Grady Sizemore stared at me from the cover of Sports Illustrated this afternoon. The 24-year-old Cleveland center fielder is already seen as a star, probably superstar. Tom Verducci wished to reinforce the fact.

And there are plenty of reasons why Sizemore should be seen as a star: 92 extra-base hits in 2006. A 900+ OPS. The best value-over-replacement-player total for a center fielder in 2006. Some steals. Some solid outfield play. And he seems to be a likable guy you can root for. No doubt about it, Sizemore is a good ballplayer any team would want.

He’s off to a slower start in 2007, if you look at average. But he gets on base 4 out of 10 times and has a 430 slugging. So it’s not that bad of a season.

But it got me thinking. Is there another young center fielder we know of in the American League Central? Maybe another leadoff batter like Sizemore? Maybe one starting to make the step from anonymous to star? I don’t know. There has to be somebody. Oh yes. 25-year-old Curtis Granderson of the Tigers. Maybe we know a thing or two about him.

Thirty-someodd games do not a season make. But should Granderson continue his current pace, he may be smiling back from the pages of SI soon enough. Fielding isn’t really a question, both are good. I’m just going to throw some batting numbers out there. Runs and RBIs are products of those around you, so I’m leaving them out and mixing some traditional and saber. For reference, both have the same batting average on balls in play for their careers.

Granderson vs. Sizemore, 2006

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	2Bs	3Bs	HR	Ks	steals	RC/27	EQA	VORP
Sizemore	.290	.375	.533	53	11	28	153	22	7.9	.301	69.1
Granderson	.260	.335	.438	31	9	19	174	8	7.28	.269	22.7

For Sizemore, 2006 was his second full season of MLB action. For Granderson, just the first. I’m not going to do a comparison graph, but I’ll tell you Sizemore’s first year in the league was a bit more impressive in every category than Granderson.

Granderson vs. Sizemore, 2007

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	2Bs	3Bs	HR	Ks	steals	RC/27	EQA	VORP
Sizemore	.254	.405	.432	6	0	5	35	12	8.09	.316	12.7
Granderson	.263	.328	.576	10	4	6	32	4	5.58	.301	11.6

First, it should be noted Sizemore played in 31 games, Granderson 32. Second, it’s hard to project anything this early in the season. The Indians and Tigers haven’t played a real common schedule yet, either. But, a quick glance at the quality of pitching faced by the two players shows Granderson took the more difficult path. By the way, in BP terms, an EQA of .300+ is “superstar,” so this season both guys are looking pretty good. I’d have to attribute OBP to giving Sizemore an edge in the saber stats. I didn’t chart it, but so far Sizemore has made more plays that affect the outcome of a game, according to Fangraphs.com. People do tend to remember that.

Conclusion:

When the bat hits the ball and the wheels start to turn, I think we have to put Granderson in the same sentence as Sizemore right now. He can hit for power. He can put the ball in the gaps and motor around the bases. And if Grandy can keep it up all year, there won’t be many people who don’t know his name. Sizemore has more steals, but the Tigers don’t like to hit the basepaths too hard, so I don’t see that as anything that matters.

While both strike out a lot, the big difference right now is the Indians can count on Sizemore to find other ways to get on base. Maybe he can’t keep up an OBP of .400, but he’s going to put up a better rate than Granderson for the season regardless. That’s where Grandy still has to find some improvement. But at his age and ability, I think there’s still room for him to grow.

Right now, you gotta give the edge to Sizemore. But personally, I like Granderson’s game and hope to see him in a Tigers uniform for a long, long time.

Note: After much annoyance with Wordpress’ rendering of tables, I installed WP-tables, found here. I mention this for others with the same problem.

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 10th, 2007 at 2:19 pm and is filed under 2007 season, Granderson, Sizemore. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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