Tigers batters buck trend
posted in Analysis, Random |You know how it goes. Right-handed batters take on left-handed pitchers better. Left-handed batters take on right-handed pitchers better. And that the Tigers are loaded with righties. So you expect a breakdown of the splits will find the Tigers tarring lefties, and struggling against righties, right? Not so. Detroit flipped the script.
Take a look at the splits at ESPN.com. Detroit is ranked 12th in OPS (.727) against lefties of 14 teams, ahead of Baltimore and Seattle. They’re 13th in OBP (.316), and 10th in slugging. And a home run comes once every 34.5 at bats. If you had to guess, just based on those numbers alone, you’d think the Tigers need to trade for a right-handed batter, wouldn’t you?
So let’s flip the pitcher. Tigers splits versus righties. Their .804 OPS is good for fifth. Their .469 slugging is good for third. And the .336 OBP stinks, ranking them ninth. And one home run per 26 at bats.
For the life of me, this looks like a left-handed heavy batting lineup. It makes you question the whole righty-vs.-lefty concept. If the sample size was not nearly 100 games into the season, you might think eventually the Tigers will bat well against lefties and struggle against righties. That it hasn’t happened makes me think this team just operates in strange ways.
So when trading deadline comes, I’m not so sure they’re looking for that left-handed bat everyone sees. Yeah, you’d like to have it. But it doesn’t seem like you need it. The preferred solutions initially answered the two problems you see in this lineup:
- An inability to get on base consistently — which Bobby Abreu answered against either handed pitcher.
- An inability to hit lefties — which Alfonso Soriano answered. Soriano also answered the third problem, a lack of speed.
And, by the way, the Minnesota Twins have a pair of good ones who Detroit will see this weekend.
David Delucci has been spoken about a bit, but he struggles against lefties. So he exasperates the problem in order to get a cosmetic fix. He has plattooned so much he is just 0-for-4 against left-handed pitchers this year. Daryle Ward? Same problem. Matt Stairs? Sorry, I cringe. Same problem. I think any of the situational names that have been brought up likely suffer from the same problem, but please let me know in comments if you find a guy who doesn’t.
So who do I like?
I like Carlos Lee of the Milwaukee Brewers as a name you don’t hear, but he doesn’t really solve the problem any better than a left-handed batter will. He doesn’t get on base a whole lot more than the Tigers average, either. I just happen to like him. Hey, I can admit that!
I really like Shawn Green of the Diamondbacks as a guy who doesn’t have holes against pitchers from either side of the mound either. He doesn’t have a lot of power against either side of the mound, but he has consistency against bot hand stands at the let side of the plate. Plus, cosmetically, he’s a lefty.
Problem is, both those guys have teams that may be in the wild card race in the dismal National League. Juan Pierre could be an intriguing guy, though he doesn’t really get on base as much as you need him to. But maybe he’d surprise AL pitchers for two months. But he fixes the speed problem and he’s a lefty.
Here’s my solution. Let me preface it with three words: Never. Gonna. Happen. Miguel Cabrera, who Florida insists isn’t on the trading block, is the answer. He beats the tar out of the ball against both sides of the mound.
Soriano is the best solution to the Tigers’ problems. Abreu would have been a fine answer but I don’t see it happening. The main problem, contrary to popular opinion, is they can’t hit lefties. (And, they can’t get on base against anybody). Rather than fix the actual deficit, people keep looking for the conventional fix and would only make the team more off keel. I think Dave Dombrowski knows that, otherwise he would not even sniff around for Soriano this year other than testing the waters. Dombrowski wants him for a reason.
And second, this whole conventional wisdom about lefties and righties is really blown out of proportion. For the role-playing guys, yes. But it’s by no means something you can assume across the board. What the Tigers need is a consistent batter who can hit off either side of the mound. And to get that, you gotta get a star. Otherwise you’re better off with a right-handed situational batter.
Without a move, the big hole against left-handed pitchers scares me in a short series. You do not want to see Minnesota make the playoffs.
Sphere It
[...] I don’t disagree with the fact the Tigers don’t need to make a move to make the playoffs. (Baseball Prospectus puts their odds more than 95% at this point.) However, my fear is that the Twins actually win the wildcard, and the Tigers are forced to take on a pair of left-handed pitchers for up to four of seven games — and I’ve already documented how they hit against lefties — the pounding of Cliff Lee Monday notwithstanding. That is why your season-long statistics come up short in the playoffs. [...]