Good advice from Knobler, and BP on playoff rotations
posted in Analysis, Random, Sabermetrics, link roundup |DETROIT — After 19 years, what’s one more week?
What’s seven days when you’ve already waited 6,923 days?
So try to enjoy this week, the last one before the Detroit Tigers’ first post-season game since Oct. 12, 1987. And don’t fret too much about the American League Central Division race.
That’s Danny Knobler’s advice in Booth Newspapers and on MLive today. I don’t know if it’s needed. But if anyone needs to hear it, I endorse it. It’s still a pennant race, and it’s fun. I was checking Twins scores like mad last night. But I am thankful to have the stress-free safety net of the playoffs either way.
Knobler also observed something clicked in the players’ heads last week, and I thought this myself but only having games on TV, you can’t really tell.
That White Sox series was the most important one the Tigers played this year, and the first game was the most important game the Tigers won all year.
The Wednesday game was the second-most important, because it gave the Tigers a six-game lead with 10 games to play. In the clubhouse that night, you could feel that the tension had lifted. The Tigers had to wait four more days to pour champagne, but Wednesday was the night the playoff spot was basically clinched.
It’s not that I think you throw out the results of the past eight weeks, or cherry pick the good parts. But the way the pitching held up — mostly — through the struggles and the batting has come back just makes me think we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on the cloud of August. The playoffs are a new ballgame, and the Tigers seem to be playing exactly as you’d hope they would heading into them. For me, it’s all cheers and smiles right now. Time to savor this, because there’s at most a month left of baseball.
Baseball Prospectus writer Nate Silver notes power pitches — high strikeout rates, low walk rates, high groundball to flyball ratio — are most successful in the playoffs, and he projected playoff ERAs based on that theory. Based on this, and the percentage of time starters will likely see action, he finds Detroit’s playoff rotation will be the second-worst in the MLB playoffs at 4.14, ahead of Oakland’s 4.23. This is built mainly on the theory finesse pitcher Kenny Rogers will get creamed (4.64 ERA) and power-pitcher Jeremy Bonderman will have great numbers at number three (3.16 ERA). The numbers would look better if the starting positions were reversed.
Indeed, a recurring theme for the Tigers is whether Leyland will deploy his personnel correctly, which in an ideal world would mean that Bonderman and Kenny Rogers would swap places and Joel Zumaya would inherit the closer’s job.
Nate Robertson clocks in at 4.23 and Justin Verlander at 4.34. While certainly there’s basis for this article, I don’t know if Tigers fans would quite agree with that assessment based on what we’ve seen lately. I’m not sure if he even agrees.
One problem with a quick-and-dirty metric is that it’s, well, quick and dirty. Although strikeout rate is not very dependent on park effects, it is dependent on league effects, and the National League teams should probably be docked 10-15 points because they don’t have to face DHs. Either way, there is no clearly dominant group of playoff starters this year, but the Astros, Phillies and Twins come closest.
The Phillies have the best team ERA (3.75) behind No. 1 starter, rookie Cole Hamels. That’s what makes me say “It’s great in theory, and I’m sure is even somewhat reflected by what will happen, but you gotta add the real world still,” and wouldn’t want to bet the farm on a rookie starting my playof rotation.
What do you think?
A glance at the offseason
It’s early, but since the talk is starting, may as well banter a bit, hey?
SI’s article on A-Rod that the Tigers might be a possible suitor if he ends up on the market. The LA teams are supposed to be most interested. In theory, it makes sense to me. I like A-Rod. He’s a good player, he would probably look fine in a Tigers uniform, he would probably be better off outside that NY spotlight, but I don’t see it happening, and who knows how chemistry would work with that level of superstar.
Detroit is also said to be checking in on the Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez. As much as we’ve heard the Tigers need a quality DH/1B. (via Cutoff Man)
Barry Bonds is returning in 2007 and likes the Tigers as a possible new team. The LA Times reports they and the Yankees are said to be his only non-West Coast choices. That’s a nice compliment. Not gonna hold my breath on the matter. Haven’t even formed an opinion. (via Ben Maller’s rumors)
I’d still more likely prefer Carlos Lee and move Magglio to DH, or Miggy Tejada and move Carlos Guillen to 1B. Lee seems to like the Rangers (Maller link).
Sphere It
AROD to Detroit…hmmm. At first read that sounds like a huge upgrade to the team, as you know that you will get MVP caliber numbers out of him each year. While the numbers may be good, I would be nervous about his prescence in the clubhouse would affect the “team mentality” that Detroit seems to have built this year offensively. It has been said AROD is all about his numbers (SI last week), which could have a big effect on the mental make up of the clubhouse.
As for the Barry Bonds rumor…I would hate to see him in a Tiger uniform. I would have a very difficult time cheering for him, and although he is still a great hitter, I would worry about his health and the negative impact he would have on the clubhouse as he is a well known prima donna.
With all that being said, I do believe that the club will need to look at making some offensive upgrades in the offseason, especially at first base.
I like your idea in the last paragraph. Every time I see a ball hit to right while Mags is out there I actually cringe. He makes a lot of plays, but I keep waiting for him to have Jose Canseco moment out there.
The idea I’ve been kicking around in my head is a blockbuster. This trade addresses four (presumed) facts. 1) The 2008 Tigers outfield is Clevelan, Maybin, Granderson. 2) Maggs has been good, but not great in Detroit. 3) Tigers hired Maggs to be great. 4)Maggs has a bad contract as compared with his actual production.
What I propose is essentially a Maggs for Manny Rameriez trade. This trade addresses the four facts listed above. 1)Manny would DH, the 2007 outfield would be Monroe, Granderson, and Thames. Thames and Monroe would be shipped out after 2007 as the (likely) enter the decline phase of their careers. 2 and 3)Manny has been great and should continue to be great for the remainder of his contract. 4) The difference between Manny’s contract and production is (rougly) equal to the difference between Maggs’s contract and production. That difference is a sunk cost the Tigers have to pay one way or the other.
To make this trade happen I think the Tigers have to add money and/or a pitching prospect (Tata?)
Other advantages to this trade for Detroit and Boston: 1) Detroit’s offense is better and defense is not reduced (I’m assuming Thames and Maggs are worth about the same defensively in RF) 2) Red Sox get some pitching and/or fix their budget 3) Red Sox ownership looks like they are “getting rid” of Manny’s onerous contract.
Down-sides:
1) Manny might be annoying to deal with 2) Tigers budget is still bad 3) There might be something better out there.
I do agree, Detroit won’t be getting its fair share out of Magglio’s 15M, but they had to overpay and he is part of the reason we’ll be watching playoff baseball. Hopefully the added money (in terms of media contracts, ad sales, ticket sales, future free agent costs) makes that salary cost a lot less.
I see the logic in trading for Manny — Boston’s salary reduction and it gets a pitcher — but I don’t know if Boston would do it. He does only have two more years guaranteed remaining, club options for the final two. Maybe they’d do it for a quality pitcher but I think they’d want to get someone younger than Magglio in any case. I don’t think I’d want to do it either. Manny’s a good player and all, but he wouldn’t be my first choice. I’ll say this, you put together something a lot more realistic than you typically see people come up with.