possibility of not exercising his option and then signing him to something less than $10M is about the same as him going 0 for 0 with five walks this afternoon. If they don’t exercise his option, he’s a free agent and if he’s a free agent he’s getting something way better than the one year, $6-8M you’d be talking about to make not exercising his option worthwhile.

The free agent catching market is terrible, and if Posada doesn’t enter it (which I doubt he will) Pudge will be the best available catcher. I’d bet large sums of money he gets a multi-year deal if he’s a free agent, and I’d parlay that bet with another one that says he’d get an average at or above the $6M-$8M previously mentioned.

]]> By: Will http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16708 Will Wed, 05 Sep 2007 22:10:20 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16708 by putting butts in the seats, i was more refering to Pudge's fanbase in Detroit coming out to see the games. Winning is definitly a chemistry builder, but to blame Casey for the teams lackluster performances down the stretch the last two years isn't really fair to Sean. Especially when he was the only player that hit during the World Series last year. He can't use his clubhouse leadership to pitch in september. And he's not the one who keeps throwing Robertson out every 5 days, and got rid of Ledezma and Maroth when they are basically the same guy, the stats show all 3 gave up between 4.8-5.2 ER per 9 innings while with the tigers, but somehow Robertson is safe and the other two were given away. I think cutting pudge loose without knowing you can resign him before hand will prove to be a bad move, and will effect the other players on the field way more than pudges .300 OBP will. I agree completely that he needs to drop to 8th in the order at best and given some more days off, they always comment how pudge doesn't want days off, but anyone who's played sports knows unless you're really hurt, you wanna play every inning of every game. I'd take another quality starter and let Pudge and Rabelo split time and give Raburn a legitimate shot to win the job from Inge in the preseason and we'd be in great shape. I don't think Pudge is worth the 10 Million, but then again it's not my money, so spend it while they have it by putting butts in the seats, i was more refering to Pudge’s fanbase in Detroit coming out to see the games. Winning is definitly a chemistry builder, but to blame Casey for the teams lackluster performances down the stretch the last two years isn’t really fair to Sean. Especially when he was the only player that hit during the World Series last year. He can’t use his clubhouse leadership to pitch in september. And he’s not the one who keeps throwing Robertson out every 5 days, and got rid of Ledezma and Maroth when they are basically the same guy, the stats show all 3 gave up between 4.8-5.2 ER per 9 innings while with the tigers, but somehow Robertson is safe and the other two were given away. I think cutting pudge loose without knowing you can resign him before hand will prove to be a bad move, and will effect the other players on the field way more than pudges .300 OBP will. I agree completely that he needs to drop to 8th in the order at best and given some more days off, they always comment how pudge doesn’t want days off, but anyone who’s played sports knows unless you’re really hurt, you wanna play every inning of every game. I’d take another quality starter and let Pudge and Rabelo split time and give Raburn a legitimate shot to win the job from Inge in the preseason and we’d be in great shape. I don’t think Pudge is worth the 10 Million, but then again it’s not my money, so spend it while they have it

]]> By: Kurt http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16641 Kurt Wed, 05 Sep 2007 03:27:19 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16641 Will, a few replies. 1) What Pudge is hitting for his batting average really doesn't matter unless you're an old sportswriter. He doens't walk, so his on base percentage is hardly above his batting average. And an OBP that low is just plain awful. 2) Names put a couple butts in the seats. But winning puts more. Some numbers: 2003: 42.6%, 17,000 2004: 59.7%, 23,900 *guillen, pudge arrives* 2005: 61.3%, 25,300 *maggs arrives* 2006: 79.9%, 32,000 *verlander, rogers, zumaya arrive* 2007: 94.6%, 37,000 *sheffield arrives* I guess you could attribute 2004's increase in fans to Pudge's arrival, but only if you want to attribute 2006's increas to V, Z and Rogers. More likely, the reason the fans went up is the team started winning more in 2004. And it really started winning in 2006. And it was defending A.L. champions in 2007. So in reality, Pudge doesn't put fans in the seats, the team winning does. 3) The clubhouse value of Casey must be pretty bad. He went to a team 20+ games over .500 at the 2006 trade deadline and they're been around .500 since. I don't know what he said, but it must have been sorta uninspiring. Of course, Pudge's clubhouse value went up with the quality of players went up. How about this? Players win games. Winning breeds chemistry. And guys who don't get on base don't score. If the Tigers can bring him back for 3 or 4M, I'm all for it. It's a stopgap. But I'd rather they spend that 10M to make a bigger difference in upgrading than Pudge makes over replacement. Will, a few replies.

