MLB draft preview Q&A with Matt Wallace
posted in 2007 season, draft |Major League Baseball will hold its amateur draft Thursday. To most sports fans, this meant pretty much nothing in the past. Players few people knew anything about were drafted by teams who hoped they’d turn into something good, then stashed away in their minor league system where even fans of their A-ball team had no clue who they were. A more uniquely Tigers fan perspective on the draft might have been: Why bother paying attention? It’ll just be another bust. But you get the point. The draft was no big deal.
That may be starting to change. Whether we are in a boom period or major league teams are looking at the players they draft in a new way, star prospects seem to be getting to The Show faster and faster. Last year, Andrew Miller went from being a star pitcher in North Carolina to being in the Tigers’ bullpen within two months. San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum debuted as a major league starter with much acclaim less than a year after the draft, as well. Teams like Tampa Bay and Florida are even getting their highly talented high school picks to the majors after only a few years in the minors.
And now ESPN will be broadcasting the amateur draft, as well. Baseball’s draft may never turn into the required viewership that the NFL and NBA draft is, both for fans of losing and winning teams. But I think it can only be a good thing to have more exposure for the sport.
With those thoughts in hand, I asked Matt Wallace of the minor-league blog Take 75 North a few questions about the draft, as well as the Tigers strategy and what prospects he has his eye on. The discussion follows.
Me: The MLB amateur first-year draft is televised this year. Other than a far-too-long name that I probably messed up, why do you think it hasn’t been a spectacle in the past like the NFL and NBA? Do you have plans to watch it?
Matt: Perhaps the biggest reason it doesn’t get as much coverage as the NFL and the NBA is the fact that it’s so hard to keep up on draft prospects in baseball. In baseball, it is almost impossible to see a prospect before the draft if it’s not your job to do so or they’re not local. Your best chance to see college players is the College World Series, and most of that takes place after the draft.
In football and basketball, you can just turn on ESPN and at some point during the season you will be able to see almost all of the top prospects. So it’s not only harder for fans to acquaint themselves to the potential draftees in baseball, it’s harder for the media. Combine that with the more common reason you hear – the players usually don’t play in the majors for a few years, if ever – and the mainstream media has a reasonable excuse to leave the baseball draft to the geeks.
I’ll be working, so I won’t be able to catch the draft, but I’d definitely watch if I were home. I love the idea and have been saying baseball should promote it more for years now. I make the argument to people and they say, “But nobody knows who these guys are!” Well, that’s the purpose of the draft show; to tell them who they are. Most people haven’t seen the football players they get so excited about before the NFL draft, but they get excited because Mel Kiper tells them they should.
Not only that, if you give these kids exposure, it would seem there’s a very good potential for growing the interest in the minor leagues. If a Tiger fan knows they just dumped $3M on some high school kid from California, they might be a little more likely to peek at MiLB.com and see how that kid is doing.
Me: Do you think the draft is more of a crapshoot, or do you think teams can consistently find guys that will help them in the future?
Matt: I think a lot of it is a crapshoot, but I also think it’s possible to position yourself to make success a better bet. I don’t know what the best strategy is, but I believe there is good strategy in drafting and some teams are better at it than others. Look at the Tigers before these last few years. They always drafted high, and for a long, long time their drafts produced next to nothing. I know there is more to the draft than the first round, but look at their picks from 1992 to 2003.
1992: 16. Rick Greene
1993: 9. Matt Brunson
1994: 18. Cade Gaspar
1995: 11. Mike Drumright
1996: 6. Seth Greisinger
1997: 1. Matt Anderson
1998: 14. Jeff Weaver
1999: 3. Eric Munson
2000: 8. Matt Wheatland
2001: 11. Kenny Baugh
2002: 8. Scott Moore
2003: 3. Kyle Sleeth
I don’t mean to drudge up bad memories, but that is an awful, awful track record over twelve years when their average position was about tenth. There is no way that’s all bad luck. It’s not bad luck picking a reliever with the first pick of the draft; it’s idiocy.
Me: The Tigers took a lot of college players in the last draft, led by Andrew Miller in the first round. A year earlier, they took Justin Verlander, another college pitcher. Before that, it was a high schooler outfielder in Cameron Maybin. But before that? Another college pitcher in Kyle Sleeth. Based on your research, does it appear like grabbing college guys is part of their strategy? Do they have a strategy that you can ascertain?
Matt: Bryan Smith over at Baseball Prospectus is doing a series where he looks at each team’s draft director’s tendencies. He looked at David Chadd and concluded he prefers what’s perceived as the safer bet of college players. It’s hard to argue when you realize the Tigers’ first ten picks last year were college players. But beyond that, I think Chadd is too new with the team to get a good feel for his overall strategy. But if you look at the Tigers’ draft history, over the past few years, I believe you’ll see their preference seems to be: 1) college pitchers; 2) college position players; 3) high school position players; and 4) high school pitchers. Under Dombrowski, they’ve taken I think 23 high school pitchers and only eight of them have ever even played in the organization.
