The Real Magic Number
posted in Remaining Schedules, The Stretch Run |If you look at standings online or read the Free Press or other newspapers, the Magic Number is 14. The playoff number is 12. But if you look at the RIOT number, calculated by Cal Berkeley, it reads 12 for the division and 10 for playoffs. Why the difference? RIOT takes into account remaining schedule and calculates “at least a tie. But we don’t want a tie, we want a clinch. You could add 1 to each number to get the clinch numbers, but that doesn’t give a complete picture.
Background
Minnesota hosts Chicago for the final three games of the season for each team. Due to this and the close battle among three teams for two playoff spots, things are very interrelated. What improves Minnesota’s chances of winning the division improves Detroit’s chances of winning the wildcard. What improves Detroit’s chances of winning the division actually makes it more difficult for the Tigers to otherwise win the wildcard. So it can get confusing pretty quick.
I will show the four scenerios that can occur as a result of this series, so we can see the clinch number for both division and wildcard based on each scenerio. A warning, this is going to get numbery, but if you follow it, you’ll understand why looking at the magic number or elimination number isn’t quite right. If you want, just read the bold for all you really need to know. The chart at the bottom tells the number of Detroit wins needed for guaranteed clinches, but you need the bold text to fully explain the chart.
Finally, in case of ties, you need to know this. If the tie is for the division title between two teams, the head-to-head winner wins the division, and the loser wins the wildcard. Chicago has the edge over the Tigers, and the Tigers have the edge over the Twins. If the tie for the wildcard, Detroit hosts Minnesota, and Chicago hosts Detroit due to coin toss. If all 3 teams tie, all hell breaks loose.
If a team sweeps
Based on each team having 15 remaining games at this point, the extreme scenerios follow:
If Chicago sweeps Minnesota, the Twins can have no more than 98 wins and the White Sox can have at maximum 99 wins.
If Minnesota sweeps Chicago, the Twins can have as many as 101 wins and the White Sox 96.
Both of those scenerios are based on the teams going undefeated otherwise. Either one or none of these scenerios will occur, both cannot. Also, as it is unlikely any team goes undefeated at this point, you can add Detroit wins plus the number of losses the chosen opponent needs to come up with the same clinch number. Each time the team behind loses, the team ahead needs one fewer win for the results to remain the same.
So if a Chicago sweep occurs, Detroit must have 99 wins to guarantee the playoffs because Minnesota can win 98 games max. That’s 11 wins as the absolute worst Detroit must do to guarantee playoffs. Ten wins guarantees a playoff-playoff because each Detroit and Minnesota would have 98 wins and Chicago would win the division with 99. If Minnesota and Detroit tie for the wildcard, Detroit hosts the 1-game playoff. Again, worst case, Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses (outside Chicago sweeping them) would have to equal 11 for guaranteed playoffs, and Detroit wins plus Chicago losses would have to equal 12 for guaranteed division. If Chicago and Detroit tied for the division at 99 wins, the White Sox win it on head-to-head. So we add 1 to get 12.
I find this scenerio of Chicago sweeping in the Metrodome unlikely. This is the absolute worst case or the playoffs.
If Minnesota sweeps Chicago, Detroit wins plus Chicago losses (outside the Twins series) would have to equal 9 to guarantee playoffs. Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses would have to equal 13 for the division, as they would both tie at 101 wins and Detroit owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.
So you see, this is the best case for making the playoffs but it makes winning the division that much harder. Frankly, that’s fine by me, I want to make the playoffs.
If the teams split
Next up, if Chicago takes two wins from Minnesota. Chicago can win as many as 98, Minnesota can win as many as 99, Detroit needs a combination of 11 wins plus either Minnesota or Chicago losses to guarantee playoffs and the division. Both Minnesota and Detroit would have a max 99 wins, and Detroit owns the tiebreaker in that case. 10 is a guarantee of nothing but a playoff game. We don’t like that.
That’s slightly more likely.
Finally, the most likely scenerio in my mind: If Minnesota takes two wins from Chicago, the Twins can win as many as 100 and Chicago can win as many as 97. In this case, Detroit wins plus Chicago losses must equal 10 to guarantee playoffs and 12 to guarantee the division.
I hope this explanation has been some help, or, at least, you look at the right numbers rather than the highly publicized ones. On the chart, C means the number of games Detroit wins plus Chicago losses must equal for that scenerio to occur, and M means Detroit wins plus Minnesota losses for that scenerio to occur.
Chart outdated.
| Scenerio | For Division | For Playoffs |
| Chicago sweeps | 9 (C) | 10 (M) |
| Minnesota sweeps | 12 (M) | 8 (C) |
| Chicago takes 2 | 10 (M/C) | 8 (M/C) |
| Minnesota takes 2 | 11 (M) | 9 (C) |
I finally got the formatting right, so I\’m not going to mess around and just make this update as a comment.
If you find I\’ve made a mistake, please post your scenerio that shows it. I have gone over everything carefully and double checked, but certainly I am not above messing something up! If this checks out perfect I\’ll add it to the sidebar and keep it updated.
You’re a braver man than I for diving head first into that analysis. After reading that, my head exploded…
Wild card, division, doesn’t make a difference, I just want a playoff spot. When it comes right down to it though, the Tigers just need to win games, and the rest will take care of itself.
I just confused the hell out of a friend. Let me put it like this.
For a guarantee to occur, find the highest number in the column. For division, that’s 13. For wildcard, that’s 11.
And you’re right Al, the Tigers control their destiny right now and the Tigers team of July would probably get like 9 or 10 wins out of the remaining schedule. I just hope for 7 and I feel everything workso out fine.
[...] The Magic Number is an easy concept to undertand, but it isn’t always the most accurate measure. Kurt has taken it upon himself to explore the various permutations to explain what the Tigers real clinch number is. [...]
[...] The Tigers can nearly eliminate the White Sox by Wednesday. Will they? Probably not. Playing in Chicago gives me nightmares, and the White Sox must now enter desperation mode. But it’s possible, and you can tell by looking at the numbers and remaining schedules, a wild card is quite likely at this point. [...]
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