Tigers grades: Run Scoring
posted in 2006-07 offseason, Analysis, Random |Okay. I’m doing this on the fly. But like I said, I’m just going to primarily grade different aspects of the team rather than individual players, that way we get a better feel of what can be sacrificed a bit to make which improvements.
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Run Scoring: B-
Run scoring wasn’t a problem for the Tigers, per se. When you look up the final product, you see a respectable 822. That’s not bad. True, it wasn’t the Yankees. Or White Sox. Or Blue Jays. Or Indians. Okay… so it wasn’t that great. There weren’t many holes in the lineup, but there weren’t a lot of highlights in the lineup either. It was mostly above average but not much on the strong side of the scale. They got the job done, though.
Except for that month…and a half… and World Series. Still, a B is above average. But it’s also a sign there’s work left to be done. You’d have to have navy blue blinders not to notice, Detroit needs to diversify the threats of its offense and be able to score with a bit more consistency, say, 5 runs a game rather than 7 followed by 3.
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Team Power: A-
Detroit hit for power. Boy did it ever! The team finished third in homers in the American League at 202. It got 20+ from Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, Magglio Ordonez. It got 19 from Carlos Guillen and Curtis Granderson. Basically, a home run was possible from anywhere in the lineup other than Placido Polanco.
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Individual Power: B-
Therein lies the problem. Detroit didn’t have a break in the lineup, but it didn’t have that one batter who makes opposing fans quake in their boots. 19 American Leaguers finished with more home runs than Craig Monroe (28), the Tigers biggest home run threat. So, while collectively, Detroit had a lot of moderate power-hitters, on an individual basis, it had none. Maybe Chicago was hording them, two White Sox had 40+ homers, another came in at 30+. (That’s my benchmark for both categories).
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Team Hacking: D+
A lot has been made of the Tigers’ hacking ways. And yeah, you can’t exactly oppose that. The OBP? .329. 12th of 14 AL clubs. Of course, if Detroit got on base 10 more times per 1000 opportunities, they’d have been smack in the middle of the league. So besides the 12 ranking? where does this woeful reputation come from? Fear of the Walk. Detroit finished 13th and not even close to the middle in this stat. Oh, and strikeouts? 13th again, or about 250 more Ks than the AL-leading Twins.
To recap, that’s strikeouts, F, walks, F, OBP, D+.
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Individual hacking: C
But again, team stats may not be a great indicator… although at times, it is. Curtis Granderson was obviously among the worst offenders, gobbling up 15% of the team’s strikeouts by himself. As the leadoff batter. Brandon Inge and Craig Monroe both took about 10%. And Chris Shelton, who may or may not have a future in Detroit certainly doesn’t without improvement, added another 10% of the strikeouts. So that’s nearly half by 4 of nine regular batters. Okay, so maybe it does paint a fair picture! The walk frightened everyone but Granderson and Carlos Guillen.
The anti-hacker was Placido Polanco, who struck out, like, almost never. Sean Casey, known for his patience, would have had about 60 for a full season, not too bad. Guillen, obviously, was the anti-hack. The switch hitter got on base 40% of the time, walked a team-high 71… and struck out with about average regularity.
- Shooting Ducks on the pond: C
Images that haunt us: Bases loaded. No outs. Maybe even 1 out. But specifically, no outs. Middle of the lineup coming. And HOLY CRAP, THEY DON’T SCORE. Three come to mind: One, against Boston in August. No outs. Tigers lose. Two, against Kansas City in September with the division on the line. Pudge up to bat. One out I think. Tigers lose. Three, against St. Louis in the World Series, game two, no outs. No runs. Tigers… win? Strange. The KC one haunts us the most, of course. But that brings up the point. I’m sure every team does this from time to time, but I have no clue how many more leave runners in scoring position with fighting regularity.
- Individual target practice: C
The best Tigers at getting in runners? No longer Tigers. Matt Stairs (small sample). Sean Casey. (bigger sample). Third best? Ordonez drove in 19% of runners on base, 25% if one was on second, 40% if one was on third. That’s probably a B+. Polanco is Magg’s equal, but he drove in fewer runners from first, presumably because he can’t hit the long ball like Maggs. Most guys with many chances had about a 33% success rate for getting a run in from third and less than 25% (usually closer to 20%) from second.
