Bringing back the little Pudgy one
posted in 2007 season, Analysis |I really planned to address this question after the season was over. But with a blog posting at D-Town, a Detroit News article by Lynn Henning and reaction at the MotownSports forum, now seems as good as any time.
Economics up front
The Tigers have a $13 M club option for Pudge Rodriguez with a guaranteed $3M buyout. That’s money they owe him either way, so think of the cost of Pudge in 2008 as $10M, not $13M, so 10M is the figure I’ll use in the rest of the post. The question put forth by the News’ headline writer: “Is Pudge WORTH IT (sic)”? This is not just a baseball skills question.
- Are Pudge’s baseball skills worth it?
It seems to me, no. Catchers age hard, and many baseball people thought Pudge would see his baseball abilities decrease long before the fourth year of the contract.
Now, his defense is waning. His caught stealing rate is 26.2 percent, sixth among regular starters in the A.L. (”Regular starters” is my estimation. Mauer is not “qualified” but started 76 games. That seemed regular enough). The number of passed balls + wild pitches (I combine those because it’s up to the scorekeeper to decide who gets the blame, it’s up to the catcher to stop as many pitches as possible. Some wild pitches were obviously uncatchable, some I’ve observed I thought many catchers would corral). And he has the second most errors in the AL. However, his range factor is second best.
At the plate, Pudge has an OPS+ of 84 and a VORP of 8.5. His OPS+ number is compared to a baseline average of 100 (average) since 2004. He is 16% worse than it. His value above replacement being just 8.5 does not make me think he’s significantly all that good. He refuses to take a walk, so his avg/obp/slg is .274/.286/.417. You can see his splits yourself, but there’s no magic bullet in there that says his stats are lying to you.
Compared to others in MLB
To put this into perspective though, his defensive stats make him appear slightly worse than Cleveland’s Victor Martinez and about the same as NY’s Jorge Posada. Both are significantly better hitters. Posada has an OPS+ of 153. This season is a career high, however, I wouldn’t predict that into the future much. His VORP is 57.8.
Comparing costs, Jorge Posada (who is a free agent after this season) cost $12M. VMart, who is under club control still, cost $3.2M, a real bargain. Oh, and Boston’s Jason Varitek, better defensively than Pudge all around, cost $11M.
Compared to teammates
Last year, Vance Wilson has an OPS+ of 91 in 56 games. His defense did not make me think he sucked at it. And sabermetrically, saying a catcher makes a pitcher better is not based on stats. Mike Rabelo has an OPS+ of 76. (.263/.306/.358). Yes, Rabelo gets on base more often than Pudge, although his power is less right now.
Wilson’s Catcher ERA in 2006: 3.91. Pudge’s: 3.82). CERA may not be perfect, but in this case, it shows pitchers did well no matter who was the backstop. In 2007, Pudge’s ERA is 4.64 and Rabelo’s is 4.82. In both cases, Pudge was better. But I don’t see it as a significant difference.
Baseball conclusion
It seems to be, from a baseball dollars sense, Pudge’s value relative to his $10M cost is way, way less. He is not in Posada’s class. Not in VMart’s class. I’m not sure I’d want to put him in Varitek’s class. He’s hardly above his teammates. And Pudge is declining. And remember the direction we must continue to look is forward. Will Pudge be better than Rabelo and Wilson next season? Wilson is coming back from surgery on his elbow and probably can’t keep a starter’s workload. Most people don’t want to see Rabelo as an every day starter. And yet… Pudge is not significantly better. So how is he the one worth $10M?
This also helps answer the question of whether there are alternatives. Compared to the sunk cost contract of Wilson (in other words, Wilson is here either way next year, so he’s 0. Pudge is either going to cost 0 to not return or 10 to return), Pudge is definitely too costly. Compared to Mike Rabelo (who can return at likely little more than league minimum) Pudge is also way too costly.
On the free agent market, the cost of a name catcher would be several million dollars and multiple years. But, it’s my belief Pudge’s skills are declining such he should be compared to a backup, not a name starter. From that sense, I would not want to pay him $10M.
- Then what about intangibles?
The problem with intangibles lies in the word itself. It’s not tangible. It’s hard to quantify them. Some of the more intangible questions I thought of follow. I’ll give my opinions.
How much is Pudge’s leadership worth?
In a rudderless, young team, maybe something. On a team full of leaders (think: Carlos Guillen… think Jim Leyland), this seems not to be worth that much. Diminishing returns.
How much does Pudge make other teams think?
There might be some mystique to the future Hall of Famer. But there’s probably not much thought going on in the pitcher’s mind with runners on than “Throw balls, he’ll swing at bad pitches.” So I think this isn’t worth much either.
How much does Pudge make other players want to play in Detroit?
At some point in time, this was worth something. That point was 2005 and 2006 when Pudge was the star of an upstart club. Detroit was paying him more than his value, and recruitment ability was probably an intangible they paid for. Maybe now not everyone wants to play for the Tigers. But a club with some young stars, a sold out stadium, a no-hit pitcher, an MVP candidate… this is not significant value.