1) What Pudge is hitting for his batting average really doesn’t matter unless you’re an old sportswriter. He doens’t walk, so his on base percentage is hardly above his batting average. And an OBP that low is just plain awful.

2) Names put a couple butts in the seats. But winning puts more. Some numbers:

2003: 42.6%, 17,000
2004: 59.7%, 23,900 *guillen, pudge arrives*
2005: 61.3%, 25,300 *maggs arrives*
2006: 79.9%, 32,000 *verlander, rogers, zumaya arrive*
2007: 94.6%, 37,000 *sheffield arrives*

I guess you could attribute 2004’s increase in fans to Pudge’s arrival, but only if you want to attribute 2006’s increas to V, Z and Rogers.

More likely, the reason the fans went up is the team started winning more in 2004. And it really started winning in 2006. And it was defending A.L. champions in 2007.

So in reality, Pudge doesn’t put fans in the seats, the team winning does.

3) The clubhouse value of Casey must be pretty bad. He went to a team 20+ games over .500 at the 2006 trade deadline and they’re been around .500 since. I don’t know what he said, but it must have been sorta uninspiring. Of course, Pudge’s clubhouse value went up with the quality of players went up.

How about this? Players win games. Winning breeds chemistry. And guys who don’t get on base don’t score.

If the Tigers can bring him back for 3 or 4M, I’m all for it. It’s a stopgap. But I’d rather they spend that 10M to make a bigger difference in upgrading than Pudge makes over replacement.

]]> By: Mike R http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16639 Mike R Wed, 05 Sep 2007 02:03:47 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16639 In 2005, Pudge posted a .276/.290/.444 line which is comparable to his .274/.286/.415 2007 vital line. Last year, he bounced back from that 2005 line to post a solid .300/.325/.437. Granted, he's going to be a year older but it is possible for him to rebound. I'm in favor of buying him out and attempting to resign him for less. I've been a Mike Rabelo fan most of this year and from May-July he may have been our best part time hitter/player and he's shown he can replace Pudge's level of play from this season. The thing with I-Rod is, though, there's few examples of a catcher who's been this good for this long to look and possibly see how quick the drop off is. Johnny Bench retired by 35. His similar batters through age 35, his most similar is Joe Torre. But, Torre quit catch by age 30 and thus prolonged his career. Other guys on his most similar through Age X are Yogi Berra (quit catching the majority of his games and moved to the OF by age 36 and at age 35 he played 63 games behind the plate, 36 in the OF) and Ted Simmons. Simmons prolonged his career via the DH and really quit spending the majority of his time behind the plate by age 33. So it's really hard to even get a grasp of how quickly I-Rod's numbers could plummet. I don't think a .255/.270/.390 line is out of the question from him next season. It's just that options outside the organization via FA are so scarce that it is just appealing to keep the fan favorite around. Internal options are non-existent outside of Rabelo and Wilson. This could be the tip of the iceberg for how terrible I-Rod could be in 08. The other option to explore is a trade, but young catchers are so scarce that it'd be hard to pry one away. I wonder if we could've packaged Monroe and Robertson + a prospect for Saltalamacchia from Atlanta last December. Hell, even last March. In 2005, Pudge posted a .276/.290/.444 line which is comparable to his .274/.286/.415 2007 vital line. Last year, he bounced back from that 2005 line to post a solid .300/.325/.437.

Granted, he’s going to be a year older but it is possible for him to rebound. I’m in favor of buying him out and attempting to resign him for less. I’ve been a Mike Rabelo fan most of this year and from May-July he may have been our best part time hitter/player and he’s shown he can replace Pudge’s level of play from this season.

