Sunday moanin’
posted in 2007 season, Analysis |This anonymous comment deserves further look:
What I’m afraid the reality might be is that this is the beginning of the end.
Yeah, I said it…it feels like they’re on the brink of something; either turning this thing around or going into the tank for good this year…would anyone be surprised to see them 5 games out of it by the end of August and clinging to hopes of a wild card berth?
This young tiger pitching staff looks tired and I don’t know how that gets turned around….the next couple weeks will show what Grampa Leyland and the boys are really made of.
I bring that out not to disagree with it, but rather, because it’s an idea worth exploring a bit more. I first put forth the similar thought several days ago, writing July 29
I know that all teams go through slumps. I told myself I wouldn’t worry. But after the past three series and given the injury problems and the way the pitching staff has been throwing lately, I am at least moving in the direction of the panic button. I think this is a real crisis, not a made-up one.
So, is it a slump or is it real?
Pitching by Month
| Month | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|
| April | 4.16 | 1.34 |
| May | 4.88 | 1.55 |
| June | 4.43 | 1.40 |
| July | 4.57 | 1.45 |
| August | 5.88 | 1.62 |
| Overall | 4.55 | 1.44 |
Keeping in mind the health of the pitching staff has been shaky during some of those months, that’s pretty consistently average tossing there. And while the Tigers get back two setup men this month, they just lost two starters to health problems. There is little reason for me to believe the Tigers are going to be all that much better than those numbers the rest of the season.
Then I look at the splits by month for the three starters, April through current.
Robertson: 2.43, 6.12, 5.17, 11.81, 4.50 (1 start)
Bonderman: 3.69, 2.66, 4.95, 5.31, 1 awful August start
Verlander: 2.79, 3.92, 2.65, 4.50
I said three starters because Miller has pitched only a couple of months and has hopefully reached his innings ceiling for the year as a starter. And the fifth spot has included Chad Durbin, Kenny Rogers and some spot starters.
What I’m saying is this: the starting pitching is average at best, and it’s consistently moving in the wrong direction. The bullpen, lord knows, is just not that good.
On the other hand, we have seen the team put some decent stretches together, as recently as July. Detroit swept the Minnesota Twins with three one-run victories. And yet in the same month, the team allowed 10+ runs to the Angels three straight games. Grasping hold of one side or the other is folly.
This pitching staff is about as good as its numbers would indicate, no better. Hopefully no worse.
Hitting by Month
| Month | OPS | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| April | .727 | 127 |
| May | .888 | 170 |
| June | .850 | 174 |
| July | .783 | 142 |
| August | .653 | -- |
| Overall | .810 | 624 |
It’s no new information that the hitting has carried the team. For awhile, the Tigers couldn’t win a game where the offense scored less than six runs. They got over that slump, fortunately, because I doubt any offense could keep up for an entire season the pace the Tigers bats set.
Since then, we have seen some older players slow down. Heck, the younger players, too. Magglio Ordonez fell off his extra-base hit power, but he’s keeping his average up at least. Gary Sheffield is hobbled by shoulder problems. Carlos Guillen had a pretty bad July. Hopefully that is just an anomaly. Marcus Thames went on the DL with a hamstring injury. A guy who can’t hit the ball — Craig Monroe — is getting regular playing time over Ryan Raburn.
I’m a bit hearkened by the fact August’s numbers look that bad, because there’s no way this team is as bad as a .650 OPS would indicate. I suspect the batting situation will most closely resemble July moving forward, but that depends on getting Monroe out of the lineup, Sheffield healthy and Thames back.
Conclusion
Obviously, the Tigers aren’t this bad. No one should expect them to continue a 2-8 pace going forward. This Tigers team is not the team of August and late July. On the other hand, I see no reason to believe it’s a .600 team going forward either. .550 maybe, .500 maybe.
Heading into this season, I feared that every year an aging team like this, and that’s what they are — the bulk of the offense comes from aging, injury prone players — stumbles. The Tigers didn’t take that stumble in the first half. Are they taking it in the second half? Quite possibly. Or maybe they’re just coming back to earth. In any case, it’s not hitting that’s the problem. Ironically, it’s the pitching.
Injuries to the pitching staff are going to make it really hard for the Tigers to make the playoffs. It would still have been the case if the Tigers made a trade, for what it’s worth. But maybe they should have made a stronger run, because there’s no guarantee the aging sluggers are going to put together a better 2008-09. But that’s for another debate.
If guys come back from the DL feeling pretty good, then the Tigers still might hold on. At this point, you really have to examine the Indians, Mariners, Yankees and maybe Twins closer to tell, because the Tigers have to outplay them the final two months of the year, not hurdle some statistical mark.
In any case, yes, there is reason to worry.
Sphere It
This is a good analysis. It illustrates that the offense has carried the team all year and that they probably won’t start winning a lot unless the hitters start pounding again. I’m not giving up hope but I was a lot more optimistic during last year’s slide than I am this year.
Lee