But it’s the first round most people are most interested in and for the first round I feel comfortable saying the Tigers truly do sign who they feel is the best player. They snatched up both Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin when they were available despite signability concerns. I don’t know if you remember, but they came very close to not signing Justin Verlander, too. So that’s three straight players they went after even though they knew negotiations would be tough. So it seems reasonable to assume they really liked each of those players. That’s why I’m hopeful they will end up with a player at the 27 th pick that is better than the 27th best talent.
Me: It would seem to most Tigers fans all the drafting of pitchers in the early rounds leaves gaps in the position player ranks in the minors. You’ve been following some college catchers. Do you think Detroit goes for a catcher this year? Do you have any personal favorites?
Matt: Well, looking at what free agent pitchers cost these days, I completely understand stocking up. And whether it’s because they’ve taken a lot of pitchers or because they can’t evaluate position players as well, the Tigers are lacking in position prospects. I went through their minor league rosters the other day and there were only about five guys I felt comfortable saying would someday even make the majors, not including Santiago and Shelton in Toledo. Two of the five were outfielders, so there are definitely deficiencies in the infield.
Catching is probably where they’re weakest, but it has close competition at both third base and shortstop. However, they have a more pressing need for catchers at the major league level, so I’d be really surprised if they didn’t take advantage of what’s being called a deep class of college catchers. People will probably shake their heads and say I’m stupid, but I’m holding out hope that Matt Wieters being a Boras client allows him to slip to the Tigers in the first round. That probably won’t happen, though, so I’d look for them to snatch up a college catcher with either their first round sandwich pick or their second round pick since everybody is saying the other guys would be a reach in the first round.
After Wieters, I think I’d prefer Mitch Canham, and not just because I interviewed him. He’s a left-handed hitter, sounds like a hard worker, and he lit up the Cape Cod League last year, which is about on par with Oneonta (short season A ball) as far as the level of competition. I’ve tried to find out from some national guys if there’s that a big a difference between him, J.P. Arencibia (Tennessee), Josh Donaldson (Auburn ) and this Lecroy kid from Louisiana, but I haven’t received an answer. They are all said to have good bats for the position, but are questionable to varying degrees behind the plate.
Me: What else needs to be addressed?
Matt: I touched on this in the last question, but shortstop and third base certainly could stand to be beefed up. Ron Bourquin was the second round pick last year and we certainly shouldn’t write him off yet, but there is a major shortage of third basemen in the system. Toledo has Mike Hessman, Chris Maples and Jack Hannahan. Erie has Kody Kirkland. Lakeland had Bourquin and now has Maxwell Leon over there since Bourquin went back to extended spring training. West Michigan has Santo DeLeon and Michael Bertram. I’d say the over-under on the guys in that group who turn into even marginal major leaguers is one, and I’d bet on the under. Luckily, there are supposed to be some really good high school third basemen who might be able to help in that department.
It’s pretty ugly at shortstop for the Tigers, too. Brent Dlugach ( Erie) had never hit before this season. Miguel Linares and Mark Haske (Lakeland ) aren’t going to be the answer at the position, and Audy Ciriaco (West Michigan) is hitting terribly. He’s only 19, but he’s really been bad and he was just as bad last season in the Gulf Coast League. You might think I forgot Tony Giarratano, but I really don’t think he’ll ever be a starting shortstop even if he is able to stay healthy in the future.
Me: Have some fun. Let’s pretend it’s back to the dark ages when the Tigers drafted No. 1 or 2 because they were so bad. You can take anyone. Who do you take?
Matt: Everybody is saying David Price of Vanderbilt is a no-brainer at the first spot. If I had the second pick and the money, I think I’d go with Wieters. He’s huge, supposedly good on defense, switch-hitting and can supposedly throw in the upper 90s when he takes the mound. Combine all that with the potential for him to slide in when Pudge hangs them up and I think he’d be hard to pass up.
Me: Anything else you’d like to mention?
Matt: Baseball America did a draft projection and they had the Tigers taking Matt LaPorta, a first baseman out of Florida. They think he might slide down to the Tigers because he’s another Boras client and he might not have the defensive chops to play even first base. That prediction fit in nicely with something I noticed when I looked at the Tigers’ last ten drafts during the offseason. The Tigers have not produced a true power hitter in eons. I know Granderson is kind of looking like one this year, but I’m talking about a masher that you can just slide in at the four spot and wait for 35-40 home runs. I’d kind of like to see them take a flier on a guy they think can eventually be that player. Of course, I think that’s what they thought they were getting in Eric Munson and that didn’t work out so well.