There’s a runner on third…
posted in Analysis, Random, Sabermetrics |Quick quiz. There’s a runner on third and you need him driven home. Who’s your Tiger?
If your Tiger is Magglio Ordonez, you are a good observer. Maggs has been in that situation 47 times. He drove in 19 for a 40.4% success rate. I picked that statistic up by checking out Baseball Prospectus’ RBI report this morning and doing a little math. (Only subscribers can set it to seek out Tigers specifically, but you can browse, I believe, if you’re not a subscriber.) I thought I’d look at “other” RBIs, that is, the number of RBIs a batter has that don’t include scoring himself on a home run. On the whole, Magglio has driven in about 19% of all runners on base, 28% in scoring position. He’s driven in 46 runners when you take away times he drove himself in. He has the most chances (124) in scoring position, but he’s got the best overall percent of Tigers, too, with 19%.
The best Tiger by percentage, however, was Placido Polanco, who drove in 33% of those in scoring position and more than half of runners on third (16 of 31). He just hasn’t had as many opportunities (77 total, 31 with a runner on third). I’m sure his success rate is pretty high because his contact rate is pretty high.
Vance Wilson in limited chances and Curtis Granderson are also pretty successful. Granderson is about 29% of guys in scoring position.
So who’s not your Tiger? If you said Chris Shelton, again, you’re pretty observant. He has just 26 others-RBIs for a rate of about 16% and has knocked in 11.6% overall. Marcus Thames has only 12 others-RBIs for a 17% success rate with runners in scoring position. And Craig Monroe is about 19.8% with runners in scoring position.
Ramon Santiago, Omar Infante and Alexis Gomez, in limited chances, do not do so well, as you’d probably expect.
Inge, surprisingly for all his strikeouts, falls in the middle with 23.4%. He trails Pudge (25.5%) and Carlos Guillen (26.4%) for success.
There’s a lot of different statistics to check out over there. I’m going to try to find something interesting and fresh every day during the All-Star break.
UPDATE: In case you wondered, and because Lynn Henning keeps hammering the Bobby Abreu thing, Abreu leads the Phillies with a 19.3% success rate with runners on any base and has knocked in 38 of 133 runners in scoring position for 28.6%. He’s successful nearly 50% of the time a runner is on third, however, and has driven in 19 guys from first when he shows off his power. For full disclosure, a trade for Abreu would please me more than any other move, though I find it unlikely to occur.
Sphere It
[...] Some inconclusion on his fielding. Detroit Tigers Weblog points out he at -4 fielding at first base. Rather not good. Baseball America believes Casey is a defensive upgrade: “Casey doesn’t have Shelton’s pop—his power ranks near the bottom among big league starting first basemen—but he’s a better hitter and fielder” I’m not sure where I think Casey will bat. He seems like a #2 sort of guy, though I can’t imagine he has #2 speed. And he just looks slower than Polanco. It’s possible he’s more of a #6 or #7 guy for that reason. So let’s just take a look at his RBI opportunities at Baseball Prospectus. He’s brought a runner in from third 16 of 23 times (69.6 percent). That’s better than Polanco, the best Tiger percentagewise. He’s just 6-for-57 with a runner on second, however, for 10.5 percent. Rather putrid. It’s a combined 27.5 percent. In both cases he’s an upgrade on Shelton. Take a look here for a snapshot of where Detroit was at earlier this month. [...]