ALCS Preview 3: The Players
posted in Oakland A's, Power rankings |Here’s a breakdown position-by-position, the way I see things. You’ll notice it’s a bit different at times than other places.
Pudge Rodriguez vs. Jason Kendall
Better defensively? Pudge, of course. But Kendall’s no slouch. Better offensively? Right now, you gotta take Kendall. It’s nice to remember Pudge’s heroics in 2003 with the Marlins. But it would be nicer for him to create some heroics for the Tigers in 2006. He didn’t contribute a lot to the offensive success Detroit found against the Yankees, and that was inferior pitching. Until Pudge steps up, I’m calling this an approximate wash.
Sean Casey vs. Nick Swisher
My gut says Swisher. Maybe it’s for his hoedown celebrations with Milton Bradley and 35 homers in the regular season. But let’s not sell Sean Casey short here. He didn’t have a real great September, but you couldn’t ask for much more production than he gave against the Yankees: .882 OPS, three doubles, four RBIs. But across the field, Swisher had a .917 OPS. Gotta side with Swisher.
Placido Polanco vs. D’Angelo Jiminez
Mark Ellis might have been a better matchup. He still would have been the worse second baseman of the two, however. D’Angelo Jiminez might be closer comparable to Ramon Santiago than to Omar Infante, even if he’s batting more like Neifi Perez. Polly outclasses him on the field and at the plate. There’s some hoo-ha posted about Jiminez batting well against the Tigers, but against the pitchers he’ll be facing, Jones is the only one he’s seen before (that I can find) and he’s 0-2. Polly wins by a lap.
Carlos Guillen vs. Marco Scutaro
You gotta like Scutaro. You really do, even if he does something good against the Tigers. You want Scutaro hanging around. But he pales in comparison to Carlos Guillen, who is pretty much in Derek Jeter territory when you look at his numbers (.320/.400/.519) and the plays he can make on the field. Scooter’s probably not going to make the bungles Guillen does, but he’s not going to make the flash either. Carlos takes this one, but you will find yourself liking his counter part.
Brandon Inge vs. Eric Chavez
People are going to want to give this one to Chavvy. And no doubt, he is a great fielder and a big part of Oakland’s success. In the ALDS, Chavez had a home run for his only RBI, but he also struck out four times in 10 at-bats. Inge, well, was terrible in the ALDS at the plate and had six strikeouts in 15 at-bats. I’ll edge with Chavez, but Inge won’t be outclassed.
Craig (Hedonitagin!) Monroe vs. Jay Payton
Jay Payton really annoyed me during the regular season. I think he beat the Tigers two or three times. He’s a good contact guy, a pretty good hitter, a pretty good fielder. But Craig Monroe is clutch if anyone is (and there is such a thing). And as we’ve seen, he’s pretty adept with the glove. I’ve seen some people giving the edge here to Payton, and if you want to, I’m not going to stop you, but to me it is, at minimum, a tie. At best Monroe wins that matchup.
Curtis Granderson vs. Mark Kotsay
Curtis Granderson is the key to the Tigers’ success, I’ve said all along. When he has success, they do. He’s great in center field, makes some really nice plays, came up huge against the Yankees, and, apparently, gets no respect. Kotsay is pretty uknown, but a solid fielderi in his own rate, and the keystone of a fine defensive outfield. That’s all fine. But Granderson has the edge in VORP (23.4-8.9), errors (1-3), EQA (.258-.246), fielding runs above average (17 to (minus)-8). Baseball Prospectus adds: “Granderson has shown much better range than was initially expected of him from scouts, but if it ever comes up, he can be run on; in contrast, Kotsay has a reputation for sound play and a better arm.” To me, Granderson wins this matchup.
Magglio Ordonez vs. Milton Bradley
Bradley didn’t have a real hot ALDS. Still, he’s a good player. He’ll bounce back and give the A’s better production. Magglio Ordonez will have to continue to hit well for Detroit. Bradley is a better fielder, but Ordonez isn’t as bad as he could be. If you only get to pick one of these guys for your team, it’s Ordonez.
Marcus Thames vs. Frank Thomas
Frank Thomas is MVP calibre. Marcus Thames, while a lot of fun and pretty productive, is not. So I’m just gonna have to take Thomas on this one. Pretty easy pick there. You’d want him on the Tigers, that’s for sure.
Neither team really wants to write home about its bench. The A’s probably have a better one, if you’re asking.
I gave Thomas, Swisher and Chavez clear advantages over their Tigers counterparts. I gave the Kendall-Pudge matchup and Monroe-Payton matchups a push. I gave Guillen, Polanco and Ordonez and Granderson the advantages.
Baseball Prospectus writer Christina Kahrl has this as a close series, just as I and pretty much everyone else says. I disagree with a few points here and there, but in the end we agree.
Sphere ItSo it’s a close series on the face of it, and in a close series, improbable and permanently depressing little things can come up and bite you. A’s fans have learned to fear unlikely heroes on other people’s teams, and I guess I look at the fact that Polanco’s gone 19-for-37 against the four A’s starters, and I just expect that he’ll be enough of a pest to become an honorary Hatcher, joining Billy and Mickey in the history of East Bay villains. I’ll make a guess that Polanco’s going to become a household name, and spray singles all series. Expect one A’s game-winning rally off of Jones and one blowout win, pitching gems from Zito and Bonderman.