The thing with I-Rod is, though, there’s few examples of a catcher who’s been this good for this long to look and possibly see how quick the drop off is. Johnny Bench retired by 35. His similar batters through age 35, his most similar is Joe Torre. But, Torre quit catch by age 30 and thus prolonged his career. Other guys on his most similar through Age X are Yogi Berra (quit catching the majority of his games and moved to the OF by age 36 and at age 35 he played 63 games behind the plate, 36 in the OF) and Ted Simmons. Simmons prolonged his career via the DH and really quit spending the majority of his time behind the plate by age 33.

So it’s really hard to even get a grasp of how quickly I-Rod’s numbers could plummet. I don’t think a .255/.270/.390 line is out of the question from him next season. It’s just that options outside the organization via FA are so scarce that it is just appealing to keep the fan favorite around. Internal options are non-existent outside of Rabelo and Wilson. This could be the tip of the iceberg for how terrible I-Rod could be in 08.

The other option to explore is a trade, but young catchers are so scarce that it’d be hard to pry one away. I wonder if we could’ve packaged Monroe and Robertson + a prospect for Saltalamacchia from Atlanta last December. Hell, even last March.

]]> By: Will http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16635 Will Wed, 05 Sep 2007 01:22:11 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16635 Names do however put butts in the seats. Detroit loves pudge, and whether he's struggling or not, he's still hitting .270 and is the reason the team is where it's at the last 2 years. I think alot of "experts" and fans underestimate the clubhouse value of certain players, guys like Casey and Pudge bring a team together and provide fan unity as well, my opinion is they should definitly attempt to buy him out and set up a resign ahead of that, just on a business level, but otherwise i think they should just "pay that man his money" and give this team a chance to win again next year. i've liked Rabelo and Wilson, but there's a reason these 2 aren't everyday catchers already, i think if you come into next year with Rabelo and Wilson, fans are in for a shocker when these guys start to slump from the pressure of being the everyday guy, if they had a super stud waiting in the wings, i'd say cut him loose and turn it over, but theres no reason to cut loose a sure hall-of-famer who could go into the hall a tiger for an unproven platoon. Besides Illitch has the money, if a leftfielder, or 3rd baseman show interest in detroit this winter, which they will, he'll pay them too, the value to him if Detroit can pull off a World Championship again is through the roof with the things he can do in the state of michigan with them Names do however put butts in the seats. Detroit loves pudge, and whether he’s struggling or not, he’s still hitting .270 and is the reason the team is where it’s at the last 2 years. I think alot of “experts” and fans underestimate the clubhouse value of certain players, guys like Casey and Pudge bring a team together and provide fan unity as well, my opinion is they should definitly attempt to buy him out and set up a resign ahead of that, just on a business level, but otherwise i think they should just “pay that man his money” and give this team a chance to win again next year. i’ve liked Rabelo and Wilson, but there’s a reason these 2 aren’t everyday catchers already, i think if you come into next year with Rabelo and Wilson, fans are in for a shocker when these guys start to slump from the pressure of being the everyday guy, if they had a super stud waiting in the wings, i’d say cut him loose and turn it over, but theres no reason to cut loose a sure hall-of-famer who could go into the hall a tiger for an unproven platoon. Besides Illitch has the money, if a leftfielder, or 3rd baseman show interest in detroit this winter, which they will, he’ll pay them too, the value to him if Detroit can pull off a World Championship again is through the roof with the things he can do in the state of michigan with them

]]> By: Kurt http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16625 Kurt Tue, 04 Sep 2007 21:46:53 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16625 Greg, my contention is still: Pudge is not that good. His lack of discipline, his lack of getting on base, his lack of being a backstop, his lack of throwing out players... his VORP if you're into that sorta thing. He is no longer that good a catcher. You're paying for name, and names don't win games. Greg, my contention is still: Pudge is not that good. His lack of discipline, his lack of getting on base, his lack of being a backstop, his lack of throwing out players… his VORP if you’re into that sorta thing. He is no longer that good a catcher. You’re paying for name, and names don’t win games.

]]> By: Greg http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16624 Greg Tue, 04 Sep 2007 21:42:53 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16624 That should say "principles." That should say “principles.”

