Cold as Ice: April is in the books
posted in 2007 season, Q&A |It was cold. They were cold. That pretty much sums up the first month of baseball for the Detroit Tigers. And yet nearly a sixth of the way through the season, the Tigers are sitting at 14-11 in a tie for second place without the batters hitting particularly well or the bullpen pitching all that well. And then the starters stumbled, too. It was a roller coaster of emotions that saw the Tigers play in 12 one-run games and seven extra-innings games.
Looking at the record won’t tell us much. Over the course of a month, a bounce here, a bounce there, and the team could be in first or fourth. So here’s my breakdown of things.
Hitting
The Tigers finished the month with 127 runs, putting them firmly in third in the American League. If you’re looking back from the future, you’re saying “That sounds like a pretty good month at the dish to me. What’s the big deal?”
The big deal is Sean Casey, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe all finished with averages .200 or less. Excluding Casey, Sheffield’s slugging was among the lowest on the team. So to score all those runs with that going on was really something. On top of it, the scoring wasn’t real consistent. For a period of time, the Tigers could barely score four runs in a game. After the weather heated up, the team has been putting up seven, eight, nine spots.
Obviously, something must be going very right elsewhere in the lineup, and it is. Placido Polanco is third in the A.L. in batting average (.356) and his on-base-percentage on the Tigers is only third. Carlos Guillen is quietly having another good season. It’s easy to see why he’s overlooked by the national media when you realize his OPS is .863 and you didn’t even notice him doing it. And then we have Magglio Ordonez having his best month as a Tiger, getting on base nearly 9 times per 20 plate appearances while slugging .600.
If you’re looking for any flukes in the Tigers success, you probably won’t find it in these three guys. Maggs looks healthy and like the feared slugger he was expected to be, though I would point out it’s pretty hard to keep up those high of numbers, so he’ll fade some. Placido has faded a wee bit already but is a real contact guy who should keep a high average. And Guillen is really doing nothing he hasn’t done for years.
Surprises? Curtis Granderson hit the weight room more than he let on. His slugging of .525 looks real. He’s driving the ball real well, has 10 doubles, two triples, four homers.
As a team, on base percentage is up. It’s not top-of-the-league, but the slugging makes up for that. They’re taking a lot more walks than last season. And at times, they have looked very patient at the plate and worked a lot of pitches out of opposing starters. After a month, I have to say, I expect some good things on this end. I think they’ll score more than most people expected.
Pitching
The month started out ominously when the Tigers rallied against Toronto in the first game, but the bullpen couldn’t contain the Blue Jays and Detroit lost in extra innings. After a full season of coming to expect “If it gets to the bullpens, we win,” that was a bit unexpected. But Toronto could hit. Unfortunately, that did portend the future. So far, the Tigers bullpen just isn’t as good as last season. The starters have been as good as advertised, collecting just three losses among the five.
Jeremy Bonderman still looks the ace, Justin Verlander is continuing where he left off last year — more or less — Nate Robertson remains one of the league’s top lefties, Mike Maroth is pitching a bit more mediocre, but not unexpected for a fourth/fifth starter. And then there’s the Chad Durbin saga. Durbin was awful to start, but settled in his last two starts and looked fine against Chicago through eight innings. Whether he’ll still have his job at the end of May remains to be seen, but he’s shown some promise in turning things around. The Tigers started have made it six innings while allowing three or less runs 15 of 25 times this season. Verlander has done it four of five times. Robertson, too, and he fell an out short the fifth. Bonderman has done it four of six times. Even Maroth has two quality starts. Starters have gone 151 innings and have a 3.87 ERA.
The bullpen? Oy the bullpen. Eight of 11 Tigers losses come from it. Four are Fernando Rodney’s. Todd Jones has two blown saves, and so does Joel Zumaya as a setup man. Those are the three guys who make this bullpen work, so that has to be ironed out for Detroit to find continued success. Bobby Seay is pitching fine as a lefty specialist. Wil Ledezma and Jason Grilli have to iron some things out. Aqualino Lopez was just a stop-gap while Jose Mesa, who stunk, healed his groin on the disabled list.
My gut feeling is the bullpen won’t be as good as 2006, but it won’t be as bad as April. I think the starting pitching will continue to give Detroit a chance to win in nearly every game.
Q&A
Pitcher of the month? As much as I’d like to say Bonderman — especially after his amazing showdown with Doc Halladay — I have to take Robertson. His 2.43 ERA, low WHIP and nearly perfect 5-for-5 on quality starts gives him the edge in a three-pitcher showdown.
Batter of the month? Magglio. Gotta be. He’s kicking the ball’s butt right now. Polly is a close second. He’s not only making contact, he’s setting up Maggs for the RBIs and getting on base in “clutch” situations.
Best surprise? I’d have to say it’s Magglio Ordonez regaining form. That has been key so far. Also, Detroit continuing to play well from behind and win in the ninth. That could have been a one-year fluke but doesn’t appear to be.
Worst surprise? The bullpen’s stumbles were totally unexpected, not fun to watch at all and truly disappointing. Sheffield’s slow start wasn’t too good either, but he found ways to get on base, fortunately.
Worst move? Starting Sean Casey. I guess that dates back to signing Sean Casey. The Mayor is a great guy, a popular figure, and he plays decent defense, but he’s not getting the job done at the dish and he likely won’t. First base isn’t a defense position, it’s a hitting position, and he’s not doing it. Runner up: Putting Zumaya into games he doesn’t need to be in, both of which he imploded and which started the ball rolling on his problems.
Best move? Teaching Thames first base, I guess. That’s not really an April thing, of course, but it was nice to see him get a couple good chances there. I’d like to see a lot more of him. I’m not really finding a lot else that qualifies.
What’s on the horizon? May sees the Tigers play a mixed schedule. The first 10 days are against weaker opponents, Baltimore, K.C. and Seattle. It heats up May 11 with a trip to the HHH Dome in Minnesota, then they’ll have a possible October preview during a four-game series at Boston. I always love games at Fenway for the thunk of lines off the Green Monster. Mid month sees a World Series rematch with St. Louis and another possible October preview when the Angels visit Comerica. The Tigers finally see Cleveland at last, late in the month. . They’ll face a tougher Tampa offense, but should beat up the defense.
Final thoughts? April didn’t start out as we might have hoped, but nothing too bad happened in the season’s first month. The Tigers are in the thick of a tough division while not looking all that great. If they turn it around, and I think they will, they’ll add a couple more games over .500 as the season progresses.
*stats gathered at ESPN.com
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Nice review of April.
Think again on batter of the month. No knock on Magglio, but Polanco was carrying the team before Ordonez got hot the last haff, and he kept it up all month. Not just making contact and getting on base, but driving in runs, winning games, and setting up game-winners. Polanco was outrageously good with a runner or runners on base, best on the team.
Thanks for commenting.
Polanco was good with runners on. But so was Magglio.
Per Baseball Prospectus numbers updated May 1, Polanco had driven in 21% of runners on base, Magglio 24%. Maggs drove in 73% of runners on third, Polly 62.5%.
A trip to Fangraphs gives a slight edge to Polly for win probability added, but that’s close too.
I think it’s really a call that could go either way, neither has an open and shut case.