Halftime Analyis Part 1- My analysis
posted in 2007 season, Analysis |At the All-Star Break, the Tigers lead the division and are just one-half a game behind Boston for the best record in baseball. That sounds like a pretty rosy picture. I think they are that good a team — better actually when you consider all they’ve been through — and they will hold on to make a second straight playoff berth. Whether they win the Central Division, I don’t know, but my gut says yes.
A Look Back
If you told me before the season the Tigers would enter the break near the top of the sport, I’d have agreed with you.
If you had then told me “But Joel Zumaya missed most of the first half. Kenny Rogers missed most of the first half, so Chad Durbin started.. Fernando Rodney pitched poorly and bounced off the disabled list multiple times. The Tigers went through 19 pitchers. And their defense wasn’t all that great,” then maybe I’d have called you a liar. Both for conjuring up such an absurd scenario of woeful events and the Tigers overcoming it in a tough Central Division.
This is an example of a team primed for a strong second half if they can find anything resembling health. It’s hard to believe the injury problem and bullpen can get any worse, and yet, it happened in the first place. So I don’t know if we can make any absolute predictions on a strong second half.
Still, I give the Tigers an overall grade of B. (Actually, for my quick recap of the season complete with grades, look at SportsProjetions.com, which asked me to do so in late June).
The batting is easily an A. Maybe an A+ if you are the type to believe A’s should have +’s. The Tigers scored 512 runs in 86 games. That is a franchise-record setting pace. Curtis Granderson through Carlos Guillen — that’s 1 through 6 - are solid batters. I think we may see a slight slowdown from one or all of them, but I don’t think it’ll slow down, on the whole.
The pitching I gave a C+. The ragtag rotation is pretty good. Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are duking it out for top billing on the staff. Andrew Miller, who has pitched about half the half-season, has looked really good at times for this being his first full season in pro ball, not just the majors. Kenny Rogers came back from his shoulder blood-clot surgery early and will continue to pitch great, I think. Chad Durbin pitched well after a stumble in April. And then we have Nate Robertson. The Tigers are 4-10 when Robertson starts. Ouch. Can he get worse? Probably not. So I think he’ll get better, too.
The bullpen was obviously a trouble spot. Even before Joel Zumaya ruptured his middle finger tendon during warmups, he was shaky and the bullpen was shaky. It was a problem all of April. It, of course, got worse after that. Rodney was no good either. Todd Jones is a bit worse. So that’s no seventh-eight-ninth inning lead security. And before that? Well, there’s a reason those guys area merry-go-round. Nobody has been that good. The lefty-one-out-guys have been fine against lefties, but they’ve been asked to pitch to right-handed batters and have stumbled. In all, the bullpen is bad. The Tigers are still looking for answers and will likely have to hit the trade market, but that’s no guarantee either.
The defense hasn’t been as good overall. Curtis Granderson, however, has been great. Placido Polanco is above average. On the other hand, Carlos Guillen can be scary and Pudge Rodriguez is starting to get older. He isn’t quite as good at playing the defense of his position.
Looking forward
Like I said, even though the offense is bound to slow down some, I think the run prevention is bound to improve. It seems to be doing that already. I think it’s pretty clear we’re watching a playoff team here.
The Central Division is not as tough as everyone thought. Kansas City isn’t all that much better. The White Sox are just awful and will probably trade away some veterans by the trade deadline and get worse. (For those looking ahead at the schedule, the Tigers play them in the last series of the year). The Twins just aren’t as good as everyone thought they’d be. Their rotation certainly isn’t. But they’ll certainly be dangerous. What remains to be seen is if the Indians can keep up their pace. They’re a good ballclub, but, again, I’m not sure how much I like that rotation or bullpen. I’m going to call them a playoff team nonetheless and still give them a shot to win the division.
That leaves the wildcard hunt. I look for Seattle to come back to earth and be more Seattlelike. I just don’t see the Yankees as closing the gap and making the playoffs, though you do have to fear the horses they have at the positions, the pitching isn’t there. And other than Minnesota, who’s left? There’s really very few AL teams without significant problems this year.
I’m not going to predict what happens in the playoffs yet.
Some thoughts on individuals:
- Magglio Ordonez will not win the batting title nor will he break the doubles record. But he will be more than good enough a batter to continue being one of Detroit’s top batters.
- Curtis Granderson finishes around the 25 triples mark, possibly tying the AL record set about a million years ago.
- No Tigers pitchers are significantly in the Cy Young hunt, but Verlander and Bonderman remain at the top of the next-below tier.
- Andrew Miller remains in the rotation all season, driving up the blood pressure of Tigers fans who worry about his arm and durability.
- Joel Zumaya comes back in late August, pitching in the upper 90s (by choice this time) rather than the 100s.
- Despite Tigers fans’ pleas, Todd Jones is not replaced by a trade deadline acquisition.
Recap:
Keep enjoying this season. We continue to be lucky fans. Not only is this a very good team to root for, it’s a very fun team to watch with not just quality offense, defense and pitching, but some interesting characters and unique occurences.
It’s fun. Try not to sweat the small stuff. It’s hard when it occurs, and yet, the past three weeks have shown us that there’s going to be ups and downs and ups and downs. Don’t fret about every down. Things aren’t perfect. The manager isn’t perfect. The general manager doesn’t make every correct decision. But more often than not, things work out.
Get ready for October, Tigers fans.
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