Baseball Prospectus: Big name batter most important to Sox
posted in Analysis, Chicago White Sox, trade rumors |While the Tigers look at Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Bobby Abreu, Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver put up the mirror to find which team needs to make an acquisition the most. The results were surprising. It wasn’t Detroit. It wasn’t even Minnesota. It was the White Sox — 8 1/2 games behind the Tigers and 1/2 game behind the Yankees for the wildcard — despite being a leading run-scorer in the American League.
It’s not that the Tigers or Twins wouldn’t benefit, but Silver doesn’t feel they need anyone. Meanwhile, with the struggling Scott Podsednik and so-so Brian Anderson in Chicago’s outfield, the aforementioned trade commodities would help plug those holes.
The White Sox and Cardinals are employing players who simply don’t have any place in a playoff-caliber outfield. Meanwhile, the Tigers and the Twins–if PECOTA’s optimistic projection for Jason Kubel is to be believed–are getting by relatively well with the status quo. …
The White Sox stand the most to gain by making an acquisition, nearly a 20% increase in their playoff odds by acquiring Abreu.
I don’t disagree with the fact the Tigers don’t need to make a move to make the playoffs. (Baseball Prospectus puts their odds more than 95% at this point.) However, my fear is that the Twins actually win the wildcard, and the Tigers are forced to take on a pair of left-handed pitchers for up to four of seven games — and I’ve already documented how they hit against lefties — the pounding of Cliff Lee Monday notwithstanding. That is why your season-long statistics come up short in the playoffs.
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