- Team speed: C
This is one of those categories where giving a grade doesn’t matter as much. Tigers team speed? Not so much. Tigers need for team speed? Not so much. But when the hammy-hindered shortstop leads the team with 20, it’s a bonus if you can add some.
- By position
Catcher: B — Catchers aren’t asked to do much. Detroit has a Hall of Famer who drove in runs as consistently as Guillen. He struck out too much, yadayada, he’s a catcher. Not a bad position. Backup Vance Wilson had a great year when he managed to get Pudge to take a day off.
First base: C- D+ — It’s not that your first baseman must fit the prototype: Slugger who can’t field. But your first baseman has got to be a quality batter who stands in the middle of your lineup. Chris Shelton looked like the kind of first baseman you love. Then he stopped hitting. Sean Casey looked like, well, I’m not exactly sure. But at least he drove some runs in. In any case, this is a position to upgrade.
Second base: B- — I say B with this being the specific reason: Polanco to the Tigers is an A even if his stats look middle of the line. When Polanco wasn’t in the lineup, we cringed. Whether he was so useful for the Tigers because he was a contact batter with some patience, or whether he is truly a better batter than his stats would indicate to outsiders, I’m not sure. But the starter isn’t the problem and he’s a needed contributer. Just needs a quality backup.
Shortstop: A — Guillen was a great run producer, A+, second best VORP in the AL for SS, a guy who got on base, a guy who’s gonna cost a fortune. His backup stinks at the plate. Like with second base, wouldn’t hurt to upgrade the backup.
Third base: C+ — Not really the power you’d expect of a corner infielder. Not really the on-base percentage to make up for it. A solid batter, but a contributer to the hacking problem. Offensively, you would like better production, but if you look at the big picture, I don’t make a change.
Left Field: B — Both Marcus Thames and Craig Monroe played pretty nicely here, hit for power, suffered the same hacking problems, but put up very nice production. Not a problem going forward either.
Center Field: B- — Going backwards, center field had a hacking problem. Going forward, Granderson seemed to be putting it together and didn’t share CF very much with others. Not the best center field batter out there but I wouldn’t want to trade him for many others.
Right Field: B — Ordonez mostly played here. The backups were obviously a dropoff. Magglio was a high second tier at the position. There were some great ones. There were some blah ones. But Magglio came in near the top after a sizable dropff from Jermain Dye/Vlad Guerrera/(sometime CF Ichiro).
Designated hitter: C- — Another position you expect either a slugger or a consistent hitter. Detroit mixed its DH up quite a bit over the course of the year. If Thames hit like Thames and played the position the whole year, he’d have rated quite well but still no higher than a bit above average. As it is, the position was such a mish-mash and then Thames saw a dropoff and then things got worse. It was below average at best for the final two months. So it’s a hard one. I just went with C-: average and you want more.
- Conclusions:
The Tigers have an offense that doesn’t need a lot of tinkering in the offseason. It does need some tinkering by the hitting coach (Don Slaught) to improve the eyes of the batters, maybe get a few more walks and a few less strikeouts. I think Granderson’s natural improvement will be in that area. As well, Monroe and especially Inge actually had worse years to that extent than in the past. So you hope for them to bounce back. So yeah, I do think we’ll see improvement.
On the other hand, I think Detroit needs two new batters with more patience. Honestly, I don’t think they need to get that big bat people talk about. But they need to get a few quality bats, low strikeouts, moderate walks at least, and who can drive in the run. DH, OF, 1B, I don’t care where. Ideally you upgrade all three with two personnel additions by getting a new first baseman, moving Magglio to DH and getting an outfielder of moderate ability (a step up defensiely, in other words) and some patience at the plate to mix things up. Maybe a lefty. I haven’t looked over free agent and trade targets to find the best possibilities. But you do need to make two changes.
The Tigers offense: Pretty good. Fun to watch. Frightening to watch. Needs improvement but it’s close. Anyway, that’s how I feel right now. All offers subject to change upon availability.
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