]]> By: Greg http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16623 Greg Tue, 04 Sep 2007 21:42:08 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16623 I remember an article by Rob Neyer about this a few years ago. Sabermetricians have a tendency to focus on getting the best return on investment. Moneyball, for example, was about exploiting market inefficiencies to pay less for certain players than what those players would be worth in a perfectly-functioning market. That's fine for business, but the goal in sports should be slightly different. I don't want to be the Oakland A's and lead the league in wins per salary. As a fan, I would much rather have a championship, even if it was achieved in an inefficient manner. Just something to think about. To some extent, these principals overlap because every team (except New York) has limited capital, so they have to use it wisely. I remember an article by Rob Neyer about this a few years ago. Sabermetricians have a tendency to focus on getting the best return on investment. Moneyball, for example, was about exploiting market inefficiencies to pay less for certain players than what those players would be worth in a perfectly-functioning market.

That’s fine for business, but the goal in sports should be slightly different. I don’t want to be the Oakland A’s and lead the league in wins per salary. As a fan, I would much rather have a championship, even if it was achieved in an inefficient manner.

Just something to think about. To some extent, these principals overlap because every team (except New York) has limited capital, so they have to use it wisely.

]]> By: Greg http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16622 Greg Tue, 04 Sep 2007 21:34:45 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16622 My opinion, then, for what it's worth, is they should pay the $3M buy-out and try to resign him for something below $10M (because otherwise they would just exercise the option). I prefer overpaying for Pudge (to an extent) than having Kendall, Wilson, or Rabelo as the #1. It's easier to find cheap replacements for corner outfielders and relief pitchers, the other weak spots. My opinion, then, for what it’s worth, is they should pay the $3M buy-out and try to resign him for something below $10M (because otherwise they would just exercise the option).

I prefer overpaying for Pudge (to an extent) than having Kendall, Wilson, or Rabelo as the #1. It’s easier to find cheap replacements for corner outfielders and relief pitchers, the other weak spots.

]]> By: Kurt http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16558 Kurt Tue, 04 Sep 2007 05:02:47 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16558 Thanks for those comments Greg. Allow me to clarify. This was a question of picking up his option. Second, I think he will probably make closer to $8 to 10M on the free agent market anyway. Supply, as you said, is not that good. Jason Kendall and pretty much nothing. And he's not that much. But as I think I've shown, Pudge's production was not much above replacement, so I don't feel like the Tigers should be overpaying for the position. Thanks for those comments Greg. Allow me to clarify.

This was a question of picking up his option. Second, I think he will probably make closer to $8 to 10M on the free agent market anyway.

Supply, as you said, is not that good. Jason Kendall and pretty much nothing. And he’s not that much. But as I think I’ve shown, Pudge’s production was not much above replacement, so I don’t feel like the Tigers should be overpaying for the position.

]]> By: Greg http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16557 Greg Tue, 04 Sep 2007 04:58:22 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16557 It isn't necessarily a $10M question. Detroit could buy him out for $3M, and then try to resign him for another $4M. This would require Detroit to pay $3M more than other teams to match competing offers, but Pudge might also take a home-town discount. Another variable missing is the market for free agent catchers next year. Value is a function of supply and demand, not just demand (i.e. skills). It isn’t necessarily a $10M question. Detroit could buy him out for $3M, and then try to resign him for another $4M. This would require Detroit to pay $3M more than other teams to match competing offers, but Pudge might also take a home-town discount.

Another variable missing is the market for free agent catchers next year. Value is a function of supply and demand, not just demand (i.e. skills).

]]> By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » links for 2007-09-03 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16530 The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » links for 2007-09-03 Mon, 03 Sep 2007 17:21:47 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16530 [...] Bringing back the little Pudgy one » Mack Avenue Tigers : A Detroit Tigers Blog To Pudge or not to Pudge…that is the question (tags: pudge-rodriguez) [...] [...] Bringing back the little Pudgy one » Mack Avenue Tigers : A Detroit Tigers Blog To Pudge or not to Pudge…that is the question (tags: pudge-rodriguez) [...]

]]> By: dantheman http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16378 dantheman Sat, 01 Sep 2007 02:04:42 +0000 http://www.mackavenuetigers.com/2007/08/31/bringing-back-the-little-pudgy-one/#comment-16378 Can Inge still catch? Move him behind the plate and spend the $10 million on a real third baseman (where we could get serious production for that kind of money) sounds like an option. Can Inge still catch? Move him behind the plate and spend the $10 million on a real third baseman (where we could get serious production for that kind of money) sounds like an option.

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