World Series: No DH? No problem!
posted in Analysis, Random, World Series |Traditionally, the National League is seen as gaining a bit of an advantage when it hosts World Series games (and in interleague) because the American League loses its designated hitter. On many, or most, AL teams, that’s one of the top run producers, someone in the meat of the lineup. After all, you don’t DH a guy who can’t hit if you’ve got other options. So AL managers are left with the decision, ‘Do I play my DH in the field so I keep his bat in the lineup, or do I give up my hitter for defense?’ Well, they usually play first base anyway, so it’s not a big deal, it’s not a real important defensive position. But, it still leaves the AL team a bit weaker than normal. Another problem, with all the switches for the bullpen, the NL uses pitchers a bit more. So NL-rules teams need good bullpens.
The other point of interest is some AL managers might not be as strategically prepared as their NL counterparts for the intricacies of the double-switch and losing your starting pitcher after five innings because you need a hit with two runners on and your pitcher up to bat.
But those things don’t seem to be the case with the Tigers in this particular World Series. For one, Jim Leyland loves that NL junk. He made his name as an NL manager, and won the World Series as an NL manager. He may have forgot a thing or two — doubt it! — but NL rules aren’t going to be a problem.
And for two, I think the Tigers actually gain an advantage over the Cardinals by moving to an NL park, especially right now. Detroit does not have a traditional DH. There’s no big bat who can’t field stashed away at DH. In fact, it was DH-by-committee in Tigertown this year. In the playoffs alone, four batters have started as DH for the Tigers: Marcus Thames, Alexis Gomez, Omar Infante and Sean Casey. During the regular season, Matt Staris, Craig Monroe and Dmitri Young also recieved more than 10 starts as DH. The season OPS for the ‘position’ was just .768. So the Tigers aren’t exactly losing there. The best-producing DH? Monroe. And he’s the every day left fielder. He played DH while recovering from an injury in June.
Leyland had been using the DH rule during the World Series to rest first baseman Casey, while playing a weak-hitting shortstop. Basically, it left a hole in the lineup for the Tigers, while the Cardinals could take advantage of the DH to add an extra batter. So, actually, the Tigers are gaining by losing the DH. Casey moves from DH to first base. Carlos Guillen moves from first base the short stop. (And don’t kid yourself, he can play the position just fine, that splendid Tigers defensive efficiency comes with him the everyday shortstop). And Ramon Santiago, who’d been batting at No. 9, returns to the bench. It was almost as if Detroit was batting with a pitcher in their lineup having Santiago out there. He was 1-for-12 in the postseason and had an OBP of .244 in the regular season. So, no loss there.
Now it’s even. Detroit has a pitcher at the No. 9-hole. St. Louis has a pitcher at the No. 9 hole. Fair enough. Theirs can bat a bit better probably, but it’s not real significant.
One point I will concede is that the Tigers haven’t had a lot of luck with pinch hitters. Even though Alexis Gomez was the star of an ALCS game and Marcus Thames has 26 homers, don’t look for any advantage there. And those are about only guys you want pinch hitting.
And what about the NL being a league that requires a good bullpen to deal with all the pitching changes? That’s also not a problem. Detroit had a 3.54 bullpen ERA during the regular season. St. Louis has half a run worse (4.06). St. Louis did show an improvement in the playoffs (2.95, 9.5 k/9). But so did Detroit (1.95 ERA) — and the Tigers did that against the Yankees’ lineup and with top reliever Joel Zumaya sidelined for the ALCS. So, it seems to me, conservatively, St. Louis has no bullpen advantage. In all likelyhood, Detroit’s advantage is pretty good.
So, from what I can tell, moving to an NL park with NL rules for three days? It probably works in Detroit’s favor.
No DH? No problem!
Sphere It
I wasn’t worried about the loss of DH, and now I know why. Thanks!
OT, but after lurking around Bilfer and Brian’s blogs for the past few years, I was pleased when I found yours this year. Excellent writing skills and analysis make it one of my favorites. Thanks for adding your voice, and what a year to do it!
Thanks for the kind words, don, glad you enjoy it!
i welcome this idea of no designated hitter, strange things happen in the world series! maybe one of the tigers pitchers goes 2 for 4 with an rbi single? most of the time it’s just a sure and quick out for both teams. either way i look for our tigers to wrap this up in six games. GO TIGERS!