Will the loss of Pudge cause problems in the locker room?
Due to the above few questions, I think no. The Tigers look to be a perenniel postseason contender with some mature players. I doubt it’s going to cause a raucous if they don’t bring him back.
Conclusion: This doesn’t outweigh the cost above Pudge’s baseball worth.
- Do they owe Pudge anything?
The contract he was given following 2003 was above and beyond what he would have gotten. He earned a good amount of money, had four guaranteed years during a time there were injury fears. And he was able to cement his Hall of Fame credentials (as if they needed it!) by leading the club from the depths of 2003 to the World Series. It is not good business sense or fair to the other guys to reward him with an extension.
- Can the money be spent better elsewhere?
In baseball, the goal is to win games, obviously. But how do you win games? Limit runs. Score runs of your own. That’s what the Pythagorean theorem can predict a team’s record from runs scored and allowed. So the question to me is, can this $10M be better spent to maximize the difference between RS and RA? If either the cost of upgrading other positions was prohibitive or they didn’t need it, then maybe it’s worth it to pay Pudge.
However, the Tigers might need an outfielder. We don’t know if Cam Maybin is the answer next year to the LF problem. The Tigers probably need a starting pitcher, maybe two. The Tigers need a better first baseman. The Tigers could probably use some bullpen help (and must sign a closer or re-sign Todd Jones).
While an estimated $20M or s comes off the payrole from players who definitely aren’t coming back next season, I would say the $10M not given to Pudge would help in filling these needs.
- My conclusion
You can guess by now I don’t think Detroit should bring “the little Pudgy one,” as Rod Allen would call him, back with that extension. I was so thankful for when he signed. He is a major face of the organization. He helped make the Tigers who they are today. But the cost of the extension is far more than he would make on the free agent market, more than his worth and more than the cost of replacing most, if not all, of his lowly production on offense and defense.
I think they have to let him go.
Sphere It
Can Inge still catch? Move him behind the plate and spend the $10 million on a real third baseman (where we could get serious production for that kind of money) sounds like an option.
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It isn’t necessarily a $10M question. Detroit could buy him out for $3M, and then try to resign him for another $4M. This would require Detroit to pay $3M more than other teams to match competing offers, but Pudge might also take a home-town discount.
Another variable missing is the market for free agent catchers next year. Value is a function of supply and demand, not just demand (i.e. skills).
Thanks for those comments Greg. Allow me to clarify.
This was a question of picking up his option. Second, I think he will probably make closer to $8 to 10M on the free agent market anyway.
Supply, as you said, is not that good. Jason Kendall and pretty much nothing. And he’s not that much. But as I think I’ve shown, Pudge’s production was not much above replacement, so I don’t feel like the Tigers should be overpaying for the position.
My opinion, then, for what it’s worth, is they should pay the $3M buy-out and try to resign him for something below $10M (because otherwise they would just exercise the option).
I prefer overpaying for Pudge (to an extent) than having Kendall, Wilson, or Rabelo as the #1. It’s easier to find cheap replacements for corner outfielders and relief pitchers, the other weak spots.
I remember an article by Rob Neyer about this a few years ago. Sabermetricians have a tendency to focus on getting the best return on investment. Moneyball, for example, was about exploiting market inefficiencies to pay less for certain players than what those players would be worth in a perfectly-functioning market.
That’s fine for business, but the goal in sports should be slightly different. I don’t want to be the Oakland A’s and lead the league in wins per salary. As a fan, I would much rather have a championship, even if it was achieved in an inefficient manner.
Just something to think about. To some extent, these principals overlap because every team (except New York) has limited capital, so they have to use it wisely.
That should say “principles.”
Greg, my contention is still: Pudge is not that good. His lack of discipline, his lack of getting on base, his lack of being a backstop, his lack of throwing out players… his VORP if you’re into that sorta thing. He is no longer that good a catcher. You’re paying for name, and names don’t win games.
Names do however put butts in the seats. Detroit loves pudge, and whether he’s struggling or not, he’s still hitting .270 and is the reason the team is where it’s at the last 2 years. I think alot of “experts” and fans underestimate the clubhouse value of certain players, guys like Casey and Pudge bring a team together and provide fan unity as well, my opinion is they should definitly attempt to buy him out and set up a resign ahead of that, just on a business level, but otherwise i think they should just “pay that man his money” and give this team a chance to win again next year. i’ve liked Rabelo and Wilson, but there’s a reason these 2 aren’t everyday catchers already, i think if you come into next year with Rabelo and Wilson, fans are in for a shocker when these guys start to slump from the pressure of being the everyday guy, if they had a super stud waiting in the wings, i’d say cut him loose and turn it over, but theres no reason to cut loose a sure hall-of-famer who could go into the hall a tiger for an unproven platoon. Besides Illitch has the money, if a leftfielder, or 3rd baseman show interest in detroit this winter, which they will, he’ll pay them too, the value to him if Detroit can pull off a World Championship again is through the roof with the things he can do in the state of michigan with them
In 2005, Pudge posted a .276/.290/.444 line which is comparable to his .274/.286/.415 2007 vital line. Last year, he bounced back from that 2005 line to post a solid .300/.325/.437.
