SI: Tigers not playoff bound; prediction roundup
posted in 2007 season, projections |The thing about predictions is, they’re almost like a process of elimination. That’s the way I like to see it. Because when you look back at predictions when any sports season is over, it turns out what everyone thought months earlier was wrong. Take for example, Sports Illustrated last year. (Hat-tip Motown Tigers). Or The Hardball Times. Or ESPN. Point is, they say a lot of things that, in retrospect, we find silly. So I just assume they’re silly and meaningless to start. The teams picked to win never do, so it’s better not to be one of them.
Anyway that long introduction was my way of pointing out, Sports Illustrated picked the Tigers to be pretty good, but not division winner good. And not wildcard “winner” good. Just good. Here’s the team preview to go with the predicted standings linked earlier. (Here is SI’s Tigers fantasy preview, too).
Of course, all things considered, SI was pretty fair. Their concern is not so much the team as it is now, just that it could suffer breakdowns along the way.
Now Detroit has no apparent weaknesses, only concerns. One is injury. Shortstop Carlos Guillen, for instance, played 153 games last season but averaged only 112 in the previous two years with Detroit, and Dombrowski acknowledges that another injury to Guillen would spell trouble given the Tigers’ shallow bench.
The other concern is that the big load carried by the young pitchers in ‘06 will catch up to them.
“It’s a concern,” Dombrowski says, “but we’re not overly concerned.”
Why should they be? No other AL team enters 2007 with established players at every spot on the field and in the rotation, and three closer-caliber relievers. And no other team has Sheffield.
So it’s more building in some hypotheticals, which is fair, I guess, as oftentimes you think “Yah, on paper that may be the best team, but let’s see what happens when there’s some injuries.”
Detroit’s fine. I’m actually relieved not to see them picked.
Some other feedback on predictions:
The truth of the matter is, and I’ve been thinking this as I read all sorts of projections, all teams in the Central not from Kansas City have a legitimate shot at taking the division.
Overall they are optimistic for the Tigers which I’m not too overly use to
Detroit Tiger Tales‘ Lee started his season prediction as well. Part 1 is posted.
Along with the addition of a hopefully healthy Sheffield, the keys to the season will be a repeat performance from the pitching staff and, as always, good health. Playing in the tough American League central division does not allow a lot of room for error but I believe there is reason for optimism.
But Lee is saving his wins prediction for last, so you’ll have to keep checking in with him!