PECOTA projections: Win, Lose or Draw?
posted in projections |One of the more interesting inclusions in the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA system (wiki link) is the prediction whether a player will improve greatly, improve a bit, take a step backwards or see his playing time cut substantially. As Lee at Tiger Tales pointed out, last year it predicted breakout years for a few Tigers, and the BP people had a lot of faith in Detroit having a good season.
A breakout is defined as surpassing your previous three years by more than 20%. An improvement is defined as surpassing those years at all. Meanwhile, a collapse is a 20% dropoff.
So what does PECOTA see for the Tigers? First, let’s see pitching.
As Lee pointed out, young Jeremy Bonderman is almost a lock to have a better season than his previous three. Not a big surprise. He also is almost 50/50 to have a breakout year. Reliever Jason Grilli is surprisingly near Bonderman in both projections. Will Ledezma, Zach Miner and Nate Robertson should also see improvement over their three-year averages. (I see that as signifcantly less meaningful for Ledezma and Miner, who saw his first major league action last year). Along with Fernando Rodney, these mark the Tigers most likely to step up. It’s a good mix of starters and relievers, I’d say. (For argument’s sake, Maroth is also largely in the improve category and will quite likely earn back his starting job).
Meanwhile, Joel Zumaya, Justin Verlander and, especially, Kenny Rogers may take a step forward, but are at least as likely to take a step backwards from 2006 as well. With Verlander and his large inning jump, I see that as possible. With Rogers, it’s harder to say. He had always seen a second-half dropoff in Texas, and that dropoff was not experienced in Detroit. So, what do we expect for 2007? Will Rogers see that dropoff? Or will he continue to pitch for a full season like 2006? I do think there’s a chance Rogers is going to come down from that great 2006 year, but as a finesse guy, I think his dropoff won’t be as great. I’m not sure why it sees a step back for Zumaya.
Rogers and Todd Jones could see their playing time decrease due to injuries.
I guess I’d have to rate the pitching a draw, some improvement, some steps backwards. But Bonderman a definite win. If he’s indeed made the mental growth to go with his physical abilities, we may be in for one of the best pitching years in Tigers history during my frame of reference. (Which, to be fair, isn’t all that hard to do). Should be fun to watch either way.
How about the batters?
Well, there’s no real winners there. The ones most likely to have breakout performances aren’t even Tigers starters and may not even make the 25-man roster. Some had bad years and could bounce back. I’m looking at you, Neifi. (Fortunately it also sees his playing time decrease. Maybe the statistical program hasn’t spoken with Jim Leyland). Some just don’t play much. (Infante, Santiago).
The good news is there’s no real losers there either. Most batters have about equal chance of showing improvements as they do of showing decreases in their performance. It’s just not real interesting to look at. The only real guys outside that, among starters, are Curtis Granderson, who should show continued improvement. And as has been noted, Gary Sheffield is rather disliked by the system and could take a step back. (I don’t see it). Otherwise, your guess is as good as PECOTA’s is as good as mine.
So batting is most definitely a draw. Which isn’t too bad when you consider most parts of the lineup could put runs on the board with just one swing, and, hopefully anyway, Sheffield far surpasses PECOTA’s best guess.
So, there you have it. Your 2007 Tigers per PECOTA: Not much better. Not much worse. Not bad for a team that went to the World Series. Of course, Cleveland has improved. Kansas City probably has. Minnesota probably hasn’t, nor have the White Sox. So treading water in the tough A.L. Central is not necessarily a guarantee of future returns.
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