Bunt Singles: May 3 edition
posted in 2007 season, bunt singles |Tigers news, notes and stats
Getting them home
Average, runs and RBIs are all overrated by traditional baseball statisticians, we know. Average because we’d rather know how often you get on base (among other reasons), and runs and RBIs because they’re a product of the batting order around the player. The four guy is going to get more chances than the nine guy. But I like to see how often players take advantage of their chances.
Right now, if you look at ESPN.com’s stats, you’ll find A-Rod’s smiling face looking at you for most RBIs in baseball with 34. But you get a different picture when you look at bit deeper. Baseball Prospectus keeps track of others-batted-in. RBIs minus homers, basically. If they used headshots, you’d find Magglio Ordonez’ curly locks sitting next to a crisp 22 for tops.
But that’s still a product of lineup, right? Compare the two in percentages driven home, Maggs has 73% from third and 23.6% overall, while A-Rod rates pretty good at 22.2%. They rank 8th and 12th in all of baseball. Placido Polanco is 21st with 20.9% and 62.5% of runners on third base. And, get this, Craig Monroe got home 8 of 11 runners on third when he stood at the plate. (See all Tigers) Sean Casey is just bad this year, 0-for-7 getting runners home from third and just 4% overall.
Win Probability Subtracted
Win Probability Added, which can be founded listed at Fangraphs, measures when guys do things that benefit or take away from a team’s chances of winning. Then it adds all those little fractions up. More points are given for high leverage situations. Here’s a primer.
A glance at the Tigers batters shows only a few are carrying the offense — Polanco (1.50), Ordonez (1.36), Thames (.48) and Monroe (.07). The rest do things that take away from the chances of winning. And this is an additive stat, so Thames is doing his share from the bench. While I think this is sort of an intuitive stat, seeing Craig Monroe and his million strikeouts in the positive surprised me some.
The pitchers are doing well, led by Nate Robertson. Starter Chad Durbin and reliever Fernando Rodney are among the worst.
Mesa pitches well in Toledo
This actually occurred Tuesday and I’m late to the party. Jose Mesa faced eight batters and pitched two innings in less than 25 pitches in his Toledo rehab start. He struck out one and allowed two hits.
Tigers eye Lawrence?
News sources report the Tigers are interested in Brian Lawrence, free agent and former Rocky. Lawrence is trying to come back from surgery on his pitching shoulder, and supposedly three teams are interested in him.
I don’t really see the point in winning that battle. He was pedestrian in Colorado San Diego and the injury couldn’t have helped matters. He’s not overpowering even when healthy. There’s little reason to bother.
I just have to quote Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA card on him because I liked the phrase.
His decline accelerated in 2005, as Lawrence was torched like a Parisian sedan by hitters all over the league
Vasquez still awesome in Toledo
I predicted/hoped Virgil Vasquez would be a call-up if Chad Durbin stumbled. Here’s a look at him so far in Toledo. I’d much rather take a look at Vasquez in the majors than go out and sign Lawrence.
- He pitched a third scoreless game in four last night, going seven innings and striking out seven while allowing five hits. He did have his first multi-walk game since the opener, giving up two.
While not overpowering either, Vasquez is crafty and picking up a lot of strikeouts, 41 in 35 innings now with eight walks.
Bunt singles
- Jim Leyland has a sixth sense (Mlive)
- Bobby Seay is making the best of his chance. (Freep)
- Eric looks at the AL Central race. (Dtown Baseball)
- Jason Beck reports Felix Hernandez’ first start following his injury will be gainst the Tigers Wednesday.
- Also I’m late in linking this, Bonderman has a blister. (Beck)
- Samara has the best broom picture. (Roar of the Tigers)
- And she has photos from Sunday.