Granted, he’s going to be a year older but it is possible for him to rebound. I’m in favor of buying him out and attempting to resign him for less. I’ve been a Mike Rabelo fan most of this year and from May-July he may have been our best part time hitter/player and he’s shown he can replace Pudge’s level of play from this season.
The thing with I-Rod is, though, there’s few examples of a catcher who’s been this good for this long to look and possibly see how quick the drop off is. Johnny Bench retired by 35. His similar batters through age 35, his most similar is Joe Torre. But, Torre quit catch by age 30 and thus prolonged his career. Other guys on his most similar through Age X are Yogi Berra (quit catching the majority of his games and moved to the OF by age 36 and at age 35 he played 63 games behind the plate, 36 in the OF) and Ted Simmons. Simmons prolonged his career via the DH and really quit spending the majority of his time behind the plate by age 33.
So it’s really hard to even get a grasp of how quickly I-Rod’s numbers could plummet. I don’t think a .255/.270/.390 line is out of the question from him next season. It’s just that options outside the organization via FA are so scarce that it is just appealing to keep the fan favorite around. Internal options are non-existent outside of Rabelo and Wilson. This could be the tip of the iceberg for how terrible I-Rod could be in 08.
The other option to explore is a trade, but young catchers are so scarce that it’d be hard to pry one away. I wonder if we could’ve packaged Monroe and Robertson + a prospect for Saltalamacchia from Atlanta last December. Hell, even last March.
Will, a few replies.
1) What Pudge is hitting for his batting average really doesn’t matter unless you’re an old sportswriter. He doens’t walk, so his on base percentage is hardly above his batting average. And an OBP that low is just plain awful.
2) Names put a couple butts in the seats. But winning puts more. Some numbers:
2003: 42.6%, 17,000
2004: 59.7%, 23,900 *guillen, pudge arrives*
2005: 61.3%, 25,300 *maggs arrives*
2006: 79.9%, 32,000 *verlander, rogers, zumaya arrive*
2007: 94.6%, 37,000 *sheffield arrives*
I guess you could attribute 2004’s increase in fans to Pudge’s arrival, but only if you want to attribute 2006’s increas to V, Z and Rogers.
More likely, the reason the fans went up is the team started winning more in 2004. And it really started winning in 2006. And it was defending A.L. champions in 2007.
So in reality, Pudge doesn’t put fans in the seats, the team winning does.
3) The clubhouse value of Casey must be pretty bad. He went to a team 20+ games over .500 at the 2006 trade deadline and they’re been around .500 since. I don’t know what he said, but it must have been sorta uninspiring. Of course, Pudge’s clubhouse value went up with the quality of players went up.
How about this? Players win games. Winning breeds chemistry. And guys who don’t get on base don’t score.
If the Tigers can bring him back for 3 or 4M, I’m all for it. It’s a stopgap. But I’d rather they spend that 10M to make a bigger difference in upgrading than Pudge makes over replacement.
by putting butts in the seats, i was more refering to Pudge’s fanbase in Detroit coming out to see the games. Winning is definitly a chemistry builder, but to blame Casey for the teams lackluster performances down the stretch the last two years isn’t really fair to Sean. Especially when he was the only player that hit during the World Series last year. He can’t use his clubhouse leadership to pitch in september. And he’s not the one who keeps throwing Robertson out every 5 days, and got rid of Ledezma and Maroth when they are basically the same guy, the stats show all 3 gave up between 4.8-5.2 ER per 9 innings while with the tigers, but somehow Robertson is safe and the other two were given away. I think cutting pudge loose without knowing you can resign him before hand will prove to be a bad move, and will effect the other players on the field way more than pudges .300 OBP will. I agree completely that he needs to drop to 8th in the order at best and given some more days off, they always comment how pudge doesn’t want days off, but anyone who’s played sports knows unless you’re really hurt, you wanna play every inning of every game. I’d take another quality starter and let Pudge and Rabelo split time and give Raburn a legitimate shot to win the job from Inge in the preseason and we’d be in great shape. I don’t think Pudge is worth the 10 Million, but then again it’s not my money, so spend it while they have it
I think the possibility of not exercising his option and then signing him to something less than $10M is about the same as him going 0 for 0 with five walks this afternoon. If they don’t exercise his option, he’s a free agent and if he’s a free agent he’s getting something way better than the one year, $6-8M you’d be talking about to make not exercising his option worthwhile.
The free agent catching market is terrible, and if Posada doesn’t enter it (which I doubt he will) Pudge will be the best available catcher. I’d bet large sums of money he gets a multi-year deal if he’s a free agent, and I’d parlay that bet with another one that says he’d get an average at or above the $6M-$8M previously mentioned.
That’s what I’m guessing, too, Matt. It just doesn’t seem realistic to expect he’ll be affordable. And I just don’t see how he’s worth that much.
Whether or not I agree, I think they bring him back and he’ll be just as bad next year.